PC: Skip Tunisia?

[SealTheRealDeal]

Could the allies have moved on Sicily and Southern Italy immediately following the Western Desert Campaign and just ignored a now fully cut off Rommel?

Edit: If yes, would there have been any benefit to doing so?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Yes

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Yes

Would there have been benefit in doing so?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Thats what was proposed by the Joint Chiefs at the start of the SYMBOL Conference at Casablanca in January 1943. The idea was the Britsh 1st Army would organize and execute a invasion of Sardinia in March and outflank Sicilly and most of the Italian Peninsula. Churchill vetoed the proposal and tales Roosevelt into approving methodically clearing Tunisia, Sicilly, southern Italy, then Sardinia and Corsica, central Italy, ect... Churchill was backed up by Brooke the Brit CIGS. Later in 1944 Churchill complained about the Allied advance in Italy being like a flea crawling up a leg. Which is ironic in light of his dismissing a end run via Sardinia/Corsica a year earlier.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Churchill & Brooke assumed the capture of Sicily was necessary to reopening the Mediterranean route to regular Allied cargo shipping. As it turned out the Axis air and naval forces became so weak in the spring of 1943 the RN was sending warships through the Sicilian Strait in May. Cargo convoys passing under the Axis nose started in June, a month before Op HUSKY started. They also assumed when making the decision for the Tunisia-Sicilly sequence that the campaign in Tunisia would soon be over. They seem to haven ignoring the pessimistic reports from Alexander & the 1st Army & had difficulty accepting Eisenhowers subsequent report the Tunisian campaign would not be wrapped up until May or June.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Would there have been benefit in doing so?

When air base were established on Sardinia and Corsica the shorter ranged twin engined bombers and fighters could reach northern Italy and south France. OTL Corsica was secured in November 1943 & by January 1944 over 1000 Allied combat aircraft were operating there. That enabled the SHINGLE operation. Unfortunately this was six to eight months to late. The amphib fleet was being withdrawn & the SHINGLE operation could only be a single corps, vs the army size operation needed for success. Securing Sardinia/Corsica in March and April allows a heavier bombing of all of Italy with fighter cover, and a larger invasion near or north of Rome, all six months earlier when the full amphibious fleet was at hand.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Would there have been benefit in doing so?

Certainly to Rommel if they don't leave enough forces to keep him contained, he goes on a Rommel rampage, and captures enough Allied supplies to help keep him fighting for another umpteen months, as he did in Libya and Egypt before running into his old friends/enemies from Tobruk the Australian 9th infantry division again at El Alamein.
Rommel in North Africa doesn't strike me as a guy who's just going to sit there, doing nothing, if your attention wanders off sufficiently somewhere else...

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Certainly to Rommel if they don't leave enough forces to keep him contained, ...

That lesson had been learned by mid 1942, if not earlier. Not bloody likely the Brits would be forgetting that one.

 

[Aber]

That lesson had been learned by mid 1942, if not earlier. Not bloody likely the Brits would be forgetting that one.

Didn't go well when Rommel tried heading East again:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Medenine

He is trying to attack me in daylight with tanks, followed by lorried infantry. I have 500 6pdr atk guns dug in...I have 400 tanks...good infantry...and a great weight of artillery. It is an absolute gift, and the man must be mad.

 

[King Augeas]

The collapse of Axis air strength was extraordinary, and not reasonably predictable, I think.

August 1942 sees multiple carriers and a strong AA screen required for a convoy to survive under hundreds of sorties from Sicily and Sardinia, it's a full fleet operation. And that level of opposition has to be considered when planning operations for the spring.

I think part of the reason for the collapse of Axis air strength was the redeployment to Russia, but that cuts both ways.

 

[thaddeus]

if they bypass Tunisia/Sicily/mainland Italy does Mussolini continue in power? or the loss of Sardinia have the same effects?

a followup would be whether the bypassed Axis troops could be retrieved from Tunisia? Rommel to S. France?

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Didn't go well when Rommel tried heading East again:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Medenine

And in the original timeline the previous month he broke the Americans at Kasserine Pass.
And where exactly are the forces to invade Sicily and southern Italy going to come from, if not by drawing down forces on the borders of Tunisia?

Edit:
Do we actually have a date from the original poster as to when the Allies stop attacking in North Africa and try to make a move on Sicily and southern Italy?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Edit:
Do we actually have a date from the original poster as to when the Allies stop attacking in North Africa and try to make a move on Sicily and southern Italy?

This is a plausibility check, I'm the one asking for the details.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Didn't go well when Rommel tried heading East again:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Medenine

& how many hundreds of kilometers did he advance?

 

[Athelstane]

Certainly to Rommel if they don't leave enough forces to keep him contained, he goes on a Rommel rampage, and captures enough Allied supplies to help keep him fighting for another umpteen months, as he did in Libya and Egypt before running into his old friends/enemies from Tobruk the Australian 9th infantry division again at El Alamein.
Rommel in North Africa doesn't strike me as a guy who's just going to sit there, doing nothing, if your attention wanders off sufficiently somewhere else...

Rommel was in bad health. He was pretty much at the end of his string by Kasserine.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The collapse of Axis air strength was extraordinary, and not reasonably predictable, I think.

August 1942 sees multiple carriers and a strong AA screen required for a convoy to survive under hundreds of sorties from Sicily and Sardinia, it's a full fleet operation. And that level of opposition has to be considered when planning operations for the spring. ...

The P38 could reach Sardinia from Algeria. The P40E used in Africa could each southern Sardinia. The P47 arriving later that year had the range as well. OTL The Axis surged its strength on Sardinia from approx 130 operational aircraft in November 1942 to near 300. Initiating bomber raids from Sardinia in December resulted in Allied counter raids and the Axis air strength there was drawn down over the next few months. That the Italians considered the island indefensible led to a reduction of reinforcement during the winter.

... I think part of the reason for the collapse of Axis air strength was the redeployment to Russia, but that cuts both ways.

German records show 68% of the Luftwaffe combat losses in 1943 were in the west. The bulk of those January through September occurred in the Mediterranean theatre. I don't know what aircraft were moved from the west or the Mediterranian to the eastern front, but in October 1943 600+ aircraft, mostly interceptors were moved from the east to reinforce the air defense of Germany. That was IIRC about 25 to 30 % of the operational air strength in the east.

 

[History Learner]

It's a really bad idea to skip clearing out the Axis in North Africa given the all weather fields in Tunisia made Sicily possible.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Rommel was in bad health. He was pretty much at the end of his string by Kasserine.

Even the optimistic 'Smiling Al' Kesselring doubted the 'Morning Air' offensive would go far. Certainly not to Bone as Rommel intended. Kesselring & Arnim hoped to roll the Allied army back to the Western Dorsal and gain some defensive depth in Tunisia. Rommel failed to achieve even that. After using two Pz Corps to beat up the unsupported 1st Armored Div & chase back some scattered infantry regiments Rommel ran into solid opposition & admitted he'd reached the limit.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

It's a really bad idea to skip clearing out the Axis in North Africa given the all weather fields in Tunisia made Sicily possible.

if they bypass Tunisia/Sicily/mainland Italy does Mussolini continue in power? or the loss of Sardinia have the same effects?

a followup would be whether the bypassed Axis troops could be retrieved from Tunisia? Rommel to S. France?

Good question. Hitler was deep into the not retreat mode by this time. OTL he doubled down in Africa and committed another 200,000 men to a strategic dead end in Tunisia. So maybe they would not be retried in this ATL.

OTL Allied air power operating from Algeria and all-weather air fields built near Tebessa ended effective Axis airpower over Tunisia and chased off the Italian supply ships. That was pretty much settled in early April 1943, tho Kesselring & Rommel could see the signs a month earlier. In April & May the Axis armies in Tunisia collapsed from lack of fuel and ammunition. Both resupply and evacuation were impractical in April. Allied fighter and bombers operating out of Sardinia/Corsica could interdict the entire Italain railway system, as they did en months later in 1944. That adds to the burden of supplying Axis armies in Tunisia or Sicilly. Also accelerates the difficulties of the Italian economy.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

This is a plausibility check, I'm the one asking for the details.

So this could be: 'What if the Allies try to invade Italy/Sicily in 1942, instead of carrying out the Torch landings of the Original Timeline, and the Vichy government (still in existence at this point) gets pressured into using its navy and airforce to contest the landings, whilst Hitler funnels the original timeline troops sent to Tunisia into Sicily and southern Italy, with the Allies not having access to the French North African bases they obtained in the original timeline when Darlan flipped?'