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From some recent reading of mine, it seems that the Tokugawa shogunate was undergoing some quite serious crises(famines, the eruption of Mt. Asama in 1783 that worsened the famine, the burning of Kyoto in 1790, and the shoguns Ienari and Iheharu being somewhat mediocre at best) in the late 18th century to the point where there were serious fears that the regime would fall. What if the Tokugawa didn't weather them as well as it did OTL and fell(or at least went to roughly around 1790/1810? Who would come to power and who would pick up the pieces? How much would Russia take advantage of this?
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