alternatehistory.com

so, a few months ago, i started a discussion regarding the earliest possible WWI with the earliest possible casus belli. So far, the most suggested scenario woukd be during the 1908 Bosnian Annexation Crisis, primarily between Austria-Hungary and Russia. The name of the crisis says it all: the austro-hungarians move forth to annex Bosnia (which they were occupying since 1878), the russians and their balkan allies see it as an unacceptable manoeuver, the crisis ends with a treaty signed in Berlin that practically gives it all to the austrians after the russians and serbians back down.

According to Wikipedia (forgive me):
"Cognizant of Aehrenthal's rumored Jewish heritage, Izvolsky exploded, remarking "The dirty Jew has deceived me. He lied to me, he bamboozled me, that frightful Jew."[21] To bring Izvolsky to heel, Austria-Hungary threatened to release and then ultimately began leaking documents, in which, over the course of the previous 30 years, Russia had agreed that Austria-Hungary had a free hand to do as it liked with Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Sanjak of Novi Pazar. These documents were an embarrassment to Russia, especially with regard to its relations with Serbia. Czar Nicholas II wrote to Emperor Franz-Joseph and accused Austria-Hungary of betraying a confidence and relations between the two countries were permanently damaged. Under Germany’s advice, Austria-Hungary kept in confidence the 2 July and 23 September correspondence from Izvolsky to Aehrenthal and these were a continued threat to Izvolsky’s position if Russia did not firmly and publicly accept amendment of Article 25 of the Treaty of Berlin to accept the annexation."

...but what if the austria never found the documents to justify its annexation, or what if they never even existed? Would the czar not feel humiliated and end up declaring war? If the lack of such documents still isn't enough for WWI to break out in 1908, then what is a good PoD?
Now, let's assume war breaks out in such a scenario:
-Who eill be Serbia and Russia's allies, and who will be Austria-Hungary's allies?
-Which side has a bigger chance of winning? Will Russia win because the tech gap is smaller, or will they lose?
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