PC: Venetian Resurgance in the 18th Century?

I do not believe that is possible for Venice to make a comeback în the 18th century.

Firstly there is the geopolitic situation. The Italian states, Venice included, were becoming for the last century or so small actors on a stage dominated more and more by vast territorial entities either centralised or in the course of centralising. In competing with the new "nation" states , the Italians survived only because there did not seem to be a consensus on how to divide the Italian territory between the Great Powers.

Secondly war was becoming expensive with the advance of new weapons and it was an uphill battle even for the Great Powers to fund their armies not to mention for Venice who cannot sustain for long an war of attrition.

Thirdly, the commercial axis of the world has shifted from the Mediteranean to the Atlantic Ocean so that means that Venice was not able to make outrageous amount of money anymore losing some lucrative colonies în the process.

Lastly, the Ottomans must not be taken lightly. They fought valiantly despite their internal Issues for a century more against a combination of christian states managing to inflict here and there some painful defeats to these coalitions.
 
I do not believe that is possible for Venice to make a comeback în the 18th century.

Firstly there is the geopolitic situation. The Italian states, Venice included, were becoming for the last century or so small actors on a stage dominated more and more by vast territorial entities either centralised or in the course of centralising. In competing with the new "nation" states , the Italians survived only because there did not seem to be a consensus on how to divide the Italian territory between the Great Powers.

Secondly war was becoming expensive with the advance of new weapons and it was an uphill battle even for the Great Powers to fund their armies not to mention for Venice who cannot sustain for long an war of attrition.

Thirdly, the commercial axis of the world has shifted from the Mediteranean to the Atlantic Ocean so that means that Venice was not able to make outrageous amount of money anymore losing some lucrative colonies în the process.

Lastly, the Ottomans must not be taken lightly. They fought valiantly despite their internal Issues for a century more against a combination of christian states managing to inflict here and there some painful defeats to these coalitions.
I dont believe anybody deny the two firsts but those were already true since a century if not more, and Venice was definitely stronger back in 1600 then in 1700 so a comeback by some meaning of the word is not impossible.

As for the Ottomans, obviously if you leave them anywhere near their power level of OTL in this era but there is no guarantees it necessarily need to be the case ITTL. A heavier defeat in the Great Turkish War could have definitely started their decline earlier and speed it up, so to speak... IMO some kind of Venetian resurgence is a perfectly plausible part of such a scenario.
 
I agree but IMO the biggest issue is that even if Venice does well the Ottomans are simply still too strong for them to not strike back at the first opportunity. IMO the best POD for this would be something that not only boost Morosini's campaigns but also more broadly prevent the Ottomans from somewhat regaining their footing after the direct aftermath of the Siege of Vienna, making the war significantly more disastrous for them then it was in OTL, bonus points for getting Charles II of Spain to survive a bit longer, therefore giving more time for Austria to continue to push south without having to turn west.
Crete, an island, should be easier to defend for Venice than the inland Morea, so there is more chance that Venice could it until Napoleon.

But, one thing that might be able to single-handedly turn around Venetian Republic is somehow gaining Lombardy, probably via trading away Dalmatia. Lombardy is very populous and wealthy. In addition, gaining a region as big as Lombardy/Milan, probably bigger than Venetia itself, on top of Greek Crete as mentioned above, would have likely forced the elite to make major concessions.
 
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Paradoxer

Banned
I'm not talking that Venice becomes a power that can compete with say, France or England, or that Venice becomes a colonial power of sorts, but more along the lines that the "Venetian Decline" post-Great Turkish War is halted. Venice is still seen as a "power to be reckoned with" along the lines of Savoy or Portugal. Is this at all possible? What would be the best case scenario?

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I think at worse they can be Dutch without colonies if pod around French Revolution. Basically they are first to industrialize in Italy. Possibly fastest in Mediterranean and maybe ahead of France especially if they retain parts of Po Valley and coal mines.

A mercantile legacy and a bit of hindering of entrenched elites but not as much so as aristocrats and monarchs in Austria or Russia. More oligarchs in nature and entrenched monopolies and outdated state capitalism. The Doge is likely less of a stagnant and reactionary to staunch conservative figure then most monarchs across Europe.

If they at least weather Napoleonic wars keeping their independence then they are in decent position to at least be more powerful then Sardinia Piedmont especially if they can get great powers to re established republic and doge in Genoa who becomes increasingly dependent on Venice for support. Maybe to weaken France they give Genoa Corsica(if Venice annex them into federation or confederation that helps them grow). Also cuts Sardinia Piedmont off from much of coastline in Italy. Sardinia Piedmont also more unwilling to trade France Nice due to it being one of its only major ports.

I see some here doubt Venice ability to expand in weakening ottomans but if Ottomans are in similar position as otl Venice if it industrialized early on that could wreck the outdated ottoman navy possibly destroy it. If they can do that they can at least take Greek islands.

Taking Athens and more of mainland would require army modernization. A professional standing but skilled/well trained army force even if not largest. It utilizes innovations in warfare and artillery along with engineer corps and similar reforms. Also would require better integration of Greek population by giving them at least equality with Venetians and later Italians within Greece itself. While also promoting closing divide between east/orthodox and west/Catholic with its expansion in Greece and against Ottomans. They also promote Greek Catholic Eastern Church.

Venice transition to more federation or confederation like system while expanding in Greece and Italy.

In Greece they get more local support by backing ambitious of Greek nationalist across Greece lands, Balkans, and Anatolia.

In Italy they back nationalist and republicans while playing both sides with papal state/pope.

They get backing of great powers with exception of Austria especially early on by playing itself up as buffer/counter influence against France. Prussia later Germany it’s biggest ally.

Venice likely adapts better to industrial Revolution then many monarch or ancien regimes. They just have high amount nepotism and cronyism to solve along with transitioning mercantile system to capitalist one. Less free trade and market then US but more so then rest of Europe.

The oligarchs likely try to retain control as much as they can but likely have most open voting system at times. Wealth and property base voting along with poll taxes and literacy or other similar requirements to keep middle and upper class having most influence in elections. The oligarchs likely have state capitalism or interventionist stance on government and economics.
 

Paradoxer

Banned
What could lead to such a trade being made though?
The great powers during concert of Europe after Napoleonic Wars give and back Austrians less or give them more land in south Catholic German lands after war while Venice is given much of otl Austrian lands in Italy after war which includes Lombardy. They can even keep Dalmatia too while Austria gets more in places like Bavaria and Baden.

Maybe they aren’t confident in Sardinia Piedmont fending off another French invasion by themselves so they make Venice stronger and Genoa is client or in commune with Venice Doge in case of French invasion. This leads to increased influence of Venice over Piedmont as well. Maybe they even give Genoa not just Corsica but Sardinia as well.

Venice also haggles for Parma, Tuscany, Modena, and Lucca to be republics under its sphere.

Unlike otl, they avoid Napoleonic Wars until near end when flipping on Napoleon when he looks weak. They are cordial with Republic and drift to neutrality and passiveness with Empire/Napoleon until his position looks weaker. This leaves Venice mostly unscathed by war while rest of northern Italy in shambles.
 

Paradoxer

Banned
That is (probably) because it was a "lost century", and - at least in my opinion - there were three reasons for this slumber.
Two of the reasons are "hard": Savoy was unable to gain Lombardy (the consolation prize of Sardinia was not worth much), and Venice was unable/unwilling to build on the (limited) gains of the 1st war of Morea to reform and enter again the diplomatic game.
The third one is "soft": by the late 17th century, Italy had lost the cultural dominance in Europe to France.

A book on Venice in the 18th century has been published this year, but I have not yet read it (busy with a different project).
Italy is still hot bed of Revolutionary activities or ideological and economic influences dating back to renaissance. Their governments were just all incompetent or either foreign lead fools or reactionaries or stubborn aristocratic monarchs and conservatives after Napoleonic wars.

Italy has very long history of republicanism dating back to Rome and renaissance. Napoleon was from Corsica.

Italy was taken over by reactionaries like pope and monarchs against ideas of revolution completely or even railroads at times. Their backers usually very conservative ancien regime of Austria.

The Bank of America and much of modern banking innovations tie to Italy or Italians. Venice probably more for modernization of banking then Austrians.

A bunch of Italians around this time and from these regions often became big capitalist and wealthy here within US or elsewhere along with make multiple innovations.

Venice oligarchs just have to be less dumb and reactionary then pope or risorgimento regimes before unification even Piedmont at times was staunch conservatives. It’s honestly not that hard to do that

If Venice oligarchs and elites just promote construction of railroads, factories, and urbanization from get go they are already ahead of many of its neighbors
 
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I agree that Venice is an unlikely candidate to lead Italian unification (as cool as that might be), but what about Venice remaining independent despite Italian unification?

One possibility I could see is Venice investing more in Dalmatia and whatever parts of Greece it still holds, and establishing a distinct Venetian identity that stretches beyond the city. The end result is a Venice that no longer sees itself as Italian. We could even see the Venetian dialect drifting away from other Italian dialects, picking up loanwords from Dalmatian and Greek.

As for reforming the Venetian political system, how about this: some admiral pulls a coup and purges the old guard. He either sets himself up as a dictator or a king, then is assassinated or overthrown by the lower-tier merchants and guildmasters. They restore the old system, but with more openness - in particular, the government isn't drawn solely from the city of Venice itself.
 
Venetian is already quite different from standard Tuscan Italian, being indeed separate from both northern Gallo-Romance Languages like Lombard and the Tuscan and Mezzogiorno "dialects" to the south.
 
If Venice oligarchs and elites just promote construction of railroads, factories, and urbanization from get go they are already ahead of many of its neighbors
Since the premise was to have a resurgence of Venice in the 18th century, I'd say that railways might be somehow premature.
There was a significant improvement in economic conditions even IOTL during this century, and even some proto-industrialization: a better performance in the wars against the Ottomans might reinforce this trend.
 
Here's an idea. Instead of trying to maintain its Balkan empire, it turns towards North Africa instead?

Could Venice take Libya, especially after Egypt betrays the Ottomans?
 

Paradoxer

Banned
Here's an idea. Instead of trying to maintain its Balkan empire, it turns towards North Africa instead?

Could Venice take Libya, especially after Egypt betrays the Ottomans?
Why not both. They could take Tunis possibly. Libya puts them in conflict with Ottomans which likely means action in Greece and Balkans as well.

Also outside of the Adriatic coastline and Greece they likely don’t spread directly but support independence of Balkan nations or some. Not Serbs as much due to claims on Adriatic but Romanians(biggest one) and maybe Bulgaria(give them Serbia and those lands. Any country given independence would be dependent on Venice to give them sea access and trade somewhat.

They have to be careful with eyeing Egypt those. That might turn British against them if not wise or diplomatic with it at times.

If Venice is seen too much as threat to British navy and trade dominance they will back Ottomans more which in otl they often did until ww1 due to fear of Russian expansion. The ottomans actually were saved by British diplomacy and indirect aid multiple times.

Although Venice could get support from British to rob Russians of as any gains as possible out of decaying Ottoman Empire
 
Crete, an island, should be easier to defend for Venice than the inland Morea, so there is more chance that Venice could it until Napoleon.

But, one thing that might be able to single-handedly turn around Venetian Republic is somehow gaining Lombardy, probably via trading away Dalmatia. Lombardy is very populous and wealthy. In addition, gaining a region as big as Lombardy/Milan, probably bigger than Venetia itself, on top of Greek Crete as mentioned above, would have likely forced the elite to make major concessions.
Both are difficult, as both require naval and land forces. Navy's of this era are heavily dependent on economic output and will only become more so: the traditional Venetian advantages of the Oak reserves of Dalmatia and mass production, the former paling in contrast to the forestry of the Baltic and India (yes India, where its cheaper to produce ships of the same quality after 5 decades of quick learning and a captured Portuguese ship or two) and the later hampered by the really conservative galleys-great technique means nothing producing older manpower intensive ships. Armies on the other hand are getting larger, more professional, and more expensive (gunpowder imports from India, warhorse imports from Russia, warhorse stables, large standing armies) none of which Venice wants to pay for or compete with. Crete isn't the local nexus of trade anymore, nor a stepping stone to the Spice trade anymore, nor one of the only two sugar producing areas in Europe anymore; just nothing worth it there outside of strategic location which requires power to leverage in the first place.

Here's an idea. Instead of trying to maintain its Balkan empire, it turns towards North Africa instead?

Could Venice take Libya, especially after Egypt betrays the Ottomans?
Sure it can take and hold it, until either Spain, England, Naples, France, Ottomans decides otherwise; even with a power backing it the question then becomes how long until that major changes its mind or trades Venice off? Taking more ground won't change the poor mobilization of resources outside of Venice nor would it make the economies, armies, and population of the surrounding kingdoms relatively smaller. Military expenditures in the economic hinterlands of the Atlantic economies won't solve Venice's economic and political issues; just depletes its resources in taking it and accelerates its problems when the more powerful neighbors push back.

Military opportunities

The best case would be a serious ass-kissing campaign, while taking the time to catch-up. This isn't the fall of Byzantium when colonies were up for grabs at fire-sale price and the major kingdoms lacked navies and taxes, just look around at the military expansion opportunities:

To the North are the poor Swiss and relatively well off Robo-Hungarians; both are militarily adept and the later with an immense quantitively advantage.

To the West is Milan, Savoy and France, both Italian states are peer powers negating easy victory and often backed/invaded by the French Giant that can and has smacked down the Venetians if they felt like it.

To the South is the Papal States-can't touch this without Spanish or French approval and Spanish Naples & Sicily which are less militarily adept but still dwarfs Venice in quantity and is experiencing growing prosperity and inequality in its empire.

To the East is the Ottomans, which unlike Venice was trying to reform and hold on to its territories against the Spanish and Austrians which it did for the most part with the exception of the Russians kicking their teeth in up north; even being forced on a defensive posture they are still capable and its a century too early for nationalism to seriously hurt them. Even if they took land what do they gain? The Balkans are full of mountain bandit and ethnic strife being the frontier of 3 faiths, Kosovo has great mineral wealth but why would the Ottomans give it up and without railroads its hard to exploit the inland mines, the North African coast was only an outlet for the desert caravans (who have their choice of entrepôts) whose main value has been bypassed by Atlantic trade, Egypt is its own can of worms with the Mamluks and Berber extortionists and with the rounding of the Cape two centuries ago less a monopoly (not counting the ancient Persian Gulf to Trebizond alternative).

None of these lands are easy and those that are plausible are poor, painting the map doesn't make Venice a stronger regional player; just leaves it stretched out and depleted.

As for population 18th century Venetian Republic was on the lighter side at 2 million (similar to Portugal or Netherlands), though effective mobilization is lower than that of say the Lower countries due to wealth inequality and dispersed and decentralized nature of territories. Problem is as it always is with the Venetian Republic is the lack of natural resources and defensible borders (outside the city), the best things going for it are good agricultural land, relatively okay position (at least during the 18th century) with the possibility of being in play between the Germans, French, and Spaniards.

The first thing is simple, Venice is no longer the economic nexus and its laws should reflect that if not for the self-interest and vanity of the Patricians; Verona on the other hand was a natural epicenter amidst Terrafirma and the sea making it a natural center of trade and light manufacturing. Second, they've gotta open up political and social power/advancement. If it takes several generations, lots of bribes, and Patrician sponsorship to get into the upper strata then some cleaver and ambitious colonials will be turned off or as we see simply settle for regional prominence. Similarly while the Patrician unity, handouts, and such are great in the short run they have to balance it with some pruning. Part of the reason the city became the gambling and whoring capital of Europe is because there were so many uninterested, subsidized, but not rich enough to get wed (weddings had turned into a giant dick-waving contest with massive dowries and pageantry by now) Patricians drinking, gambling's, and whoring; which by itself was a pleasant side effect but should be capitalized upon like a proper tourism industry instead like a dealer and not the druggie who deals and uses. more to come later.
 
the traditional Venetian advantages of the Oak reserves of Dalmatia and mass production, the former paling in contrast to the forestry of the Baltic and India (yes India, where its cheaper to produce ships of the same quality after 5 decades of quick learning and a captured Portuguese ship or two) and the later hampered by the really conservative galleys-great technique means nothing producing older manpower intensive ships.
Choosing galleons instead of galleases/galleys could have been a good Venetian POD in 17th century - that could have improve their military performance in the that century.

I do agree that 18th century is rather too late, but we can have a POD of something similar to the Dutch Patriot movement emerges.

To the West is Milan, Savoy and France, both Italian states are peer powers negating easy victory and often backed/invaded by the French Giant that can and has smacked down the Venetians if they felt like it.

To the South is the Papal States-can't touch this without Spanish or French approval and Spanish Naples & Sicily which are less militarily adept but still dwarfs Venice in quantity and is experiencing growing prosperity and inequality in its empire.
War of Spanish Succession (where both France and Spain were on the losing side IOTL) is an opportunity to grab at least Milan if Venice plays its card right - note that they already held parts of Lombardy IOTL. However, a more successful performance in 17th century is needed to bring Venice to an adequate condition to take part in the affair.
 
Choosing galleons instead of galleases/galleys could have been a good Venetian POD in 17th century - that could have improve their military performance in the that century.

I do agree that 18th century is rather too late, but we can have a POD of something similar to the Dutch Patriot movement emerges.


War of Spanish Succession (where both France and Spain were on the losing side IOTL) is an opportunity to grab at least Milan if Venice plays its card right - note that they already held parts of Lombardy IOTL. However, a more successful performance in 17th century is needed to bring Venice to an adequate condition to take part in the affair.
It could help, shrug but it also draws attention from the French and Swiss for good or bad. They need to resolve the political monopoly Venetian Patricians have over the "Republic" and the attempts at economic monopoly.
 
Instead of trying to maintain its Balkan empire, it turns towards North Africa instead?
Admiral Angelo Emo reqested permission to command land operations in north africa, but was denied due lacks of founds. Venetian finances were in poor state in 1700s.
A reform of the oligarchy needs some serius social or political turmoil forcing the Senate opening to representatives of Terraferma.
Something like corsican uprising.
Maybe Venice gets involved in succession wars, hingh taxes and invasion by stranger armies cause riots among peasants and nobles of mainland towns.
A sort of Cambrai, but this time the Republic is weaker and needs to deal with rebels. Maybe austrian emperors try to interfere...
 
It could help, shrug but it also draws attention from the French and Swiss for good or bad. They need to resolve the political monopoly Venetian Patricians have over the "Republic" and the attempts at economic monopoly.
The Swiss by that time was already neutral. The French, well, could be deterred via allying with its rivals, most likely Britain.

Maybe Venice gets involved in succession wars, hingh taxes and invasion by stranger armies cause riots among peasants and nobles of mainland towns
The hard part is reform, as it would require bringing the political forces that resulted in the OTL Republic of San Marco to the 18th century. Well, have Venice taking Milan but also facing massive discontent and having some kind of "mutilated victory" at the same time, and then have people Lombardy and mainland Venetia together rising up and overthrowing the Venetian oligarch.
 
According to wikipedia, the Swiss reputation for banking dates from the 18th century (although the French wiki says its from the middle ages already). Was it, in anyway possible for Venice to become the centre here? Perhaps the city state NOT being involved in wars, combined with the fact that the city's on an island(s) and by the 18th century, the state's no longer powerful enough to be attracting attention from either France or Austria?
 
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