PC/WI: Bosnian Annexation Crisis leads to war

so, a few months ago, i started a discussion regarding the earliest possible WWI with the earliest possible casus belli. So far, the most suggested scenario woukd be during the 1908 Bosnian Annexation Crisis, primarily between Austria-Hungary and Russia. The name of the crisis says it all: the austro-hungarians move forth to annex Bosnia (which they were occupying since 1878), the russians and their balkan allies see it as an unacceptable manoeuver, the crisis ends with a treaty signed in Berlin that practically gives it all to the austrians after the russians and serbians back down.

According to Wikipedia (forgive me):
"Cognizant of Aehrenthal's rumored Jewish heritage, Izvolsky exploded, remarking "The dirty Jew has deceived me. He lied to me, he bamboozled me, that frightful Jew."[21] To bring Izvolsky to heel, Austria-Hungary threatened to release and then ultimately began leaking documents, in which, over the course of the previous 30 years, Russia had agreed that Austria-Hungary had a free hand to do as it liked with Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Sanjak of Novi Pazar. These documents were an embarrassment to Russia, especially with regard to its relations with Serbia. Czar Nicholas II wrote to Emperor Franz-Joseph and accused Austria-Hungary of betraying a confidence and relations between the two countries were permanently damaged. Under Germany’s advice, Austria-Hungary kept in confidence the 2 July and 23 September correspondence from Izvolsky to Aehrenthal and these were a continued threat to Izvolsky’s position if Russia did not firmly and publicly accept amendment of Article 25 of the Treaty of Berlin to accept the annexation."

...but what if the austria never found the documents to justify its annexation, or what if they never even existed? Would the czar not feel humiliated and end up declaring war? If the lack of such documents still isn't enough for WWI to break out in 1908, then what is a good PoD?
Now, let's assume war breaks out in such a scenario:
-Who eill be Serbia and Russia's allies, and who will be Austria-Hungary's allies?
-Which side has a bigger chance of winning? Will Russia win because the tech gap is smaller, or will they lose?
 
I'm not sure Russia was ready for war in 1908. They suffered the Japanese debacle and the Revolution only three years before.
 
I'm not sure Russia was ready for war
I disagree. Nicholas II was already kind of a bellicose guy -- if he wasn't, we wouldn't see Russia declaring war in 1914 over a murder investigation. I personally believe the bosnian annexation is as valid a casus belli as FF's assassination.
About the instability, it had already calmed down by 1908 -- Nicholas enacted both political (half-assed) and military (decent) reforms after 1905.
 
I disagree. Nicholas II was already kind of a bellicose guy -- if he wasn't, we wouldn't see Russia declaring war in 1914 over a murder investigation. I personally believe the bosnian annexation is as valid a casus belli as FF's assassination.
About the instability, it had already calmed down by 1908 -- Nicholas enacted both political (half-assed) and military (decent) reforms after 1905.
I contest you reducing the Serbian crisis to a "murder investigation". What Austria-Hungary demanded was nothing short of the end of Serbia's sovereignty, and at the time Nicholas II tried to defuse the situation but was somewhat forced to be "bellicose" by the necessities of mobilization in case Austria acted on its ultimatum.
 
I contest you reducing the Serbian crisis to a "murder investigation". What Austria-Hungary demanded was nothing short of the end of Serbia's sovereignty, and at the time Nicholas II tried to defuse the situation but was somewhat forced to be "bellicose" by the necessities of mobilization in case Austria acted on its ultimatum.
Yes, but Bosnia's annexation was also an earlier threat to Serbia -- the russians almost practically saw the 1914 ultimatum coming, and wanted to prevent Serbia from being next on the dinner plate.
Practically, the whole 1914 ultimatum crisis was a result of Nicholas II's pan-slavic aspirations in the balkans. If the russian czar was a bit less protective of the serbs, WWI would have been confined to just Serbia and Austria.
I just don't want to derail the discussion too much. Say, how willing were the french to go to war back in 1908?
 
There's no Haber process yet so if Britain joins up its pretty well game over for Germany. But Britain in 1908 doesn't have the same vitriol for Germany that it does in 1914, and that was a near-run declaration of war, 1908 might see Britain more reluctant to enter.

Russia is in a bad place though. The military of 1908 wasn't nearly what it was in 1914, and the attempted 1905 revolution showed cracks in Russian strength. It wouldn't take much of a push to get Russia knocked out.

There's a good chance that the Balkans explode if a general European war breaks out and that could go any which way.
 
There's no Haber process yet so if Britain joins up its pretty well game over for Germany. But Britain in 1908 doesn't have the same vitriol for Germany that it does in 1914, and that was a near-run declaration of war, 1908 might see Britain more reluctant to enter.
What about France, the OE, and Italy?
How likely is France to join the war to honour the alliance they made back in 1893? They surely won't like having their big and practically only ally Russia defeated and incapacitated.
The ottomans were in nominal control of Bosnia and Sandzak before the annexation. Would they join against Austria to try and get at least the Sandzak back? How will Serbia react?
Italy was still in the CP at that point. Will they remain neutral, join the rest of the CP, or betray them and join the entente?
 
What about France, the OE, and Italy?
How likely is France to join the war to honour the alliance they made back in 1893? They surely won't like having their big and practically only ally Russia defeated and incapacitated.
The ottomans were in nominal control of Bosnia and Sandzak before the annexation. Would they join against Austria to try and get at least the Sandzak back? How will Serbia react?
Italy was still in the CP at that point. Will they remain neutral, join the rest of the CP, or betray them and join the entente?

The Ottomans would join against Austria if Austria annexes the "Sandzak" (ie. Novi Pazar region) or refuses to evacuate troops from it. Otherwise, the OE probably stays neutral. It may then indirectly benefit the Entente by forcing Bulgaria to stay away from the CP camp...but it's quite possible that Bulgaria would have stayed neutral anyway.

Italy will also be neutral, unless Vienna agrees to immediate territorial compensations in Trentino etc. (which is highly unlikely). It may later join the war against Austria if it looks like a good opportunity.
 
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I think the Ottomans sit it out, the Balkans were a powder keg and if the Ottomans do anything other sit on their hands the opposition will arm and support everyone willing to fire a gun against them.

Any intervention against Austria can always draw in the Italians too and then it's just a free for all and boils down to who can claim what before the Turks throw in the towel.
 
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