PC/WI: Allied Democratic Japan vs. Axis China in WWII?

I know there was a similar thread about this (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-wi-axis-china-and-allied-japan.377683/) but still worth discussing.

So what would it take for a post-1900 POD to have an Imperial Japan that retains its Taisho Democracy (though with ironically Showa onboard) go up against a KMT ruled China (or at least some more authoritarian offshoot of the KMT) in WWII? I'm quite well aware of Japan's industrial advantage over China as well as the Anglo-American distrust of Japanese influence in the early 20th century, but as I said in that thread the best way to have China be somewhat strong to take on Japan is to have the KMT in power sooner than OTL.
 
Last edited:
Butterflies I see:
Chiang's legacy is possibly much worse than ITTL
Japan doesn't lose any territory in WWII; Sakhalin is still split in two
China is a major theater in WWII
Japan's image in popular culture is different
Indochina gets independent later
 
Butterflies I see:
Chiang's legacy is possibly much worse than ITTL
Japan doesn't lose any territory in WWII; Sakhalin is still split in two
China is a major theater in WWII
Japan's image in popular culture is different
Indochina gets independent later
Come to think of it, there wouldn't be much naval conflict in TTL's WWII given that China's navy is pathetically small (even if it manages to make a decent one), and that people of Chinese descent would get discriminated for a while in the same manner as those from German and Japanese backgrounds did IOTL in WWs I and II respectively.
 
the policy of USSR here, at first glance they probably like Germany cooperating with China as counterpoint to Japan? but they also do not care for strong unified China?
 
Consider that in the aftermath of the Second World War, the Soviet Union is going to be concerned about the threat posed by Allied Occupied China bordering the Soviet state. This could mean that the northern half of the country (e.g. Manchuria) is occupied by the Soviets, and certainly subject to border conflicts. Also consider that China's fighting in 1938 would certainly the Soviet Union into a two-front war which would present the possibility of the collapse of Stalin's government by 1942....
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
China is a major theater in WWII
Japan's image in popular culture is different
Indochina gets independent later
China was already a major theater. Of course, the potential of a join Soviet-Japanese invasion makes it an even bigger one. Everything about Japanese culture and the foreign view of Japan would be different, not just the popular culture. Japan might still invade French Indochina, although if it was Allied-leaning it would claim to be doing so in order to deny the colony’s rubber to the Axis - French Indochina was loyal to Petain. Instead of a unilateral Japanese occupation it could be a joint British-Japanese invasion.
 
Problem is, to make Germany bother allying with China, you'd need an ASB to turn China into a middle power of sorts.
 
Maybe a successful Northern Expedition wipes out the Chinese Communists, the German Military Mission to China is more successful in reforming the KMT’s forces and Chiang Kai-Shek feels more confident about going to war with the Japanese?
 
Maybe a successful Northern Expedition wipes out the Chinese Communists, the German Military Mission to China is more successful in reforming the KMT’s forces and Chiang Kai-Shek feels more confident about going to war with the Japanese?
(boy I wish I had a screencap of one of the relatives from Summer Wars sayin' "We have a winner" to sum up my point but I digress)

Something like that, though my best bet is having the Warlord era end earlier than OTL.

Consider that in the aftermath of the Second World War, the Soviet Union is going to be concerned about the threat posed by Allied Occupied China bordering the Soviet state. This could mean that the northern half of the country (e.g. Manchuria) is occupied by the Soviets, and certainly subject to border conflicts. Also consider that China's fighting in 1938 would certainly the Soviet Union into a two-front war which would present the possibility of the collapse of Stalin's government by 1942....

I was going to respond to you in a PM but heh I'll give my thoughts here.

With an Axis China, the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact aspect would be greatly affected as both regimes had invested in the KMT; either they would somewhat cooperate altogether as an unofficial "Sino-German-Soviet" Axis (though Germany and China would plot to backstab the USSR after they "win"; Italy would still be a wildcard in this whole situation) or not, more akin to OTL only with China in place of Japan and ironically fighting the USSR.
 
Maybe a successful Northern Expedition wipes out the Chinese Communists, the German Military Mission to China is more successful in reforming the KMT’s forces and Chiang Kai-Shek feels more confident about going to war with the Japanese?
Yes, but a surviving Taisho government system would create so many butterflies that there wouldn't be any grounds for Chiang to go to war with Japan.
 
the policy of USSR here, at first glance they probably like Germany cooperating with China as counterpoint to Japan? but they also do not care for strong unified China?

Consider that in the aftermath of the Second World War, the Soviet Union is going to be concerned about the threat posed by Allied Occupied China bordering the Soviet state. This could mean that the northern half of the country (e.g. Manchuria) is occupied by the Soviets, and certainly subject to border conflicts. Also consider that China's fighting in 1938 would certainly the Soviet Union into a two-front war which would present the possibility of the collapse of Stalin's government by 1942....

With an Axis China, the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact aspect would be greatly affected as both regimes had invested in the KMT; either they would somewhat cooperate altogether as an unofficial "Sino-German-Soviet" Axis (though Germany and China would plot to backstab the USSR after they "win"; Italy would still be a wildcard in this whole situation) or not, more akin to OTL only with China in place of Japan and ironically fighting the USSR.

my scheme was for Axis Germany-Spain-China https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/axis-germany-spain-china-how-to.441433/

if you end early or eclipse Spanish Civil War with a quick Nationalist coup then Germany and USSR are not on opposite sides of the conflict and you could have cooperation between the two, not an alliance but at least economic relations. THAT great facilitates Germany being able to at least REACH China, maybe/likely they complete the armament production factories inside China and build somewhat of an air force?

still think a rising China brings Soviet and Japanese interests into alignment (against China), there was recent thread about early Soviet-Japanese war? THAT might be the only way China could develop their military (somewhat) undetected and unmolested?

China would want to drive Japan out of Manchuria first before any conflict with USSR in (then) Sinkiang? so you are back to the same situation as historical, that Germany's Pacific ally unable or unwilling to aid against the Soviets? maybe China could decide (or be convinced) to evict the Soviets first? but that is at best a distraction for the Soviets.
 
How successful would the KMT be in pushing the Japanese out of Manchuria? Like I said above, the German Military Mission to China could be more successful so how effective would the Nationalists' forces be against the Imperial Japanese military?
 
How successful would the KMT be in pushing the Japanese out of Manchuria? Like I said above, the German Military Mission to China could be more successful so how effective would the Nationalists' forces be against the Imperial Japanese military?
Somewhat more successful with a more industrialized base and more manpower to throw at instead of being used on the communists and warlords, not to mention give the Japanese a hard time with modernized tactics provided if the IJA still retains its OTL ways minus the ultranationalist antics.
 
Top