PC/WI: Early Tokugawa collapse

From some recent reading of mine, it seems that the Tokugawa shogunate was undergoing some quite serious crises(famines, the eruption of Mt. Asama in 1783 that worsened the famine, the burning of Kyoto in 1790, and the shoguns Ienari and Iheharu being somewhat mediocre at best) in the late 18th century to the point where there were serious fears that the regime would fall. What if the Tokugawa didn't weather them as well as it did OTL and fell(or at least went to roughly around 1790/1810? Who would come to power and who would pick up the pieces? How much would Russia take advantage of this?
 

Delvestius

Banned
Russia would have been too concerned with Poland and checking the power of Prussia (and eventually guarding from any threat of Napoleon) to concern themselves with Japan. As far as who would take power, there's one of three outcomes. Most likely is that a powerful family would rise up and usurp power to become the new Shogun, this clan probably being a northern descendant of the Fujiwara, as opposed to a Southern Minamoto family. If no party is strong enough to claim sole leadership, then Japan would surely fall into a civil war, perhaps even a Sengoku #2.

Perhaps this failure of the Shogunate would prompt those who despised it to throw their lot in with the Emperor, which isn't that far out of the question. The Choshu and Satsuma clans in the south were very powerful and had contempt for the Tokugawa Shogunate, and were the strongest supporteres of the Imperial restoration during the Boshin war of 1868.
 

FDW

Banned
I think a later Sengoku period would be a possibility, though things would likely resolve themselves more quickly than the Sengoku period did OTL.
 
If the Tokugawa collapse then forget a Boshin War, as it was only due to the Tokugawa Shoguns perceived weakness that the emperor was able to gain supporters, If anything it will be another civil war and if it lasts rather, European powers could definitely take control and maybe even create spheres of influence.
 
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