PC - Two Belgiums

[pompejus]

Okay, so I've tried to collate my thoughts on the alternate outcome of the Belgian Revolution.

Here's a rought mock-up of the modern division of OTL Belgium:

Kingdom of Belgium:

Dutch-speaking majority (with French-speaking minority)
Capital in Laeken and largest city in Brussels
Constitutional monarchy under King Leopold V (House of Laeken - branch of the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha)​

Kingdom of Wallonia:

French-speaking majority (with Walloon-speaking minority)
Capital in Namur and largest city is Charleroi
Constitutional monarchy under King Ferdinand II (House of Orléans-Nemours - branch of the House of Orléans)​

Grand Duchy of Luxembourg:

Retains the municipality of Arlon​

Eupen-Malmedy

Either an independent buffer state or part of Prussia/Germany​

During the Belgian Revolution, the candidature of Prince Louis, Duke of Nemours is accepted by King Louis-Philippe I of France, and his son becomes "King-elect of Belgium" in February 1831. The Dutch-speaking west of the country erupts into open revolt against the central Belgian government, refusing to accept a monarch aligned t France, and angered by the actions of the French-speaking elite. The Dutch themselves see an opportunity to reclaim the Southern Netherlands, and launch an invasion into North Brabant in support of the Dutch-speaking rebels, whilst the Belgians are supported by a French force that enters southern Belgium without informing the other great powers. The Dutch and French end up in a stalemate outside Brussels.

Britain convenes another conference in London between the Great Powers in early 1832. Neither France nor the Netherlands is willing to back down, while Prussia opposes a unified Belgium under a French monarchy. Britain is reluctant to intervene militarily on the continent, while Russia is distracted by the Polish Uprising. Austria proposes a compromise that partitions Belgium into two independent states - Belgium in the west, and Wallonia in the east. Luxembourg is partitioned, with much of its territory going to the new Walloon state, whilst the status of Neutral Moresnet and Eupen-Malmedy are confirmed. Belgium is granted to Prince Leopold of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, Wallonia is granted to the uncrowned Prince Louis, Duke of Nemours. Both states have their independence guaranteed by the Great Powers, but have neutrality enforced upon them - despite Belgium's desire for close relations with Britain, and Wallonia's with France.

Thoughts?

My thinking is that Wallonia industrialises as OTL, but Belgium is able to use its sea-access as a natural route for Walloon exports and there the two countries become quite economically dependent on one another. Wallonia gets completely occupied by the Germans in the First World War, along with bits of Belgium. Both countries are occupied during the Second World War, and restored after the war. This also butterflies the Congo Free State I imagine...

This is a realy weird division. Firstof all Eupen-Malmedy was not part of Belgium, but they were "conquered" by Belgium after the first world war. They would remain part of Prussia. Belgium Limburg ending up part Of Wallonia is realy weird. Why are the Dutch speaking parts of Belgian Limburg part of the Walloon/French speaking Belgium? And parts of French speaking Hainaut part of the Dutch speaking part. Also interesting is that Flemish Brabant is slit in half and Brussels ends up in the Dutch speaking part, while Leuven ends up in the French speaking parts. It kind of looks like a randomly drawn line.

 

[LeinadB93]

I see it as likely that at some point the French and Walloon will attempt to merge together, especially should a Franco-Prussian War still take place. Something which, after France was humbled rather drastically in that war, would not alter excessively the balance of power.
A French Wallonia would likely reduce significatively the effectiveness of an alt-Schlieffen plan.

Interesting.... would the Revolutions of 1848 cause the abolishment of the Walloon monarchy? Would the Great Powers accept such a Union?

Indeed... an Alt-Schlieffen plan might have to go through the Netherlands.

This is a realy weird division. Firstof all Eupen-Malmedy was not part of Belgium, but they were "conquered" by Belgium after the first world war. They would remain part of Prussia.

Yes, it’s presence of the map was just a hangover from the basemap and showed a slightly enlarged Eupen-Malmedy region.

Belgium Limburg ending up part Of Wallonia is realy weird. Why are the Dutch speaking parts of Belgian Limburg part of the Walloon/French speaking Belgium?And parts of French speaking Hainaut part of the Dutch speaking part.

Part of my thought process was splitting the country along broadly linguistic but also historical lines. So Wallonia gains (more or less) the entire Prince-Bishopric of Liege, County of Namur, western Luxembourg, plus southeastern Brabant, and eastern Hainault.

I figured partly those divisions are based on claims and languages, but also the situation on the ground - hence the partition of Brabant where the French forces were stationed. Also the borders were imposed upon the countries by the Great Powers.

Also interesting is that Flemish Brabant is slit in half and Brussels ends up in the Dutch speaking part, while Leuven ends up in the French speaking parts.

Actually Leuven is just on the Belgian side of the border, so it’s Dutch-speaking with a French-speaking minority.

It kind of looks like a randomly drawn line.

Don’t a lot of OTL borders. Russian-Kazakh for example...

 

[Wendell]

I think both halves would demand direct sea access, even as that sort of defeats the purpose.

 

[LeinadB93]

I think both halves would demand direct sea access, even as that sort of defeats the purpose.

True. Would a legal guarantee of Walloon access to Belgian and/or French ports alleviate that?

 

[Wendell]

True. Would a legal guarantee of Walloon access to Belgian and/or French ports alleviate that?

Probably not. At that point, something like the Talleyrand Plan starts to make more sense.

 

[LeinadB93]

Probably not. At that point, something like the Talleyrand Plan starts to make more sense.

Maybe, but the Talleyrand Plan (and all the variations there of) were largely rejected because Britain didn't want a protectorate on the continent.

Would either half be in any position to demand anything if the Great Powers enforced such a division upon them?

 

[Wendell]

Maybe, but the Talleyrand Plan (and all the variations there of) were largely rejected because Britain didn't want a protectorate on the continent.

Would either half be in any position to demand anything if the Great Powers enforced such a division upon them?

Perhaps not, but state viability would be important.

 

[Wendell]

Might I suggest this alternative?

 

[LeinadB93]

Perhaps not, but state viability would be important.

Would a landlocked Wallonia (with guaranteed access to Belgian/French ports) really be unviable...

Might I suggest this alternative?

Hmm, I don't think the Flemish would go for losing that chunk of Flanders to a Walloon state. They'd probably want all of Brabant and a chunk of Liege in recompense...

 

[Wendell]

Would a landlocked Wallonia (with guaranteed access to Belgian/French ports) really be unviable...

One has to remember the revanchist impulses of the time.

Hmm, I don't think the Flemish would go for losing that chunk of Flanders to a Walloon state. They'd probably want all of Brabant and a chunk of Liege in recompense...

Potentially.

 

[LeinadB93]

One has to remember the revanchist impulses of the time.

True. I know Rattachism was a factor during the OTL Belgian Revolution, with the Regent and there were some quite prominent supporters of union with France.

But there is no way the Great Powers would accept French annexation of Wallonia, and any attempt to do so would likely spark off a major European war. So Britain would probably do all it could to avoid it. Any potential dragging out of the French-Dutch engagement in Belgium would be avoided, and the division of the Southern Netherlands would likely be imposed by Britain upon the various parties to avoid conflict - especially if Prussia got anxious about a potential French annexation of Wallonia.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Wallonia seems ripe to be taken by France. Flanders may rejoin the Netherlands if it is threatened to be absorbed by France. The British did not support the Belgians just to see the French to take back all of it.

 

[LeinadB93]

Wallonia seems ripe to be taken by France. Flanders may rejoin the Netherlands if it is threatened to be absorbed by France. The British did not support the Belgians just to see the French to take back all of it.

That's exactly my point. Admittedly irredentism will likely be a prominent factor in Walloon politics throughout the 19th century, but there is no way the Great Powers would accept a French annexation of Wallonia - and if it happened it would likely lead to a war. The effect of the 1848 Revolutions would also be interesting, does the Walloon monarchy survive (it was only 17 years old and King Louis would only be 34) or fall like the July Monarchy? If an ALT Franco-Prussian War breaks out, Wallonia would be treaty bound to remain independent, but would it? Also during the First World War, Germany would likely only push through Wallonia, not into TTL Belgium.

 

[funnyhat]

True. I know Rattachism was a factor during the OTL Belgian Revolution, with the Regent and there were some quite prominent supporters of union with France.

But there is no way the Great Powers would accept French annexation of Wallonia, and any attempt to do so would likely spark off a major European war.

I'm not sure if this is true. The main reason Britain supported neutral Belgium so much was because they (as always) were concerned about France controlling Antwerp and the coast. Wallonia was not the issue. The reason the British rejected the Talleyrand plan was not because France would rule most of Wallonia, but because the British didn't want to rule Flanders.

Prussia might object to French control of Wallonia but I don't know if that is certain. For Austria and Russia it is not an issue.

 

[LeinadB93]

I'm not sure if this is true. The main reason Britain supported neutral Belgium so much was because they (as always) were concerned about France controlling Antwerp and the coast. Wallonia was not the issue. The reason the British rejected the Talleyrand plan was not because France would rule most of Wallonia, but because the British didn't want to rule Flanders.

Prussia might object to French control of Wallonia but I don't know if that is certain. For Austria and Russia it is not an issue.

I think Prussia (and by extension the German Confederation) would definitely oppose French control of Wallonia, as it actively sought to secure the Fortress of Luxembourg after the Napoleonic Wars. French Wallonia would encircle the strategic fortress. I think something similar to the OTL Luxembourg Crisis might ensue if France acquired Wallonia. It would likely escalate to war between France and Prussia.

Besides part of the reason Louis-Philippe I of France did not accept the throne for his son IOTL was that the Great Powers were wary of French expansionism after the Napoleonic Wars. So it would be 100x worse if they outright annexed Wallonia.

Britain convenes another conference in London between the Great Powers in early 1832. Neither France nor the Netherlands is willing to back down, while Prussia opposes a unified Belgium under a French monarchy. Britain is reluctant to intervene militarily on the continent, while Russia is distracted by the Polish Uprising. Austria proposes a compromise that partitions Belgium into two independent states - Belgium in the west, and Wallonia in the east. Luxembourg is partitioned, with much of its territory going to the new Walloon state, whilst the status of Neutral Moresnet and Eupen-Malmedy are confirmed. Belgium is granted to Prince Leopold of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, Wallonia is granted to the uncrowned Prince Louis, Duke of Nemours. Both states have their independence guaranteed by the Great Powers, but have neutrality enforced upon them - despite Belgium's desire for close relations with Britain, and Wallonia's with France.