PC: Siad Barre overthrown after the Ogaden War

cubano

Check out this link:

Insurgency in Ethnically Divided Authoritarian-led Societies: A Comparative Study of Rebel Movements in Ethiopia, 1974-2014

https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/92088/3/Teshale_Semir_Y_201811_PhD_thesis.pdf

Page 224

Shut out of any possibility of extricating themselves from the Somali government’s iron fist, the SALF and the WSLF—once the most visible forces in eastern Ethiopia—were rendered obscure by the mid-1980s. Their demise—partly caused by excessive dependence on a power that radically changed its anti-Mengistu rhetoric and behavior after its defeat in a war with the military regime—illustrates the important lesson that autonomy is a crucial factor for the survival of a rebel group and the durability of its insurgency.
 

cubano

We should not forget that Cuban and South Yemeni troops with Soviet Union aid saved Ethiopia in 1978. Without foreign support Ethiopia would have ceased to exist as country.
 
OurSacredWar

OurSacredWar

cubano said:
We should not forget that Cuban and South Yemeni troops with Soviet Union aid saved Ethiopia in 1978. Without foreign support Ethiopia would have ceased to exist as country.
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We should also not forget that:
  • Ethiopia fought Somalia to a deadlock for six months before any significant aid from the Eastern Bloc was forthcoming.
  • South Yemen played no frontline role, providing Ethiopia with advisors and equipment.
  • Cuban forces only participated in the February-March 1978 Counteroffensive, playing no prior role in Ethiopia's defense.
  • Ethiopia was unified by the Somali invasion and would not have "ceased to exist without foreign support".
 
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cubano

Check out this link:

https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/arts/history/students/modules/hi277/programme/t2w13/hi277_tareke.pdf

With the arrival of 18,000 Cuban artillery- men, tank crews, and pilots who undertook and suffered much of the dangerous combat tasks during the counter-offensive and about 1,500 Soviet military experts who brought with them a vast amount of armaments, the Somalis stood absolutely no chance of success. That Cuban-Soviet assistance was decisive in both their defeat and expulsion is therefore incontrovertible

The famous ethiopian author Gebru Tareke says Cuban and Soviet Union aid was a decisive one.

In other words: Cuban and Soviet Union saved the day.
 
OurSacredWar

OurSacredWar

cubano said:
Check out this link:

https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/arts/history/students/modules/hi277/programme/t2w13/hi277_tareke.pdf

With the arrival of 18,000 Cuban artillery- men, tank crews, and pilots who undertook and suffered much of the dangerous combat tasks during the counter-offensive and about 1,500 Soviet military experts who brought with them a vast amount of armaments, the Somalis stood absolutely no chance of success. That Cuban-Soviet assistance was decisive in both their defeat and expulsion is therefore incontrovertible

The famous ethiopian author Gebru Tareke says Cuban and Soviet Union aid was a decisive one.

In other words: Cuban and Soviet Union saved the day.
Click to expand...
Check out this link: https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3097438.pdf?refreqid=excelsior:8774ac073a1ef78f9d798a76fe92cc2e

"In the end, they were defeated in part because of Ethiopian tenacity and in part because their country had neither the resources nor an effective plan for a long war. Given the enormous demographic disparity between the two countries and the vastness and variegation of the contested terrain, Somalia could have won the war only through a blitzkrieg. In any major military operation, speed is as important as firepower. The Somali army was well equipped and highly mechanized, but the blitzkrieg the Ethiopians had feared did not occur. It is true, of course, that the Somalis easily swept through the friendly lowlands but got stalled when they reached the hostile highlands. There, the struggle turned into a war of attrition that the Somalis could not have possibly won; after all, the Ethiopian population was ten times larger than that of Somalia and just as fiercely patriotic."

Gebru Tareke also notes that Somalia might've been able to hold on for a few more months at most but that it would've been very unlikely that it'd win.

In other words, the USSR and Cuba did not save the day but allowed Ethiopia to win the war faster and with less casualties.
 
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cubano

A CNN video about Ogaden War:



The author says: "Cubans and Soviets have saved his regime"

A Soviet advisor (Petr Chaplygin) speaks about the role of Cuban troops in Ogaden War:

4:41-5:03

"Cuban troops in Ethiopia played a very important role"
 
OurSacredWar

OurSacredWar

cubano said:
A CNN video about Ogaden War:



The author says: "Cubans and Soviets have saved his regime"

A Soviet advisor (Petr Chaplygin) speaks about the role of Cuban troops in Ogaden War:

4:41-5:03

"Cuban troops in Ethiopia played a very important role"
Click to expand...
First off, the Cubans and Soviets didn't save Mengistu's regime - you can thank Siad Barre's Somalia for that. Second off, I haven't denied that Cuban troops weren't important as they played an important role in the counteroffensive, I'm just saying that Ethiopia wouldn't have disintegrated without the support of the Eastern Bloc as you commented above.
 

cubano

We have different opinions about the same issue. I respect your point of view but many somali,cuban and american sources agree Cuba-Soviet Union alliance saved the day.

Check out this interesting CIA link about Ethiopian army in 1983.


ETHIOPIA-SOMALIA: CONTINUING MILITARY IMBALANCE IN THE OGADEN

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84S00552R000300100003-4.pdf


I would like to see sources that prove my opinion about Ogaden War is wrong.

I have shown you many sources about my point of view. I will be waiting for yours.
 
OurSacredWar

OurSacredWar

cubano said:
We have different opinions about the same issue. I respect your point of view but many somali,cuban and american sources agree Cuba-Soviet Union alliance saved the day.

Check out this interesting CIA link about Ethiopian army in 1983.


ETHIOPIA-SOMALIA: CONTINUING MILITARY IMBALANCE IN THE OGADEN

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84S00552R000300100003-4.pdf


I would like to see sources that prove my opinion about Ogaden War is wrong.

I have shown you many sources about my point of view. I will be waiting for yours.
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I haven't seen any Somali or Cuban sources, could you send some?

I'll look through it.

My sources include Gebru Tareke's The Ethiopian Revolution: War in the Horn of Africa and Tom Cooper's Wings Over Ogaden: The Ethio-Somali War, 1978-79.
 
OurSacredWar

OurSacredWar

cubano said:
Ethiopian professor writes about Ethiopia’s policy of destabilizing Somalia

http://samaynta.com/index.php/2017/...ut-ethiopian-policy-of-destabilizing-somalia/
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"The odds were initially very much against the ability of Ethiopia to defend itself. The urgency to secure military and technical assistance to ward off the looming danger immediately drove the Derg more rapidly into the arms of their USSR, Cuban, and South Yemen allies, and it was this that would ultimately bring Ethiopia victory."

Hmmm, no. While it was instrumental to finishing the war more quickly and saving what might've been sizable/significant losses, the aid from the Eastern Bloc didn't arrive until December 1978 where prior to that, it was primarily Ethiopian forces resisting the Somali invasion and even turning the tide a bit as Somalia became increasingly attritioned with each attempted attack for much of the war.
 

cubano

Have you read the somali sources above?

Tell me your opinion about this article.

Insurgency in Ethnically Divided Authoritarian-led Societies: A Comparative Study of Rebel Movements in Ethiopia, 1974-2014
 
OurSacredWar

OurSacredWar

cubano said:
But you dont show me any source to prove I am wrong.
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Yes, I have. My point was that Ethiopia had already managed to avoid the same disintegration you mentioned without any significant assistance from the USSR and Cuba for up to six months. The same aid that they provided was more so vital to the counteroffensive driving out the regular SNA forces, not towards preserving Ethiopia. If they hadn’t supported Ethiopia, the war would’ve continued in a stalemate largely resembling much of OTL’s Iran-Iraq War. This doesn’t even factor in the fact that Somalia was running out of manpower and equipment by the time the counteroffensive began in February 1978.

My sources:
  • The Ethiopia-Somalia War of 1977 Revisited by Gebru Tareke
  • The Ethiopian Revolution: War in the Horn of Africa by Gebru Tareke
  • Wings over Ogaden: The Ethio-Somali War, 1978-79 by Tom Cooper
  • From Victory to Collapse: The Ethiopian Army, 1977-1991 by Fantahun Ayalew
  • The Soviet Involvement in the Ogaden War by Kenneth G. Weiss
 
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