PC: The Philippines as a US State/States

Zachariah

Banned
Could it have ever happened? Could the Philippines have ever been afforded full statehood, either as a whole or in part (divided into two or more states/territories), and become an integral part of the USA on a permanent basis? And what would have needed to change from OTL for this outcome to be brought about?
 

SsgtC

Banned
Could it have ever happened? Could the Philippines have ever been afforded full statehood, either as a whole or in part (divided into two or more states/territories), and become an integral part of the USA on a permanent basis? And what would have needed to change from OTL for this outcome to be brought about?

You need a pre 1900 POD. In particular you need to butterfly of the Philippine-American war.
 
Having a predominantly non-white (and Catholic--with a large Muslim minority) state control so many House seats and electoral college votes would be very difficult for early twentieth century US politicians to accept. Remember that even Hawaii, which would never have more than two House seats and four electoral votes, couldn't get admitted until 1959--largely for racial reasons, whatever other justifications opponents gave.
 
You'd need to butterfly American racism, which means youd have to butterfly most of what led the US on its colony seizing spree in the first place
 
I can only see this happening in a world where America somehow avoids getting involved in WWII, with Japan able to tenuously hold onto its empire and "Co-Prosperity Sphere" for at least a few decades. Fearing that an independent Philippines would become an easy target for Japan, independence keeps on getting kicked down the road - during which time, the economic, social, and political bonds between the US and the Philippines only increase. Even then, it's a tall order.
 
If the Philippines got statehood in 1960, they'd have over 20 million people, 27 million if we assume OTL fertility rates. It would be at least a few million more than the next most populous state.

You'd also definitely be having a larger House of Representatives too. The Philippines would have over 50 representatives and easily be the most populous state, even if many people (far more than OTL) leave to go to California or elsewhere. This would increase to possibility up to 80 congressional districts which are all Filipino. Dividing the Philippines into separate states of course adds to their power in Congress by giving them more senators.

In the end, if the Philippines are a state, then you'd basically need to rename the nation the "United States of America and the Philippines". USAP. Depending on the fertility rate, you'd have the Americans anywhere from 1/4 to 1/6 Filipino, the majority of them living in the Philippines and natively speaking non-English languages. And it goes without saying the islands will be a money sink since the Filipino congressional delegation will naturally vote as much money as they can to the island which is needed to improve the living conditions which at the time of statehood are abysmal compared to the rest of the country. That won't go over well with voters in the rest of the USA(P).

Personally, I think you'd need some sort of special status for the Philippines that would somehow satisfy their need to be an independent nation yet also satisfy the goal of tying them to the United States in some legal manner and not just through economic factors.
 
Remember that prejudice was so strong that the Philippines were explicitly ruled 'not American' for the purposes of the US Constitution applying. Unlike, for instance, Puerto Rico. And note that Puerto Rico STILL isn't a state (OK, that's largely due to their own choice, but you think the current Congress would admit them?)
 

SsgtC

Banned
Remember that prejudice was so strong that the Philippines were explicitly ruled 'not American' for the purposes of the US Constitution applying. Unlike, for instance, Puerto Rico. And note that Puerto Rico STILL isn't a state (OK, that's largely due to their own choice, but you think the current Congress would admit them?)

No, the current Congress would likely not admit them. But not because of racial issues. They wouldn't be admitted because of they're massive debt and economic mismanagement. Even though some of that mismanagement was because of Congress.
 
Remember that prejudice was so strong that the Philippines were explicitly ruled 'not American' for the purposes of the US Constitution applying. Unlike, for instance, Puerto Rico. And note that Puerto Rico STILL isn't a state (OK, that's largely due to their own choice, but you think the current Congress would admit them?)

The current Congress won't admit them. Not directly because of racism, but because they would be 2 Senators and ~6 Representatives that would all be solidly Democratic. As long as the Republicans can block it, they will. Same with DC.

Not that there's anything undemocratic about denying people franchise because you think they'll vote the wrong way.
 
While the American Phillippines is likely to be poorer than the mainland United States, it is likely to be substantially richer than OTL. Into the 1960s, the Philippines was one of the richest countries of East Asia, behind Japan and Taiwan but ahead of South Korea and Malaysia. As noted last year at Rappler, it was only the kleptocracy of the Marcos era that knocked the Philippines back behind its larger neighbours.

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Assuming a best-case growth trajectory, the Philippines might be very well-placed. It could conceivably be a First World country right now, or at least very close to becoming said.

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American statehood might well make this possible. I can see downsides, sure, but I can also see upsides: a relatively stable and positive rule of law will do wonders for economic growth, while access to the labour markets of the mainland United States will work wonders for living standards.
 
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