PC: Staps Kills Napoleon 1809 = Bonapartist "Victory"?

[John Fredrick Parker]

Revisiting an older idea; if the Emperor is killed October of 1809: does Joseph succeed his brother as Emperor of France? If so, how does that affect the Spanish question? Is there a chance for Austria to get better terms in the peace deal from the military defeat they've just suffered? And can the Franco-Russian alliance be preserved for longer? [And if so, will Alexander get his partitioning of the Ottoman Empire?] And given the answers to all these, is there now an endgame for the war with Britain? And given all of the above, how does the greater conflict in Europe play out, and/or what does the resultant balance of power look like?

 

[JonasResende]

Possibly crazy thought / small detail -- Emperor Joseph marrying one of his daughters to Tsarevich Nicholas.

IDK about the possibility of that, considering GD Konstantin was the only pro-French member of the Imperial Family at that point. Plus, Nikolai and Alexandra "Mouffy" were really fond of each other OTL (in love even, maybe).

Also, Napoléon's marriage plans for both might still be in play: Zénaide to an Austrian archduke (perhaps HRE Ferdinand, although I think it was his Tuscan cousin, Leopoldo II) and Charlotte to the Prince of the Asturias. Considering Joseph has no need for an heir same as Napoléon, and the POD is in October 1809 (meaning marriage negotiations between he and Austria were already probably underway), a swap out that instead of Maria Ludovica marrying the French Emperor, the new emperor's daughter marries the Austrian emperor's heir. IDK where Maria Ludovica ends up though...

Although, Joseph's own marital issues could be problematic. He and Julie were living separately by this point (IIRC she never actually set foot in Spain), and his bastard son by Ms Colonna is 2yo.

Also, that elegant elephant in the room, Empress Josèphine: Napoléon's will (IIRC) stated that if he lacked an heir of his own, the Imperial crown was to descend to the son of Louis and Hortense. And were he to be underage, Josèphine was to be régent for her grandson. Joseph is the DE JURE leader of the anti-Beauharnais faction (although Madame Mère and Caroline Murat were its de facto leaders) in the family. So there's going to be a cleft - Josephists who support the succession of the Grand Elector vs the Ludovicians who support Josèphine and the young Grand Duke of Berg.

And then we have the ambitious Caroline. She wanted Murat to be Napoléon's successor. And she voiced an opinion at one point, that if "we give the empress [Josèphine] enough money she'll leave us be". Caroline and Hortense hated each other from school days at Mme Campan's, so she'll PROBABLY be in Joseph's party BUT she and Murat generally worked ALL the angles, so she might decide that Josèphine would allow Caroline/Murat far more leeway (what with Eugène sitting in Italy) than her brother.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@JonasResende Didn't the 1804 Law of Succession make Joseph Napoleon's heir (in the case the Emperor had no offspring)? I was unaware Napoleon had written a will that tried to contradict an actual French law, though I suppose it wouldn't be out of character for him. (I also don't see how the Queen of Naples thinks she's going to get the lines of Joseph and Louis to be skipped, not to mention the Duchesses of Tuscany and Guastalla.)

CONSOLIDATE: Thinking in it actually, I'll admit that if Joseph could be bullied or bribed into passing on the French throne -- which does strike me as plausible, esp if he doesn't really want it -- then having the throne pass to Louis' son, while Louis himself focuses on being King of Holland and Josephine rules as regent, sounds like a pretty likely solution.

 

[JonasResende]

@JonasResende Didn't the 1804 Law of Succession make Joseph Napoleon's heir (in the case the Emperor had no offspring)? I was unaware Napoleon had written a will that tried to contradict an actual French law, though I suppose it wouldn't be out of character for him. (I also don't see how the Queen of Naples thinks she's going to get the lines of Joseph and Louis to be skipped, not to mention the Duchesses of Tuscany and Guastalla.)

Caroline's argument OTL, was that Joseph/Josèphine might command the loyalty of thecitizenry but Murat could rally the army. Basically she was willing to pull a repeat Brumaire if Napoléon died.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Caroline's argument OTL, was that Joseph/Josèphine might command the loyalty of thecitizenry but Murat could rally the army. Basically she was willing to pull a repeat Brumaire if Napoléon died.

Oh the General Murat; I thought you meant her son.

 

[JonasResende]

Oh the General Murat; I thought you meant her son.

No, as Napoléon said, and as he DID OTL, "Achille? He'll make a fine soldier. Nothing more", when Caroline tried to protest at why Napoléon wanted the little Prince Royal of Holland as his heir rather than HER son. Napoléon then warned the Prince Royal NEVER to accept ANY food that his cousins might offer him.

 

[JonasResende]

And Josèphine wasn't just popular with the army (I think they called her Nôtre Dame de Rue Victoire before she became empress), most foreign royals fell under her charm - Alexander of Russia, Prince August of Prussia, Leopold of Coburg. So I could see more than one preferring the Creole whore (as the French royalists referred to her) to the Corsican ogre. Or his Sardanapalus brother or dandy king brother-in-law.

 

[Wendell]

What about Jerome succeeding, repudiating his second wife, and sending for Betsy Patterson?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

What about Jerome succeeding, repudiating his second wife, and sending for Betsy Patterson?

I believe he already been been cut out of the line of succession as punishment for marrying Betsy in the first place; even if the Emperor did put him back in, as "reward" for setting her aside to marry the Princess of Württemberg, he'd still be behind Joseph, Louis, and Louis' sons. So, at best, I'd say it's just another hurdle to Caroline's ambitions for her son; I'd still say a Josephine regency for the princes of Holland looks most likely, followed by Joseph, the guy who's still technically the heir (I think).

CONSOLIDATE: I have to say the image of Josephine, Empress of France and head of a Bonapartist *Concert of Europe* is an intriguing one. Speaking of which, do the Hapsburgs still get a Bonapart match? And if so, does Talleyrand have a better chance of getting an Austrian alliance?

There's also the interesting question of how an averted French Invasion changes things in Russia, especially if replaced with an earlier Anglo-French Peace and end to the Continental System; OTL, these strains were the undoing of Alexander's liberal minister, Mikhail Speransky, and could be said to have set back liberalization and modernization in Russia by decades, so TTL could have some really intersting potential in that respect.

And actually, on the subject of Russia, what does this mean for the Ottoman Empire? Because the imminent threat of Napoleon's invasion was pretty much the crucial reason that the Russo-Turkish War ended in 1812 the way it did; even if Josephine doesn't send French troops (or coordinate Austrian troops) to help carve up the Porte's realms, the simple fact of Russia having more manuverability for their aggression could mean the annexation of Moldovia and Wallachia, or possibly even further Ottoman losses in Bosnia, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Thoughts?

 

[JonasResende]

I believe he already been been cut out of the line of succession as punishment for marrying Betsy in the first place; even if the Emperor did put him back in, as "reward" for setting her aside to marry the Princess of Württemberg, he'd still be behind Joseph, Louis, and Louis' sons. So, at best, I'd say it's just another hurdle to Caroline's ambitions for her son; I'd still say a Josephine regency for the princes of Holland looks most likely, followed by Joseph, the guy who's still technically the heir (I think).

Nope, according to my bio on the Bonapartes, THE GOLDEN BEES (more an overview of the family relations etc), only Betsy's son was barred from the succession (similar to how Lucien's kids from his second marriage were), Jérôme himself stayed in the French succession. It was part of the reason for his inclusion in the famille impériale under the Second Empire, rather than the famille civile (like Lucien's descendants, the Murats, Countess Camerata and other female-line Bonaparte relatives or those male-line ones (Léon, Walewski, Bo Patterson, etc) without succession rights.)

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@JonasResende Wait, even Lucien? But I thought he had fallen out so hard with the Emperor that he was in self imposed exile, and disasproved of the imperial title itself to boot. Was he really in the line of succession just behind Joseph?

If so, and I have this right, this would be the line of succession at the time of October 1809: [list edited -- see below]

1. Joseph, (busy as) King of Spain
2. Louis, (busy as) King of Holland
3. Napoleon-Louis, Prince Royal of Holland (would need a regency)
4. Louis Napoleon (OTL Napoleon III) (would need a regency)
5. Jerome, King of Westphalia
6. Achille Murat, son of Caroline (would need a regency)
7. Lucien Murat, son of Caroline (would need a regency)

One more thing to note, in pure succession terms -- if Josephine is made regent, it would still bear remembering that she died OTL age 50 (in 1814), same age as her imperial husband; now it's quite possible that she lives longer TTL, but I also don't think it should be necessarily be assumed she'll live into her 70's or something like that. Having her make it to 1819, "reigning" as long as her husband, or just making it to the age of majority for Louis' son, would be enough.

 

[JonasResende]

@JonasResende Wait, even Lucien? But I thought he had fallen out so hard with the Emperor that he was in self imposed exile, and disasproved of the imperial title itself to boot. Was he really in the line of succession just behind Joseph?

If so, and I have this right, this would be the line of succession at the time of October 1809:

1. Joseph, (busy as) King of Spain
2. Lucien (are you sure?)
3. Louis, (busy as) King of Holland
4. Napoleon-Louis, Prince Royal of Holland (would need a regency)
5. Louis Napoleon (OTL Napoleon III) (would need a regency)
6. Jerome, King of Westphalia
7. Achille Murat, son of Caroline (would need a regency)
8. Lucien Murat, son of Caroline (would need a regency)

EDIT ADD: One more thing to note, in pure succession terms -- if Josephine is made regent, it would still bear remembering that she died OTL age 50 (in 1814), same age as her imperial husband; now it's quite possible that she lives longer TTL, but I also don't think it should be necessarily be assumed she'll live into her 70's or something like that. Having her make it to 1819, "reigning" as long as her husband, or just making it to the age of majority for Louis' son, would be enough.

Lucien WASN'T included in the succession roll originally. He was stricken for thwarting Napoléon (who was trying to arrange a marriage for Luc with the Dowager Queen of Etruria) and marrying "that whore, Mme Jouberthon" (Napoléon's memoirs). However, both his daughters ffrom his first marriage were allowed the style of her imperial highness, Princess Charlotte/Christine (if his son, born in Augsburg in 1796 had lived, this would likely have extended to him as well).

Lucien himself (as well as his kids by Mme Jouberthon) however, was only included in an edict passed on March 22 1815. This caused some iffiness at the Second Empire court (Princesse Mathilde refusing to ride in the same carriage as one of Lucien's daughters/granddaughters, "because she [Mathilde] was a member of the Imperial Family, the Countess was not"), and Lucien's descent was included in the famille impériale rather than the famille civile. Napoléon III seems to have regarded them (the Jouberthon descent) more as morganatic relatives, since they only held the style of "Highness" and were styled Prince(ss) Bonaparte rather than Prince(ss) X of France and Imperial Highness (like Plon-Plon, his kids, and Mathilde).

 

[Mikestone8]

Lucien WASN'T included in the succession roll originally.

Would Napoleon's rules of succession count for anything once he was dead?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Would Napoleon's rules of succession count for anything once he was dead?

That would depend on the loyalty of the army and the political establishment, which FWIG was pretty much unshakeable in 1809, and how the Bonaparte family themselves work with their feeling; yet more reason I'd say that Josephine taking over as regent is so likely is that she was as uber-popular in France as her husband, while I couldn't say how the Marshals and Senate would take to working under Joseph, Louis, or god forbid, Jerome.

 

[Mikestone8]

That would depend on the loyalty of the army and the political establishment, which FWIG was pretty much unshakeable in 1809, and how the Bonaparte family themselves work with their feeling; yet more reason I'd say that Josephine taking over as regent is so likely is that she was as uber-popular in France as her husband, while I couldn't say how the Marshals and Senate would take to working under Joseph, Louis, or god forbid, Jerome.

Exactly.

I don't doubt the army's loyalty to Napoleon, only how much of it would transfer to his nondescript bunch of relatives.

 

[Mikestone8]

And as long as said nondescript relatives get that and formally decline the French throne to focus on their own, which I think they will, the succession shouldn't be too much of an issue.

How long would they get to keep thrones of their own? Their only titles rested on being members of Napoleon's family, which counts for little now that he is dead.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

How long would they get to keep thrones of their own? Their only titles rested on being members of Napoleon's family, which counts for little now that he is dead.

Well, that's another way of saying their titles rested on being French allies/puppets, which a new French government doesn't necessarily change (again, regent Josephine solves this nicely).

CONSOLIDATE: Regarding Spain, the OTL assassination attempt happened roughly around the time that the Anglo-Spanish-Portuguese forces started to suffer a series of setbacks, such that the French (as they did OTL) could easily push back the British out of most of Spain and into Portugal proper; depending on if the Peninsular War continues for another couple of months or years, the French could certainly reclaim "Joseph's" country, and maybe even retake Portugal (but only if they used a significant fraction of what was used for Russia OTL). AAR, I'd say that a final peace with Britain would likely include Joseph getting Spain, Portugal remaining an independent British ally, and the islands and sea power in general basically being given to Britain... and, of course, ending the blockades.

Britain likely wouldn't cotton to having a Bonaparte commanding the Spanish Empire in Latin America; fortunately, they have been supporting independence and autonimist juntas in the Western Hemisphere, plus France still has possession of Ferdinand. So I'm seeing an endgame here where Britain agrees to let Joseph keep the crown of European Spain, while the Spanish Bourbons cross the Atlantic and Latin America's break with Spain comes several years earlier than OTL. Thoughts?

And something else I just thought of -- would the US still see the election of the war hawks in 1810, and subsequent declaration of war against Great Britain? And if Britain isn't distracted by the War of the Sixth Coalition, and possibly even having reached accord with the French over Spain, will the Americans now do significantly worse? And what does that mean subsequently for North America?

 

[Red_Galiray]

@John Fredrick Parker, did you mention me? I thought you did, but I can't find the mention anywhere, so perhaps I'm not remebering correctly.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

did you mention me? I thought you did, but I can't find the mention anywhere, so perhaps I'm not remebering correctly.

I did; I was wondering if you had thoughts on how this scenario would affect Latin America (see last post), seeing as you're doing a TL on the (Latin American Independence) period.

 

[Colonel Troutstrangler]

I suspect that the British and allied interests would view Boneys death as a further spur to attain the aim of returning a Bourbon to the French throne.
They did not view his reign as wholly legitimate (only when they needed or had to) and thus his heir would come under the same "pressure" to stand down and let Louis have his rightful (?) place on the French throne.
Also, Boneys Marshals were a headstrong bunch; several, especially Bernadotte, would seek, at the very least, further influence if not outright control for themselves. (Perhaps through the "legitimacy" of the Regency of Josephine - even marriage to her?)
I can see France becoming very inward looking and the opportunity for the satellite states to look elsewhere for leadership.