PC: Soviet-Japanese alliance in summer 1945

[Snowstalker]

It seems obvious that the Soviet Union would never go to war with Japan if a second war broke out between the Allies and the Soviets in the months between the collapse of Germany and the surrender of Japan. But could there be any decree of (formal or informal) cooperation between Moscow and Tokyo?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

It seems obvious that the Soviet Union would never go to war with Japan if a second war broke out between the Allies and the Soviets in the months between the collapse of Germany and the surrender of Japan. But could there be any decree of (formal or informal) cooperation between Moscow and Tokyo?

There was that sort of cooperation between the two in some matters to August 1945. Neutral Soviet cargo ships were carrying material to Japanese ports as late as the summer of 1945. Navigation aids & protocols in the region were maintained by the two. There was a cross border transfer of material between the two from Manchuria/Korea to the Far Eastern provinces. The Japanese were infact hoping for a anti western alliance. While few expected the USSR to go to war right away against the US they did hope for more material, and the presence of the USSR to give Japan some strategic depth. Something like the role the US played for Britain & its allies from 1939 to the end of 1941. In the spring of 1945 some formal proposals for this were sent via the Japanese embassy in Moscow. No reply of any sort was made, which perhaps should have been a warning for the Japanese. But, the Japanese leaders ignored other warnings. Despite poor intelligence they had some information on a reinforcement of the Soviet Far Eastern Armies. & they were aware the character of the cargo shipping between the US & Soviet Pacific ports had changed that summer. Still it was a nasty shock when the USSR delivered its DoW in August.

On the Soviet side they had long running ties with the KMT, favoring it with better assistance than given to Maos little enclave. Either way, the KMT or CCP Stalin & Cohad a long running preference for China over Japan.

 

[BigBlueBox]

The USSR wanted revenge for the Russo-Japanese War, which is why I think the USSR still declares war on Japan even if they are at war against the WAllies. Not to mention, Japan and the USSR disagree ideologically and are a check on each other's ambitions in China and Korea.

What is the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?

Although, a couple years ago someone explored this scenario more. They concluded that if the war between the WAllies and USSR is bad enough, Japan unconditionally surrenders to the WAllies earlier hoping to be shown favor as anti-Communist. Even if the surrender is before the USSR declared war on Japan, the Soviets invade Manchuria, Korea, and South Sakhalin/Karafuto anyway. The WAllies, already at war with the USSR, support the Nationalists/Kuomintang in trying to take back Manchuria from the Soviets and Chinese Communist Party. Meanwhile, the WAllies and possibly re-armed Japanese soldiers combat the USSR in Korea and South Sakhalin/Karafuto (over in the European Theatre, re-armed German troops are used). With no Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ATL will tell of the Atomic Bombings of Moscow, Stalingrad, and Leningrad.

Japan unconditionally surrendering without August Storm or nuclear bombings is such a ridiculously contrived Ameriwank that nobody can take it seriously.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

What is the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?


Japan unconditionally surrendering without August Storm or nuclear bombings is such a ridiculously contrived Ameriwank that nobody can take it seriously.

The evaluations of the the food supply over the winter, by the Japanese government suggest a blockade & siege stately could have worked by the spring or early summer. In late July the official report on the rice harvest was completed. It is consistently described by the English language historians as a shock to the government. This is about the same time the maximum ration, for soldiers and critical workers was reduced below 2000 calories daily. For less important citizens & foreign labor the ration went in increments to near 1000 calories daily. No ration was allocated for the elderly, severely ill, most PoW, criminals, ect... The population had been adding from non rationed food from gardens, vegetable farms, residual private stocks of food through the summer. That those sources would largely cease after the early frost was a given. Annecdotal evidence suggests the private hoards were rapidly giving out. the consumption of draft animals & dogs had been well underway as owners could no longer feed those. Projections differ but all point to a starvation diet for the military and critical workers by late winter. Possiblly under 1500 calories daily, certainly under 2000. There was evidence the government was planning on measures such as killing all PoWs, allowing the elderly and sick to die immediately, placing the Korean laborers on a minimal starvation diet of under 1000 calories. These projections suggest the soldiers and critical labors would have been compromised in their ability to fight or perform key tasks in the spring or early summer of 1946. I have not seen anyone try to project ration size beyond the first half of 1946, but neither seen any reference to any succor other than a summer vegetable crop, and a rice crop the farm labor would be too weak to plant properly. The latter would probably be without the significant assistance of draft animals or machine as the decline in fodder & fuel has no believable relief over the winter & spring.

The bottom line is after nine months from a decision not to surrender the government will be looking at a population in the grip of fatal malnourishment related diseases. a steadily increasing death rate, even the most critical soldiers or workers weak & diseased, and the prospect of true mass famine starting sometime in the second half of 1946. The death toll is going to be several orders of magnitude larger than that of the Soviet campaign in Manchuria, and the August bombing of Japans cities.

 

[BigBlueBox]

How much food can Japan seize from occupied China, Manchukuo, and Korea?

 

[Montgomerie Ward]

What is the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?

A partition of Eastern Europe between Nazi Germany and the USSR. I don't find it very plausible that Japan and the USSR would partition China.

Both the Nazis and the Soviets had plans to break the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, it just so happened the Nazis broke it first. The USSR was also offended that they weren't invited to the Munich Agreement. So being France's ally while attacking another French ally (Poland) spited France in a way.

 

[nbcman]

How much food can Japan seize from occupied China, Manchukuo, and Korea?

Imperial Japanese forces could seize all of it; however, the ships carrying the food from mainland Asia aren't going to get to Japan past the blockade / mining. The Soviet navy in the Far East plus the remnants of the IJN aren't going to be able to bust the W Allied blockade.