PC: Siad Barre remains in power

Anyway Siad Barre could successfully crush the different rebel factions post 1986

How would Somalia look today

Who would be his successor
 
IF Siad survives post 90 then he would surely invade , because Ethiopia was a mess between 1990 and 1994.
The SNM group had 3000 men in 1988, in 1990 they had access to the arms depots of the Ethiopian army in the Ogaden at jijiga and by the time they declared independence of Somaliland in 1991, they had more than 25,000 men under arms.

One way to remain in power is to not attempt ethnic cleansing and mass murder on the Isaaq clan that made up 67% of the population of the northern regions and the base for the SNM.
The SNM was formed in 1980 and up till 1988 was involved in a guerrilla was from secure bases over the Ethiopian border with the sanction of the Ethiopian regime.
In 1988 Siad threw in the towel and in a peace conference with Ethiopia , accepted the sovereignty of Ethiopia over the Ogaden and promised to stop aid to the EPLF, TPLF , OLF , ALF and WSLF movements ,
Ethiopia agreed to stop providing the SNM with bases and stopping sale of arms.

The SNM had to consider either giving up or going all out and they invaded and occupied HArgiesa and Burco the main cities on the northern regions.

This is where Siads survival comes into question if he had simply besieged those cities and attempted to retake them in street by street urban warfare history might have been quite different.

Instead he decided to carpet bomb them from the air and killed nearly half the population,
50,000 civilians.
This led to more than half the population running over the border into ethiopia into massive refugee camps, i rememeber one camp harti shiekh in the 80's was the largest refugee camp in the world at over 250,000 people the size of a city,

nearly half the somali armed forces 35000 were in the north tied down by 3000 SNM guerillas , and 3/4 of its armour, when the other rebel movements formed like the USC and SPM many of them deserters from the army with cooperation with the SNM, the Siad regime was doomed.
 
Last edited:
Top