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Inspired from this discussion, I wanted to focus on a particular possible outcome, and how the war might proceed from there:
During Barbarossa in late June, when Stalin has a nervous breakdown and retreats to his Dacha, he determines that he's likely to get arrested and decides to eat a bullet rather than deal with Siberia.
Subsequently, the Soviet government either falls into a power struggle for a top position or a dysfunctional power sharing arrangement.
The next weeks or months prove disastrous for the Soviet Union, more so than OTL
maybe Mosow and/or Leningrad falls
maybe the new unstable government decides to sue for peace while they try to get their shit together
or something else really bad
... either way, by the last month of the year, Nazi Germany is victorious in the East, Hitler's territorial goals (seemingly) achieved
The Japanese may or may not still attack Pearl Harbor and pursue their Southern Strategy
possibly not, as Sakharin and other Siberian territory may now appear to be easy pickings
if not, an absence of bad news on the Soviet front might mean that Hitler doesn't declare war on the United States
and even if both of these things still happen...
the Axis powers in Europe, starting 1942, can now reinforce their Mediterranean "underbelly" (Sicily, etc), so even if they're still defeated in North Africa, any further Allied invasions are now that much harder
Meaning, as early as January 1943, the British (and possibly Americans) are running out of options for ways to bring the war to a favorable end
Any attempt at invading Europe earlier is likely to end in disaster, and Italy et el don't offer any easy victories in the interim; the only remaining option, keep the war going on low burn until industries can catch up, may not be viable politically either
If I'm right so far, we could be looking at Britain (possibly with the US) agreeing to a negotiated peace with Nazi Europe