How plausible is it to have the Soviet Union send a Military Mission to (a Republican) Ethiopia in the late 20s to early 30s?
I probably should've provided the background behind this - I was thinking of having Ethiopia fall to a Republican coup d'état around the same time Iyasu was overthrown IOTL and have this Republican Ethiopia receive French Somaliland in return for sending men to the frontlines to somewhere like Egypt or German East Africa.How does that happen when Ethiopia is landlocked and all the surrounding countries would REALLY not like Soviet influence in the region.
I probably should've provided the background behind this - I was thinking of having Ethiopia fall to a Republican coup d'état around the same time Iyasu was overthrown IOTL and have this Republican Ethiopia receive French Somaliland in return for sending men to the frontlines to somewhere like Egypt or German East Africa.
I was thinking of having a gradual process for an educated elite such as Tekle Hawariat Tekle Mariam coming to power after becoming disillusioned with the Ethiopian Monarchy which leads to a pro-Republican faction in Ethiopia exploiting the general hatred of Iyasu V amongst the nobility to overthrow him in 1915-16 and establish a Republic in an Ethiopia TL.But why would a coup result in a republic as opposed to just another Emperor taking the throne as per OTL?
The Soviet Union wasn't averse to establishing relationships with monarchies, early on the USSR actually had a surprisingly cordial relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, though this eventually fell apart and resulted in a dramatic reversal of a once-strong relationship. The Soviet Union was one of the few countries to actually meaningfully denounce the Italian invasion when it did happen, though Soviet support of Ethiopia was largely ineffectual but... one wonders precisely what it was capable of doing even had it wanted to.
As to the main topic, while there are obvious limitations to Soviet influence and the Soviet Union's ability to provide more than modest assistance is fairly minimal, I don't see it as impossible. The USSR established diplomatic and economic connections throughout the world, particularly in the 1930's when most Western countries established relations with the Soviet Union. The British and the French might be concerned about Soviet involvement in East Africa, but they didn't take any drastic action against the Soviet presence in Spain, a nation which was far more strategically-important to both Britain and France than Ethiopia is.
So, for my part, I think it's entirely possible and even desirable for the Soviet Union to establish ties to Ethiopia in the 1930's: this was an era of expansion for Soviet diplomacy and Ethiopia would fit naturally into the Soviet model as an African state which had resisted the onslaught of imperialist conquest. A big possibility here might be averting the Italian invasion, because after that, any real chance of a Soviet-Ethiopian relationship effectively froze until after the end of the occupation.
I was thinking of having a gradual process for an educated elite such as Tekle Hawariat Tekle Mariam coming to power after becoming disillusioned with the Ethiopian Monarchy which leads to a pro-Republican faction in Ethiopia exploiting the general hatred of Iyasu V amongst the nobility to overthrow him in 1915-16 and establish a Republic in an Ethiopia TL.
While this bit about the Soviet Union's relations with the Monarchial states of the world is certainly true, I'm not so sure about Soviet support for Ethiopia during the Italian invasion - especially considering the fact that the USSR was providing quite a bit of oil to the Royal Italian Armed Forces in wartime, alongside other countries that officially denounced the invasion such as Great Britain who owned a share in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company that was supplying the Italians with oil as well.
This certainly seems like it has quite a bit of potential!
What might relations be between Moscow and Addis Ababa if there's increased Soviet support to Ethiopia not only in the shape of a Military Mission but modernization as well?
Hmm, that's a good point.The problem is, if the nobility, as OTL, hates Iyasu, why would that extend to also hating the system of government that literally cements their power? When you don't like the king, you don't always get rid of the kingship, you just get another king.
The USSR, like most countries, presumably did not see a reason to get involved, nor did it really have much ability to do so even if it had wanted to.
That said, if for some reason there is no Second Italo-Ethiopian War in the 1930's, it's quite possible to imagine the Soviet Union establishing relations with Ethiopia. IOTL there were attempts to do so but it was a series of false starts: the early USSR tried to do it in the 1920's ,but this was curtailed by strong Anglo-French opposition and the war cut off any chance of doing so in the 30's.
So if we get an Ethiopia that maintains its independence (or perhaps is forced to accept massive concessions in Italy's favour) it's entirely possible that Ethiopia will look to the Soviet Union for modernisation aid. Haile Selassie in particular was a strong proponent of developing Ethiopia and would probably accept aid from nearly any source he could get it. The fact that the Soviet Union is a successor state to an age-old ally of Ethiopia would be of considerable benefit.
The weird thing is, even though the Ethiopian Empire later on in the Cold War became a staunch US ally, early on, international diplomacy wasn't quite so binary and absolute as it became in the Cold War. Nor was the Soviet Union quite so fixated on assuring the ideological conformity of its allies.
Hmm, that's a good point.
True.
Could we potentially see an earlier establishment of relations with an Ethiopia that's willing to take in more Russian refugees during the Russian Civil War?
There's a possibility that we see Ethiopia becoming an Italian client state and then she looks to the USSR after becoming disillusioned with the West for attempting to sell her out.
Haile Selassie was pretty pro-West despite the fact that the Soviets had given him a considerable amount of financial support and if Ethiopia manages to take in more Russians during or after the Russian Civil War, this could be an impetus to forge closer relations with Moscow.
Is there anyway we could see Ethiopia remaining intact without having to grant concessions to the Italians and still receive a Soviet Military Mission?The British government at one point backed a fairly punishing proposal for peace that would have massively favoured Italy and granted substantial territorial concessions to them in return for peace. Honestly, the British government's mindset in the interwar period was effectively to avoid another major conflict under any circumstances. This is why blatant aggression by fascist dictators typically went unanswered and the British government typically refused to support the victims of aggression and in so doing inadvertently aided the perpetrators thereof. So honestly, it's entirely possible to imagine an Italian government leveraging British reluctance and wielding it as a weapon to get a settlement that is lopsided in Italy's favour. At which point Ethiopia would almost certainly seek out other allies.
Is there anyway we could see Ethiopia remaining intact without having to grant concessions to the Italians and still receive a Soviet Military Mission?
For the TL I have in mind, I want there to still be a Fascist Italy but I suppose it'd be more likely to have Ethiopia establish closer relations with the Soviets if she was forced to make territorial concessions such as having a chunk of the Ogaden go to Italian Somaliland.I mean, if you had a completely different Italian government in power, I could imagine there being no Italo-Ethiopian crisis to start with.
A question - if Ethiopia manages to survive the 1930s relatively intact and with Soviet backing, what role might she play in the Second World War?
For the TL I have in mind, I want there to still be a Fascist Italy but I suppose it'd be more likely to have Ethiopia establish closer relations with the Soviets if she was forced to make territorial concessions such as having a chunk of the Ogaden go to Italian Somaliland.
Ethiopia being an active participant in ITTL's East African Campaign might not only mean the more rapid collapse of Italian forces in the Horn of Africa but in North Africa if we see Ethiopian forces taking part in the North Africa Campaign alongside Allied forces.Aside from Ethiopia being an active component of the East African Campaign, I don't think it'd be much more than a regional focus.
As regards the Second World War, I'd imagine that we would get more or less the same result as historically: an Italian collapse against British forces in East Africa and the loss of Italy's colonial territories in East Africa and beyond. I feel like this is one of those changes that would initially seem quiet and unremarkable, but things might change in time.
What if Ethiopia avoided invasion and the loss of territories save perhaps for the historically-rebellious Ogaden region and its modernisation campaigns continued without interruption? What if Ethiopia participated as a major part of the East Africa campaign, with primarily British support but also a considerable amount of Soviet and eventually US military and financial aid? This could seriously change the trajectory of Ethiopia's economic development. And that's just one possibility that assumes the Second World War even happens along the same alliance structure as OTL.
Ethiopia is a country with extraordinary potential, but it seems to me like Ethiopia's 20th-century misfortunes were often just a case of bad timing: it didn't have enough time to implement its plans for modernisations before war was forced upon it. Ethiopia lost over 700,000 people in the war, quite a large amount of whom were educated administrators who could have helped the country. As with all wars, we should not just ask who survived, but also who perished. How many potential great leaders, administrators, and figures of national importance died in the Second Italo-Ethiopian War? How would the economy have performed with roughly 700,000 more people in the workforce or to serve as consumers of domestic products?
That is certainly a problem I was unsure about addressing - perhaps we could have London be willing to allow the Soviets to assist in Ethiopia's modernization as a result of Ethiopia being forced to cede a portion of the Ogaden to Italy?The problem is, the Brits who is the dominant power in that part of the world, would not want to see the Soviets getting a foothold in Ethiopia and the communication from USSR to Ethiopia would be a sea lane which would be dependent goodwill of UK to remain open.
The Ethiopia had extremely obsolete industries, backward economics (roughly 1/9 of Italian capacity in 1935), poor communication infrastructure and severe separatism sentiments. Early Soviet help, loaded with communism advocacy, would actually likely to sow the internal discord and result in Ethiopian civil war. Also, the logistics for soviet help is extremely unfavorable - all naval transport must pass or refuel at British-controlled territories, and only a small amount of assistance can be delivered by aircraft or by purpose-built & leased extended-range sea vessels.Aside from Ethiopia being an active component of the East African Campaign, I don't think it'd be much more than a regional focus.
The Ethiopia had extremely obsolete industries, backward economics (roughly 1/9 of Italian capacity in 1935), poor communication infrastructure and severe separatism sentiments. Early Soviet help, loaded with communism advocacy, would actually likely to sow the internal discord and result in Ethiopian civil war. Also, the logistics for soviet help is extremely unfavorable - all naval transport must pass or refuel at British-controlled territories, and only a small amount of assistance can be delivered by aircraft or by purpose-built & leased extended-range sea vessels.
The side effect may be shortening of Spanish civil war though - because Soviets will have fewer resources and less political will to interfere after Ethiopian fizzle, likely resulting in lopsided Nationalist victory in 1936, and may be active participation of Spain in WWII on Axis side.
That is certainly a problem I was unsure about addressing - perhaps we could have London be willing to allow the Soviets to assist in Ethiopia's modernization as a result of Ethiopia being forced to cede a portion of the Ogaden to Italy?