PC: United Kingdom supporting anti-Qing rebellion

[Night Gaul]

Let's say that sometime after the First Opium War*, a rebellion against the Qing dynasty that's less... insane than the Taiping Rebellion erupts in China. How likely would the British be to support the rebels?

*Using the OTL name, but an event like this might butterfly the Second Opium War, so it might just be called the Opium War.

 

[Dan1988]

They won't. Even with the dubious circumstances by which the Opium Wars ended, Britain knew much better than to go against its money-maker in the China trade. So no matter how more or less insane an alternate T'aip'ing Rebellion goes, Britain would much rather deal with a surviving Qing dynasty than rebels who might seize the newly-acquired territory of Hong Kong for itself.

 

[History Learner]

Christopher Nuttall once wrote a short TL on a largely British China, which I still find interesting:

The British fought the first and second opium wars on a half-hearted basis. Part of that was moral repulsion on the parts of a minority of British politicians. Part of it was the irresolution of the British commanding officer, Lord Elgin, who thought the whole war immoral. The British basically fought when they finally got tired of Chinese delaying actions and measures that basically painted the British as barbarians. The British found the Chinese sense of superiority infuriating, particularly given the massive gap between the two nations in military firepower, China was back in the medieval age while the British had the most formidable weapons in the world.

Let’s suppose that the British sent another commander instead of Elgin. Someone like Clive or Rhodes, who will see the opportunity presented by the war for British expansion and the courage to defy the government. The Chinese viceroy makes his provocations as in OTL and our commander swings into action. There is no question that the British could have taken Canton with the forces available. The Chinese people hated their viceroy and wanted to return to business as usual. The Chinese army was demoralised, particularly after the first clashes. The British effectively destroy the Chinese forces in the area and occupy Canton. The commander annexes the city and the surrounding regions to Britain.

The Chinese emperor appears to have never been told how bad the defeats were in OTL until the British/French force reached Peking in the second war. The odds are that the Chinese government will continue its arrogant actions, which will convince the British (as was considered in OTL) that the government needs changing.

The British proceed slowly, as they did in India, raising some native forces and using them as scouts. The British also destroy the restrictive land rules that made the lives of the peasants a misery. This makes them more popular and pro-British peasant revolts break out across china. This movement co-opts the semi-Christian tai-ping rebellion that took place after the first war and transforms it into a pro-British movement. Our Commander takes advantage of this to start seizing the other coastal cities, before marching on Peking.

The Chinese will probably have grasped the disaster by now. They’ll try to negocaite, but the British will have run out of patience with Chinese evocatism and will demand a complete surrender. The British will probably follow the Indian precedent and offer to allow the Chinese emperor and his court exile somewhere luxusious in exchange for a peaceful transfer of power. The British formally announce their annexation of China and start running the place, starting with the coastal cities.

Assuming the British follow the Indian precedent again, they’ll probably offer the mandarins of western China limited independence, provided they toe the British line and pay homage to queen Victoria. The areas of china that are directly ruled by the British will probably improve quickly, the British won’t exploit the peasants as ruthlessly as the Manchu’s did and they can introduce new techniques. The Chinese would also have lost the deadening hand of the imperial broughcraticy.

The Japanese would be taken far less seriously if they have nowhere to conquer. The British or Americans might take over there as well, while the French and Germans might put more effort into colonising Africa. Russia and Britain will have a long cold war if they have a longer land border and the British would probably react by introducing weapon factories, training and then deploy a few million Chinese troops to the borders. The Russians would probably annex Manchuria as the rest of China fell.

There are some problems with it, as noted here, however.

 

[Alex1guy]

Christopher Nuttall once wrote a short TL on a largely British China, which I still find interesting:



There are some problems with it, as noted here, however.

Imperial apologia and justifications for the Opium wars aside, would there really be a desire for Britain to colonize China like Africa or India?

If the British decapitated the Qing in a war, I imagine they would just carve concession zones, legation ports etc. alongside France, Russia and Prussia/Germany (while the rest of the nation falls to warlordism and chaos) rather than try rule the entire thing directly. Why rock the boat?

To the OP, I guess British support is going to be predicated on "whats in it for Britain?". The Qing couldn't resist militarily and the Opium trade was getting them what they wanted in terms of Chinese goods.

 

[History Learner]

Imperial apologia and justifications for the Opium wars aside, would there really be a desire for Britain to colonize China like Africa or India?

I have absolutely no idea, as I am not really knowledgeable about the subject. Still, I do find the idea of Queen Victoria getting to be Empress of China kinda fascinating in the abstract.

 

[Alex1guy]

I have absolutely no idea, as I am not really knowledgeable about the subject. Still, I do find the idea of Queen Victoria getting to be Empress of China kinda fascinating in the abstract.

Hmmm maybe you'd need to break the Qing up earlier somehow? Or have the Qing somehow really humiliate the British (maybe somehow defeating them in a major military conflict) to a point that they become determined to "put China in their place"

 

[Dan1988]

I have absolutely no idea, as I am not really knowledgeable about the subject. Still, I do find the idea of Queen Victoria getting to be Empress of China kinda fascinating in the abstract.

I don't think establishing the Ying dynasty would be that easy. It would basically be a hodgepodge of colonies, concession zones, et. al. as Alex mentioned. The interior would just be subject to indirect rule by a weak post-Qing emperor à la the Japanese Emperor under the Tokugawa shogunate, with provincial governors and military commanders operating as warlords, all ultimately in the manner of the princely states. Mongolia and Xinjiang, by contrast, would fall under stronger Russian influence to the point that they could eventually part of a post-Tsarist Russian state. Basically China would be in deep shit.

Or the British could follow the OTL solution of supporting the Qing instead of the rebels, which is more likely. The Empire certainly treated Qing China like shit, but even it knew which side of its bread gets buttered and would see rebellion as disruptive to its China trade.

 

[Tyler96]

Trying to hold down large tracts of China would surely see the British Empire close to being hopelessly overstretched.

As to OP, I think you need to concoct a situation in which the Rebels being in power is more significantly more advantageous to the Brits than maintaining the status quo and continuing to deal with the devil they know. Obviously, that wasn't the Taipings, with their puritanical fanaticism, blasphemous perversion of Christianity, and anti-Opium posturing.

If the Qing continue being stubborn, reneging on treaty provisions, treating the British as inferior barbarians, and there's a rebel group that's moderate, pro-Western, pro-trade etc, then maybe they start getting tempted. Though they'd presumably have to tread a very fine line to support the rebels whilst still trading in Qing territory and for most it probably wouldn't be worth the risk, as long as they're making their money (you could easily get a situation where some of the merchants are clandestinely supporting the rebels whilst British officialdom remains pro-Qing).

If the Qing are continually recalcitrant the Brits would eventually reach a point where helping depose the Qing in favour of a more open new regime becomes a better option than calling in the troops to clobber the Qing again and intimidate them into signing another treaty that'll just get subverted in a few years. I'm not sure exactly when British patience would run out in such a scenario, though.

I've seen it suggested (I cannot seem to find where, so treat this dubiously) that the Xianfeng Emperor (and/or his coterie of advisors led by Sushun) intended to repudiate the terms signed by Prince Gong to close the Second Opium War. This obviously didn't happen with Xianfeng's death and Cixi's subsequent coup but if it had that would have led to further deterioration in Anglo-Chinese relations, and much frustration on the British side. The British would also be somewhat perturbed if such a turn of events saw Gong, a man they've found reasonable and capable of working with, get disgraced or fall from favour.

Averting Cixi's coup and leaving the 8 Regents, led by Sushun, in charge could also by itself lead to frontier Anglo-Chinese relations, and make the installation of an alternate regime more appealing to the Brits.

Tweaking which British officials are present in China so you get someone who is vehemently anti-Qing and willing to consider intriguing with other groups could also be helpful- changed personalities on either side to create more friction and hostility between the Brits and the Chinese would be a necessary prerequisite for this scenario, as would a 'nice' rebel movement, and something making the status quo untenable.

Alternately, if the country absolutely goes to shit (to an even greater extent than IOTL) and the Qing are rendered impotent and absolutely incapable of anything resembling effective government, then maybe supporting a rebel group with the potential to restore order becomes appealing- absolute anarchy isn't great for trade, after all.

I'd also query what exactly we mean by "support"- there's something of a spectrum between arms shipments (which I think were a thing early on to the Taiping?), through "here's some officers to assist", to thousands of British troops marching alongside the rebels. The lower end of the spectrum is more plausible.

You could probably get a situation where the British are ambivalent, and freely trade with and provide arms to both sides (clandestinely or not), and then jump on the winning team when it's clear the Qing are finished.

 

[Kaze]

The problem with a rebellion is that the new administration that would come in. The Qing could be dealt with by diplomacy and the point of bayonet. The new leaders once in power, might not deal with the British. The best option for a would be rebel leader if they were going to allay with the British to topple the Qing - they would have to have the brains to say "hey, England, I am going to sign away the whole of Guandong Province (which includes Hong Kong) to you and the European powers... if you give me the whole of China." Then the British might think about it - but I doubt it.

 

[Seandineen]

Sun might make a deal?