PC: Russo-Ottoman Alliance, WWI

Before the Ottoman Empire officially entered the war, there were serious talks going on between the Ottoman and Russian government in Constantinople about an alliance that would free up Russian troops in the Caucasus to fight in Eastern Europe. However, these talks were brought to a halt when the German dreadnought SMS Goeben attempted to enter the Dardanelles and were allowed to do so by the Ottoman government, effectively signalling what side the Ottomans were going to lean towards.

Granted, the Russians were less than receptive and the Turks were already leaning pretty heavily towards Germany at this point, but how plausible is it that such an arrangement could be reached? The Goeben did not have all of its boilers working at the time. Some sort of accident that delays its progress might allow the British to catch up to it before it reaches the Straits. If not in 1914, what sort of POD/PODs would have to exist for that to happen?
 
Hmmm. Now I didn't know about this!

Do you know who started these talks Agatho?

The Russians and the Ottomans were apparently close to signing an alliance together before the 1877 war. The Russians dropped that opportunity as soon as they saw the chance for expansion in the Balkans. I suspect both sides in 1914 would have that history in mind, making them hesitant.

Certainly, Russia signing such an agreement would bring her significant advantage, and quite likely, allow her to survive WW1.

What would the Russians promise the Ottomans though? It is difficult for them to offer territory to the Ottomans the way the Germans can.

fasquardon
 
Hmmm. Now I didn't know about this!

Do you know who started these talks Agatho?

The Russians and the Ottomans were apparently close to signing an alliance together before the 1877 war. The Russians dropped that opportunity as soon as they saw the chance for expansion in the Balkans. I suspect both sides in 1914 would have that history in mind, making them hesitant.

Certainly, Russia signing such an agreement would bring her significant advantage, and quite likely, allow her to survive WW1.

What would the Russians promise the Ottomans though? It is difficult for them to offer territory to the Ottomans the way the Germans can.

fasquardon

They were started by the Russian military attache in Constantinople, M.N. Leontiev, but got taken up fairly quickly by the Ottoman Foreign Ministry and the Grand Vizier. The offer made by Enver Pasha (Then Ottoman War Minister) to the Russians was, according to my source that:

The Ottoman Endgame by Sean McMeekin said:
in exchange for Russia signing a five- or ten-year defensive alliance with the Ottoman Empire and hoping to broker a a new Balkan settlement at the expense of Vienna (the idea was for Turkey to regain several Aegean islands from Greece, with Greece compensated by Albania and Bulgaria given parts of Macedonia by Serbia, who would herself win Bosnia-Herzegovina), Enver promised to withdraw the IX and XI corps of the Ottoman Third Army from eastern Turkey, so as to allow Russia to send the Army of the Caucasus to reinforce her European fronts against Austria and Germany. The day such a treaty was signed, the supposedly Germanophile war minister promised Leontiev, he would expel Liman von Sanders and the entire German military mission from Turkey.
 
You need another Ottoman government for this.

Ok, then how would that government come into being? Also, it seems as though this Ottoman government was pragmatic enough to at least consider it, and the Germans may not even want to stick around given that the Kaiser really only invested in the Ottoman Empire out of a fondness for Abdul Hamid II and the office of Caliph.

In my opinion the sticking point may be the Russians. Would allying with a Muslim power, and one that holds Tsargrad no less, be something that would go over domestically?
 
What do the Ottomans gain from this?

A secure Caucasus frontier, and more favorable border conditions in the Balkans/Aegean. The alliance also would tie them in with the rest of the Entente and opens the door for investment by the Great Powers down the road.

The Ottomans government was also interested in seeing how much they could get from the Entente to stay neutral. Haggling and working out a deal with the British/French might also be part of this.
 
They were started by the Russian military attache in Constantinople, M.N. Leontiev, but got taken up fairly quickly by the Ottoman Foreign Ministry and the Grand Vizier. The offer made by Enver Pasha (Then Ottoman War Minister) to the Russians was, according to my source that:

The Ottoman Endgame by Sean McMeekin said:

Interesting. Enver's proposal does sounds at least a bit like Sazonov's own ideas (granting northern Epirus to Greece in exchange for voluntary territorial losses elsewhere). But while Greece might have just barely afforded to give up Kavalla to Bulgaria, I'm not sure she can really afford to give up more than a few islands to the Ottoman Empire.

Before the outbreak of the war, Russian foreign policy also promoted the transfer of Albania to an Ottoman prince. The Albanians chased prince William out of the country on August 31 - that might have been a good opportunity for Russia to install an Ottoman ruler there as part of their hypothetical reconciliation, or to carry out the territorial changes. Or maybe even both.
 
Interesting. Enver's proposal does sounds at least a bit like Sazonov's own ideas (granting northern Epirus to Greece in exchange for voluntary territorial losses elsewhere). But while Greece might have just barely afforded to give up Kavalla to Bulgaria, I'm not sure she can really afford to give up more than a few islands to the Ottoman Empire.

Before the outbreak of the war, Russian foreign policy also promoted the transfer of Albania to an Ottoman prince. The Albanians chased prince William out of the country on August 31 - that might have been a good opportunity for Russia to install an Ottoman ruler there as part of their hypothetical reconciliation, or to carry out the territorial changes. Or maybe even both.

But would the Tsar approve? If it happens, I think the Ottomans would just want the islands closest to the Anatolian coastline for security reasons.

Say the agreement works out in principle though. Would the other Balkan states go for it? They may not want to change their borders that much. Serbia would probably be fine with the arrangement, but the Greeks and Bulgarians might be harder to convince. Romania I think would be unaffected in their allegiance. They'll want Transylvania, and only the Entente would give it to them.

I could see Bulgaria definitely fighting for the CP in this scenario. In which case, how safe is Constantinople?
 
Bulgaria would be less likely to join CP...even in OTL, it spent a long time deciding; and the Ottomans presence in the CP camp and failure of the Gallipoli operation were major factors in Bulgaria's decision. In this scenario, joining the CP would be less "gain huge territories with minimal effort" and more "fight all four of your neighbors at once and pray it works out"; and the government in Sofia will be quite aware of that.

Greece is more risky. Public opinion was on the side of the Entente, but that may change depending on the actions of the Ottomans and how the Entente's diplomats handle the whole situation.
 
Bulgaria would be less likely to join CP...even in OTL, it spent a long time deciding; and the Ottomans presence in the CP camp and failure of the Gallipoli operation were major factors in Bulgaria's decision. In this scenario, joining the CP would be less "gain huge territories with minimal effort" and more "fight all four of your neighbors at once and pray it works out"; and the government in Sofia will be quite aware of that.

Greece is more risky. Public opinion was on the side of the Entente, but that may change depending on the actions of the Ottomans and how the Entente's diplomats handle the whole situation.

Hard to see Greece on the same side as the Ottomans though. If Bulgaria stays neutral, then Greece might be willing to enter the war allied with the CP. A two front war would be tricky, but I can't imagine that a polity that wants to control the Anatolian coastline would abandon any Aegean possessions without a fight.
 
Greece is vulnerable to attacks by sea. With the Ottomans right next door allied to the French and British, they are even less likely to join the CPs than in OTL.
 
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