PC/WI: Anglo-Russian War between 1870 and 1890

Osakadave · Sep 24, 2016

I've thought off and on about doing a TL based on the idea of no Alaska Purchase leading to a British Alaska. One of the primary motivations for Russia's sale of Alaska was the fear that they would loose it to either the US or the British. Usually, when the question of no Alaska purchase is brought up, the assumption is that Russia will hold on to Alaska until some point in the 20th C.

But what if Russia's fears were realized?

OTL, the purchase was popular, but let's say the treaty isn't approved - maybe Greeley leads a better campaign against it. So, if we start from 1867

There were several occassions where the two came close to war - primarily the Anglo-Russian Crisis of 1877-8 and the Panjdeh incident in 1885, but with the butterflies of no sale of Alaska, there would probably be something else that could go wrong, including the Brirish enter/get pulled into one of the other power's wars against Russia.

So, assuming the US doesn't purchase and that there is an Anglo-Russian war sometime between 1870 and 1890, what would be the most likely cause and what would be the wider effects effects?

Osakadave · Sep 25, 2016

raharris1973 · Sep 25, 2016

Britain can grab Alaska at their leisure in any late 19th century war they want to.

Given that Alaska did not change hands in the Crimean War, it is not guaranteed that Britain *would* take it. Also, I think that reinforces the case that Alaska, by itself, would not be where the war starts because it is not worth enough. However, in a Russo-British war that causes enough bitter feelings, Alaska can become west Yukon for sure.

Wendell · Sep 25, 2016

I think a better POD would be to escalate the Russo-Turkish War to involve Britain.

zert · Sep 25, 2016

Well if Russia and Britain did get into a hot war and the Great Game failed, the British might try to get a few ships and troops from Canada to take Alaska. This would stop any possible Russian incursions into Canada.

They might then try to use ships based in Alaska to disrupt/destroy Russian whalers and bases in Siberia.

raharris1973 · Sep 25, 2016

Wendell said:
I think a better POD would be to escalate the Russo-Turkish War to involve Britain.

This is far more likely to lead to an Anglo-Russian war than anything in Alaska or the Pacific. However, by this point, Alaska is American.

Osakadave · Sep 26, 2016

Note that the preliminary POD I have in mind is that the US doesn't buy Alaska. The question presumes that Britain will take it at some point in an Anglo-Russoan War.

What I'm asking is when and to what effect?

zert · Sep 26, 2016

Could a more militant Russia have pushed things during the First Anglo-Afghan War and caused things to spill into a full War?

Wendell · Oct 1, 2016

Osakadave said:
Note that the preliminary POD I have in mind is that the US doesn't buy Alaska. The question presumes that Britain will take it at some point in an Anglo-Russoan War.

What I'm asking is when and to what effect?

The best knock-on effect is still the POD I offered above, but I think any POD after the Crimean War, short of a Southern victory in the U.S. civil war negates the possibility of a British Alaska.

raharris1973 · Oct 1, 2016

Osakadave said:
Note that the preliminary POD I have in mind is that the US doesn't buy Alaska. The question presumes that Britain will take it at some point in an Anglo-Russoan War.

What I'm asking is when and to what effect?

Osakadave - the 1870s or 1880s or 1900 or 1905 are when British-Russian war could happen, over the straits in the 70s, the Asian frontier or straits in the 80s, the Boer War in 1900, or the Dogger Bank incident.

Although there is much stacked against them, and 1870s or 1880s PoD is much more plausible for a British Alaska than a 20th century one. Your guess is as good as mine as to when Alaska would get Canadian provincehood. Yukon hasn't yet.

If the British take Alaska in the 1870s or 1880s I imagine the territory would federate with Canada and the Canadian Pacific coast might be developed more. A prolonged British interest in an independent Hawaii might be a knock-on effect. If there is a Russian Revolution, there could be a British-Canadian intervention in the extreme Russian Far East

Perhaps a reason why Britain could be more prone to annex Alaska in a later war with Russia than the Crimean War would be because appealing to Canadian opinion is more important by this time, and the Provincial government of British Columbia stirs up interest.