PC/WI: 1960 South African Republic Referendum fails, Afrikaner secession?

So, basically, due to whatever factors, assume that, nationally, at least 51% of the politically enfranchised South African public decides to vote "no" for abandoning allegiance to Great Britain as a crown dominion in the 1960 referendum. South Africa does not quit the Commonwealth and does not become a republic, while the pro-apartheid National Party takes a bit of a blow to its image and confidence, at least among the pro-British regions. What happens after?
Could a racist-minded secessionist movement develop in the politically Afrikaner-dominated states of Orange and Transvaal? If Afrikaner nationalist sentiment regains ground, could we end up seeing a separation of SA between a "neo-Boer" state in Orange and Transvaal and a British dominion in Natal, with the Cape state undecided but leaning towards the pro-British side?
If South Africa does end up partitioned in two, how does this affect local politics and interstate relations in the African continent? Would "Afrikaner SA" ally with Rhodesia in order to counter growing black and coloured resentment against white minority rule? What about the less troubled Cape and Natal dominions?
 
I bet Rhodesia would still ally with the Cape. There wasn't enough incentive to declare UDI and side with the Afrikaners 5 years earlier.
 
Could a failed referendum cause a blow to the bantustan program? Perhaps dr Verwoerd gets the axe and it’s replaced by sauer who wanted to take the edge off apartheid like Botha, but 25 years earlier.
 
Natal being a bastion of the United Party they sought to create a black middle class and give the franchise to an elite, similar to Rhodesia and pre mau Kenya.
 
In OTL the referendum narrowly passed with 52% But with overwhelming opposition in Natal. However talks of Natal secession never went anywhere although Natal had attempted to ask for autonomy.

In a reverse scenario of a narrow defeat with the National Party still in government there isn't any reason for the reverse situation not to apply with no secessions and no extra autonomy.

What may happen though is that there is an explosive confrontation in the Commonwealth in early 1961 and either a lot of African and Asian countries leave or (far more likely) they get a declaration that Apartheid is incompatible with Commonwealth membership and South Africa is either sanctioned or suspended or both.

The National Government then uses this as a reason to hold a second republican referendum in 1961-1962 and this time clinches it as some pro-monarchy white South Africans feel abandoned by the Commonwealth and more remotely the monarchy (much as how many felt disconnected because of the Winds of Change speech by a British PM in South Africa's own Parliament in February 1960 ahead of the 1960 referendum). The second referendum is likely won by the Republican side perhaps with as much as 55-65% and the National Government uses this as a mandate to go for stronger changes than the minimalist changes of OTL (so stronger powers to the President and removal of the Union Jack in the national flag).
 
What were the 1960s like in South Africa? Was there chaos among the white population like there was in other English-speaking countries?
 
So, basically, due to whatever factors, assume that, nationally, at least 51% of the politically enfranchised South African public decides to vote "no" for abandoning allegiance to Great Britain as a crown dominion in the 1960 referendum. South Africa does not quit the Commonwealth and does not become a republic, while the pro-apartheid National Party takes a bit of a blow to its image and confidence, at least among the pro-British regions. What happens after?
Could a racist-minded secessionist movement develop in the politically Afrikaner-dominated states of Orange and Transvaal? If Afrikaner nationalist sentiment regains ground, could we end up seeing a separation of SA between a "neo-Boer" state in Orange and Transvaal and a British dominion in Natal, with the Cape state undecided but leaning towards the pro-British side?
If South Africa does end up partitioned in two, how does this affect local politics and interstate relations in the African continent? Would "Afrikaner SA" ally with Rhodesia in order to counter growing black and coloured resentment against white minority rule? What about the less troubled Cape and Natal dominions?

The Transvaal, especially around Johannesburg had (and still has) a large English-speaking population. I don't see any Afrikaner secession being possible. What is more likely is South Africa being split into a white state and a black state (or states), but with the black states being made more viable than the Bantustans were.

Also, why do people insist on calling the Orange Free State - Orange? I have never heard it called that in my life.
 
What were the 1960s like in South Africa? Was there chaos among the white population like there was in other English-speaking countries?

No, not to the extent we saw in the West, I think it's safe to say.

The '60s, especially the second half of the '60s, were pretty successful for white South Africa. The country was growing very fast, the ANC and PAC had been neutralised and black opposition was still weak, and the country hadn't been globally ostracised to the extent it would be in the 1980s.
 
Also more likely than Afrikaner secession is Natal secession. It was a possibility in OTL and it is quite possible that the Natalians could manage it. Expect a Rhodesia-on-Sea. It is unlikely that there will be full-on apartheid but English-speaking Natalians were not particularly liberal, probably less so than their counterparts in the Cape, and probably less so than English-speaking whites in Johannesburg.

Indians would likely have some sort of citizenship status, but it would be interesting to see what would happen to the Zulus.
 
Also more likely than Afrikaner secession is Natal secession. It was a possibility in OTL and it is quite possible that the Natalians could manage it. Expect a Rhodesia-on-Sea. It is unlikely that there will be full-on apartheid but English-speaking Natalians were not particularly liberal, probably less so than their counterparts in the Cape, and probably less so than English-speaking whites in Johannesburg.

That would definitely be interesting to see - particularly with Mozambique, Eswatini/Swaziland, and Lesotho as neighbors.

Indians would likely have some sort of citizenship status, but it would be interesting to see what would happen to the Zulus.

Well, we already can figure out no KwaZulu bantustan, that's for sure (as well as, if I'm reading the maps on Wikipedia correctly, that enclave of Transkei). Apart from that - yes, I agree.
 
Also more likely than Afrikaner secession is Natal secession. It was a possibility in OTL and it is quite possible that the Natalians could manage it. Expect a Rhodesia-on-Sea. It is unlikely that there will be full-on apartheid but English-speaking Natalians were not particularly liberal, probably less so than their counterparts in the Cape, and probably less so than English-speaking whites in Johannesburg.

Indians would likely have some sort of citizenship status, but it would be interesting to see what would happen to the Zulus.
South African provinces weren't like Canadian ones or American or Australian states. They were divisions of a unitary state and had only such power as were granted to them by the South Africa Act.
 
We're talking about a hypothetical independent Natal.
Well, okay.

If South Africa didn't recognize Natal, that would present the British with a knotty conundrum. Either they continue to recognize South Africa, and the British in Natal lose representation, or they recognize Natal and the English-speakers in South Africa lose representation. Either way there were many English immigrants to South Africa in the '60s, and it'd be interesting to see what'd happen to them.
 
I know natal wanted to bring tv into the country as early as 1960, 13 years before Rhodesian broadcasts could be seen and 16 years before a South African segregated network. They also supported a large increase in the education budget and a national lottery.
 
Well, okay.

If South Africa didn't recognize Natal, that would present the British with a knotty conundrum. Either they continue to recognize South Africa, and the British in Natal lose representation, or they recognize Natal and the English-speakers in South Africa lose representation. Either way there were many English immigrants to South Africa in the '60s, and it'd be interesting to see what'd happen to them.

If Natal secedes why would English speakers lose representation? There are large numbers of English speakers in Transvaal and the Cape (especially in the big cities) and even smaller numbers in the Free State.

Unless the Afrikaners implement some sort of language apartheid, which is close to ASB, it is unlikely English speakers will lose representation or any other civil rights.
 
If Natal secedes why would English speakers lose representation? There are large numbers of English speakers in Transvaal and the Cape (especially in the big cities) and even smaller numbers in the Free State.

Unless the Afrikaners implement some sort of language apartheid, which is close to ASB, it is unlikely English speakers will lose representation or any other civil rights.
I mean consular representation, sorry.

e: By the POD did South Africa have their own citizenship or did it still rely on the status of "British subject"?
 
It did have its own citizenship.
Perhaps the colored mixed race folks would be allowed to represent themselves in parliament rather as Botha set up in the 80’s.
The so called representive council hadn’t been created yet, Sol dolle, spoke about a desire to woo, responsible leaders at part of the commonwealth.
 
It did have its own citizenship.
Perhaps the colored mixed race folks would be allowed to represent themselves in parliament rather as Botha set up in the 80’s.
The so called representive council hadn’t been created yet, Sol dolle, spoke about a desire to woo, responsible leaders at part of the commonwealth.
I don't think that would happen. For one, the people who would lead the new Afrikaner Republic would be the same sort of people that had taken the vote away from the Cape Coloreds in the 50s.
 
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