PC: Turkey loses its War of Independence, Treaty of Sevres upheld

Let's say Mustafa Kemal doesn't come to lead the Turkish National Movement one way or another, or the Entente and its catspaws get a big break. How plausible is it that the Treaty of Sevres is upheld, the Megali Idea is realized, and the Ottoman state is utterly decimated?
 
Kemal is killed during the war, and the Greeks don't go nuts and over-extend so that they have a more reasonable and defensible chunk of Anatolia. Because of the crisis, the Entente powers (minus Russia) declare Constantinople an international zone, Greece having the western border of the zone, the Turks the eastern one and for 10 km each side the area is demilitarized. Greece gets all the Aegean Islands that would be Turkish OTL (Italy still has its few).

You have a rump Turkey, you may see a Kurdistan across parts of OTL Turkey, Syria, and Iraq perhaps with a small chunk connecting to the Med. An independent Armenia with some expansion in to adjacent Turkey might happen, but the entente won't let a Soviet Armenia do that.

That's the geography. The demography will be ugly. Any Turks in now Greek territory will probably leave (vertically or horizontally), and likewise Greeks or other Christians in the Turkish zone. A Kurdistan will probably be relatively tolerant of minorities like Yazidi, Christians (of all sorts) and Jews. The process of sorting out the ethnic lines will be quite as ugly as anything that went on OTL. Constantinople will reamin multi ethnic in the international zone, you might see the Hagia Sophia back as a church not a mosque.
 
Except for relatively limited Russian forces in the Black Sea, there was no opposition to Germans using for supplies. German or Italian merchant ships could quite legally transit the Bosphorus and go in to the Black Sea. For the Germans this was the long way around and pointless, for the Italians, they would have to evade the RN from Italy to Turkey and good luck on that - enough trouble getting to Libya. IMHO Greek Anatolia would be the spot for the government in exile - one possibility is the rump Turkish state joins the Axis when the Germans look like winners and are offered all of Anatolia back...this could be quite ugly.
 
I imagine like all international zones, they would either do two things.

1. Constantinople could become an international city, and maybe host the League of Nations/UN

2. Constantinople be handed to the Greek government.

So it would look like this:
Eastern Med.PNG
 
I imagine like all international zones, they would either do two things.

1. Constantinople could become an international city, and maybe host the League of Nations/UN

2. Constantinople be handed to the Greek government.

So it would look like this:
This map shows the far side from Constantinople being Greek, which I do not believe I have ever found even a suggestion of something like this. If the Treaty of Sevres was upheld the Greeks would have got a chunk of Thrace, plus some land around Izmir. There would be no upholding and expanding of the Megali Idea. Besides, this would be going into the Italian zone. Which I believe would be a zone of influence like in Siam or China, even if the Italians wanted a colony of Adalyia. Actually it reminds me, in a roundabout way, about British plans to offer Armenia and the Straits to the U.S. as mandates, with the expectation of them moving in to deal with Anatolia afterwards to make administration easier. But yah, the Greeks try to take all this land and the Turks slaughter them or the Entente or an ASB comes in to enforce the Treaty of Sevres.
 
This map shows the far side from Constantinople being Greek, which I do not believe I have ever found even a suggestion of something like this. If the Treaty of Sevres was upheld the Greeks would have got a chunk of Thrace, plus some land around Izmir. There would be no upholding and expanding of the Megali Idea. Besides, this would be going into the Italian zone. Which I believe would be a zone of influence like in Siam or China, even if the Italians wanted a colony of Adalyia. Actually it reminds me, in a roundabout way, about British plans to offer Armenia and the Straits to the U.S. as mandates, with the expectation of them moving in to deal with Anatolia afterwards to make administration easier. But yah, the Greeks try to take all this land and the Turks slaughter them or the Entente or an ASB comes in to enforce the Treaty of Sevres.

I'll edit the map if you want. Sorry.

Eastern Med 2.png


There we go.
 
I'll edit the map if you want. Sorry.

There we go.
No need to apologize. The issue is more about whether we go by how much we go by the Treaty of Sevres and by how much each army occupied. This is an interesting map, though I can't be sure it it is more or less specific than any other. Others show a lot of the area being under the Italian sphere. If Sevees was upheld there would still be some wrangling between the Greeks and Italians where there were overlapping interests. Not just in Anatolia but in the Dodences and Albania.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Treaty_sevres_otoman_de.svg
Treaty_sevres_otoman_de.svg


EDIT: This may be a little better.
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TratadoDeSevres1920.svg
 
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No need to apologize. The issue is more about whether we go by how much we go by the Treaty of Sevres and by how much each army occupied. This is an interesting map, though I can't be sure it it is more or less specific than any other. Others show a lot of the area being under the Italian sphere. If Sevees was upheld there would still be some wrangling between the Greeks and Italians where there were overlapping interests. Not just in Anatolia but in the Dodences and Albania.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Treaty_sevres_otoman_de.svg

Personally I see the regions under International control be reverted to Greece. Britain is not going to be able to control them, it's too tired after the war. Plus, Greece could easily do some sneaky moving of populations into the region, then a census is done by the League, Greeks have majority, and boom its given to Greece.
 
Personally I see the regions under International control be reverted to Greece. Britain is not going to be able to control them, it's too tired after the war. Plus, Greece could easily do some sneaky moving of populations into the region, then a census is done by the League, Greeks have majority, and boom its given to Greece.
If anything, you are going to see more Turks in the International Zone. Apparently 400,000 Muslims were shipped out of Greece IOTL. If the Greeks take Thrace then you have Pomaks, Turks, and others being driven out in greater numbers. I can see them setting up shop in the Straits. And come to think of it, we need to think of what the Georgians and Armenians are doing. Are they supported by the British, Soviets, Imperial Russians, Americans, or by themselves?
 
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Kemal is killed during the war, and the Greeks don't go nuts and over-extend so that they have a more reasonable and defensible chunk of Anatolia. Because of the crisis, the Entente powers (minus Russia) declare Constantinople an international zone, Greece having the western border of the zone, the Turks the eastern one and for 10 km each side the area is demilitarized. Greece gets all the Aegean Islands that would be Turkish OTL (Italy still has its few).

did not realize or remember but Italy had agreed to return Dodecanese to Greece but got lost in shuffle after Greece lost (and maybe international community would not want to hand a weakened Greece the islands if they had no ability to hold them?)

my view that Greece would be better off just holding Eastern Thrace/European Turkey and Dodecanese but that's with hindsight.
 
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