Was it at all possible for Spain to actually win the Spanish American war? If it had been managed properly, could the Spanish have made it just costly enough that the American people would have wanted peace?
PC: Spain 'wins' the Spanish-American war?
- Thread starter Rainbow Sparkle
- Start date
Dirk_Pitt
Banned
Unlikely unless you went back to the core of Spain's problems: Corruption. Spain was almost destined to lose the war. Almost, again it depends on the PoD. Nothing's impossible with the right PoD.
I think so.
We could start with well trained and motivated Spanish crews manning low cost, but lethal torpedo boats in Manila Bay. The U.S. navy then receives a nasty surprise far from home.
Meanwhile the largely ad hoc American forces invading Cuba and Puerto Rico are met by well trained Spanish regulars who have leveraged their small numbers with best machine guns that money could buy in 1898. These weapons are not spread out, but are rather concentrated into units and manned by specially trained "machinesteros"
The charge up San Juan hill turns into a blood bath as the Americans skip into a pre planned Spanish fire sack. Enfilade machine gun fire kills Teddy Roosevelt and most of his men before they know what hit them. The uhmmm "Splendid Little War" is getting ugly fast...
I think Cryptic's post was spot on. The Spaniards could possibly have succeeded if they could have inflicted enough casualties. Here are a few things I think they should have done. Remember, Spain only had to defend its possession.
1. Guns. They already had those excellent Mauser rifles with smokeless powder. As Cryptic said, I think the Spanish should have brought in their new maxim guns, which they never deployed in the way. The rough riders would find things a bit... rough. Also, I don't know what kind of artillery they had but they probably should have had some more.
2. Next, it would have helped if the Spanish warships had not had all that defective ammunition.
3. Deploying more of their larger and newer warships where they were needed. (I heard they had some battleships that were on their way to reinforce the Philippines but that they couldn't get on time there because weren't allowed through the Suez Canal).
4. I don't know how many torpedo boats Spain had if any, but it was probably within Spain's reach and it couldn't have hurt to have them at the ready.
5. This is a big one. The Spanish could have made better use of submarine mines. The ones they had weren't very good and they didn't have enough of them where they wanted them.
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One thing I frequently notice about threads that ever propose the US losing one of its many wars is that someone always tries to get in early to say "No, absolutely not, not a chance" or some variation thereof.
Anyway, wasn't there a timeline once that followed this route? It was lacking in butterflies but as far as I can remember the POD was sound. If only I could remember what that POD was...
Anyway, wasn't there a timeline once that followed this route? It was lacking in butterflies but as far as I can remember the POD was sound. If only I could remember what that POD was...
Cuba is lost without a very early PoD. They weren't really fighting a defensive war, they already had been fighting a war with the independentists.
Philipines on the other hand could have been held to if the military upkeep had been better.
(How come there is no decent movie of this?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Baler)
All in all, the biggest problem was as Dirk said the corruption that had spread in the military. There was no upkeep, and the technological update was lagging behind. If you can solve this with a early during Alphonse XII reign, there would be a chance.
Philipines on the other hand could have been held to if the military upkeep had been better.
(How come there is no decent movie of this?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Baler)
All in all, the biggest problem was as Dirk said the corruption that had spread in the military. There was no upkeep, and the technological update was lagging behind. If you can solve this with a early during Alphonse XII reign, there would be a chance.
Actually, Cuba would have to be saved with a PoD earlier than that of Alfonso XII's reign. If you wanted to save Spanish Cuba, the PoD would have to be in 1868, during Spain's Glorious Revolution, at the absoute latest. Perhaps, if the Liberal Regime managed to survive, integration of Cuba as a province (or at least more competent and less corrupt & abusive management of it) would be possible.
In the case of the "No, absolutely not.." here...without LOTS of changes..absolutely not. Just read the above comments. Jesus...if the Spanish had better this and used this and had better tactics and put these weapons there...and so on. Yeah..if the American carriers had been at Pearl..and the Americans hadn't broken the Japanese codes, if they hadn't killed Yamamoto, if Japan had discovered a large oil field in the Sea of Japan and coal and iron reserves in Korea and invented the A-Bomb first...they may have made it to Topeka.
It hasn't got anything to do with nationalistic pride or ego..simply the historical facts. The US is a big country that doesn't like to lose...unless it is a brush fire war on the other side of the world that can be dragged out for a long time..no end in sight and no massive negative result due to the defeat..the US will win...given realistic parameters. Could Spain have won..yes..but not within any realistic parameters. Could they have done better..sure...that's realistic., they couldn't have done worse.
Flubber
Banned
This basically.
There are a large number of PODs after the declaration of war which would make the war less of a cakewalk for the US too. The US would still win, but the costs would be higher and the results of the peace treaty less generous.
One is having the Spanish government accept Cervera's advice that his squadron base out the Canaries. Another is having Cervera make for Havana rather than Santiago. A US blockade/siege of Havana would most likely have a very different outcome than the nearly farcical victories around Santiago. Just holding on until yellow fever season would help the Spanish garrison tremendously.
Now there's an interesting thought...I wonder what sort of affect that might have had on things. Then again, maybe it just means Spain hands it off to Japan a few years down the line.
Gonna have to look that up now.
Why does Japan always end up with the Philippines? I blame Turtledove.
Well Cuba is the reason the US went to war in the first place. Spain probably knows that, after years of fighting, use of concentration camps and now direct US support for rebels, they are going to have to throw in the towel there. The US might be willing to let Spain retain Puerto Rico, Guam and, if they can hold them, the Philippines. Heck, even in OTL they let the Spanish keep the Marianas and the Marshall islands (which Spain sold the Germany the next year). In this scenario, I think Spain would be glad to get away without losing any more territory while the US would be able to end the war, achieve its goals and claim victory.
I think it's physically impossible to elaborate an ATL with a spanish-american war where the US do not triumph in Cuba.
That would imply that Teddy Roosevelt would not get his chance to prove his heroic awesomeness, and probably the servers where AH is held would spontaneously combust as soon as such TL was submitted.
That would imply that Teddy Roosevelt would not get his chance to prove his heroic awesomeness, and probably the servers where AH is held would spontaneously combust as soon as such TL was submitted.
I think it's physically impossible to elaborate an ATL with a spanish-american war where the US do not triumph in Cuba.
That would imply that Teddy Roosevelt would not get his chance to prove his heroic awesomeness, and probably the servers where AH is held would spontaneously combust as soon as such TL was submitted.
TR is awesome, but he is not that awesome.
*shuts self in nuclear bomb bunker*
Hmm....
After several shocking set backs, frustrated, frightned and angered U.S. troops (and civilian wanna be adventurers) stagger back into town "X". There, they find rum and a few enemy snipers find them.
The result is an explosion. Some U.S. officers can't control their men, others will not. A Catholic church is searched for snipers, then looted as things start to get out of hand. Military units temprarily become mobs - Homes are "searched" looted and burned. Men deemed to be "snipers" are shot, women are raped. A convent is also "searched" (vandalized) by drunken soldiers, some of whom were mocking catholicism.
Not surprisingly, most of the raped women are poor and darker complected (psychologiocaly easier for white U.S. troops to violate them). Almost all of the other carnage is in the poor areas as well since U.S. officers were billeted in weathy part of town leading to the enraged men looking elsewhere for "snipers". Spanish propaganda exaggerates the very real atrocities. The independistas start to have second thoughts about the "liberators".....
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They want Indonesia and the Philippines are in the way. What really makes you think is why would the Japanese attack America after they had those island, forced the French out of Indochina and the Dutch out of Indonesia? I mean, they pretty much have what they want, and a Pacific War just looks like a waste of resources.