PC: (Russian) February & (German) November Revolutions spiral into civil war?

[TerranGames]

Before someone mentions it, I know that both of these revolutions did eventually spiral into civil war, Russia's with dual power and eventually Red October, and Germany's quasi-civil war with constant Communist uprisings, military coups, and general strikes for the first couple years after WWI, but that's not what I'm talking about here. What I'm asking about here is the plausibility of a civil war erupting immediately against the monarchies, not after the monarchs have been toppled, between the revolutionaries because they can't agree on what should come next.

I understand that after years of war and starvation, both Willy and Nicky were incredibly unpopular, and that most were not willing to die for them anymore, the sailors in Kiel quenching the fires in their boilers, and the Petrograd Garrison melting away like butter, and that any spark would have caused the monarchies to go bang immediately. I'm just asking if there's a plausible POD (that still leads to a recognizable WWI,) that has these revolutions going off half-cocked, that have Willy and Nicky battling to keep their thrones against, say, a United Front Provisional Government, or against multiple uprisings by Communists, Liberals, Anarchists, Freikorps, etc.

What would it take? Would it be a simple as say, as soon as Nicky get the news of riots in Petrograd, him personally deciding to lead his loyal troops to crush it, and Willy doing the same, or would it take a much earlier and more extensive POD, different decisions, policies?

(And while you're at it, maybe throw Blessed Karl in there for good measure, and have him try to keep Austria-Hungary together by force?)

Thanks.

 

[Salvador79]

Before someone mentions it, I know that both of these revolutions did eventually spiral into civil war, Russia's with dual power and eventually Red October, and Germany's quasi-civil war with constant Communist uprisings, military coups, and general strikes for the first couple years after WWI, but that's not what I'm talking about here. What I'm asking about here is the plausibility of a civil war erupting immediately against the monarchies, not after the monarchs have been toppled, between the revolutionaries because they can't agree on what should come next.

I understand that after years of war and starvation, both Willy and Nicky were incredibly unpopular, and that most were not willing to die for them anymore, the sailors in Kiel quenching the fires in their boilers, and the Petrograd Garrison melting away like butter, and that any spark would have caused the monarchies to go bang immediately. I'm just asking if there's a plausible POD (that still leads to a recognizable WWI,) that has these revolutions going off half-cocked, that have Willy and Nicky battling to keep their thrones against, say, a United Front Provisional Government, or against multiple uprisings by Communists, Liberals, Anarchists, Freikorps, etc.

What would it take? Would it be a simple as say, as soon as Nicky get the news of riots in Petrograd, him personally deciding to lead his loyal troops to crush it, and Willy doing the same, or would it take a much earlier and more extensive POD, different decisions, policies?

(And while you're at it, maybe throw Blessed Karl in there for good measure, and have him try to keep Austria-Hungary together by force?)

Thanks.

Tough call. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I have no idea how.
So many millions were under arms and in the midst of fighting. Going home and surrendering in droves is what you do when everything's utterly clear. (Just look at desperate Russian soldiers in the current war NOT doing this because it's evidently not yet clear at all that Russia will lose this and the Putinist system will crumble.)
How you get them to stop fighting the enemy empire and instead immediately start fighting each other is, well, tough to wrap your head around.

 

[CHKeeley]

In Russia at least, it is difficult to thread the needle there. You somehow need to ensure *more support* for the Tsar and monarchy to ensure that they have troops loyal to them that don't just disintegrate on contact, while also increasing political tensions to a rupture point. The tendency historically was that the more that the front worsened and the domestic situation became more strained, the more that support for the Tsar across the political spectrum collapsed. The monarchy was almost totally abandoned by February. Even Russia's hard right was so sidelined by events that a serious Tsarist-sympathetic armed faction didn't begin to arise until early 1918, almost a year after February. And even these factions were largely led by the 'apolitical military men' types that predominated among the pre-war and wartime officer elite rather than open Tsarists. It was just so totally discredited and bankrupt. There's also the fact that almost all organized political parties across the post-February spectrum supported continuing the war, which lends itself to a hesitancy to fight it out until a solution to the German issue presents itself. The general tendency among the rank and file soldiers in domestic clashes also was to totally disintegrate when it became clear one side could inflict more violence than the other. Kornilov's putsch and the October revolution are prime examples, but there are plenty of others. There just wasn't the stomach to fight it out until mid 1918 really. The Bolsheviks might have the stomach, but they tried a half-cocked seizure historically and it resulted in a sound beating during the July Days. The capacity for violence was hardly ever balanced enough to break out into prolonged civil war throughout much of 1917.

My instinct for the German situation is that you need a stronger series of defections from the SPD. Perhaps an outright party split could be affected at the beginning of the war which grows into an outright subversive anti-war movement by 1917, but it is hard to see how to achieve that without drastic PoDs or how it could not be effectively repressed as most anti-war movements were in combatant countries until the critical situation in 1918.

Overall, I'd say the tendency was for revolutionary movements to be more spontaneous rather than organized armed actions. This meant that sentiment simmered under the façade of order until it reached a critical mass and exploded into outright collapse of the war effort. Mutinous armies, soldiers and workers committees, and stoppages at the factories, etc. "Half-cocked revolutions" tend to be launched by self-conscious putsches by party organizations that don't go as planned, but these either didn't really exist (as is the German case) or didn't gain enough support early enough to not be smashed flat (as in Russia). In that sense, I think this is difficult to achieve but not impossible.

In the case of Russia, 1905 is honestly a good parallel to what you are asking here - revolutionary risings and armed clashes between revolutionaries and partisans of the state throughout the country during wartime. But I do think this requires a stronger and more popular Tsarism in order to give it some serious defenders when the time comes. This probably means some farther ranging PoDs like a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War or some more successes on the front in the Great War (although not enough to prevent deterioration and collapse of course). I'm not sure, but I'd love to hear what others think.

 

[MxCokoko]

Honestly? I think it's unlikely a February Civil War devolves into a pro-democratic/socialist versus Tsarist civil war; I think it's much more likely the Bolsheviks/Mensheviks try to coup the new government and causes a Red/White Civil War. Maybe there's a Revolution in June or July instead of October due to needing to plan out attacks and rally workers and supporters, etc.
As for Germany, as Ulyanovsk said, you'd need more support from the Social Democrats and the wider German public. Maybe if the war goes slightly worse for them or if the Red Revolution in Russia goes much better initially than it does IRL you could see more soldier mutinities to join the Left's revolution.

 

[TerranGames]

snip

Yeah, I know, at best it'll be like walking a tightrope between the powderkeg exploding or just fizzling out.

My instinct for the German situation is that you need a stronger series of defections from the SPD. Perhaps an outright party split could be affected at the beginning of the war which grows into an outright subversive anti-war movement by 1917, but it is hard to see how to achieve that without drastic PoDs or how it could not be effectively repressed as most anti-war movements were in combatant countries until the critical situation in 1918.

Can you explain what you mean? Wouldn't this just lead to effectively, an USPD-led November Revolution? Or do you mean this alt-USPD/Spartacus Group launching an uprising in 1917?

Overall, I'd say the tendency was for revolutionary movements to be more spontaneous rather than organized armed actions. This meant that sentiment simmered under the façade of order until it reached a critical mass and exploded into outright collapse of the war effort. Mutinous armies, soldiers and workers committees, and stoppages at the factories, etc. "Half-cocked revolutions" tend to be launched by self-conscious putsches by party organizations that don't go as planned, but these either didn't really exist (as is the German case) or didn't gain enough support early enough to not be smashed flat (as in Russia). In that sense, I think this is difficult to achieve but not impossible.

Yeah, the spontaneous ones do tend to be the really explosive ones, like an overinflated balloon popping, the moment a weak spot appears, and the planned putsches are the ones that go off half-cocked, like Sinn Fein 1918 vs the Easter Rising.

In the case of Russia, 1905 is honestly a good parallel to what you are asking here - revolutionary risings and armed clashes between revolutionaries and partisans of the state throughout the country during wartime. But I do think this requires a stronger and more popular Tsarism in order to give it some serious defenders when the time comes. This probably means some farther ranging PoDs like a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War or some more successes on the front in the Great War (although not enough to prevent deterioration and collapse of course). I'm not sure, but I'd love to hear what others think.

Maybe have them make some reforms before 1914, so Russia sees a stronger performance in the war, and so by 1917, they've got their shit together, and the tide has turned and are pushing the Germans back into East Prussia and Congress Poland, but the war doesn't seem like it'll end anytime soon, and Nicky is smart enough not to take command of the Army (or maybe he does, since he's winning this time), makes promises for post-war reform (ASB, I know), and the SRs aren't quite as stubborn about continuing the war, and join the Bolsheviks calls for peace. Would this lend enough support to the Tsarists come February '17 for civil war to break out? Or would it still not be enough?

 

[RousseauX]

What would it take? Would it be a simple as say, as soon as Nicky get the news of riots in Petrograd, him personally deciding to lead his loyal troops to crush it, and Willy doing the same, or would it take a much earlier and more extensive POD, different decisions, policies?

Nicky didn't have any loyal troops by Feb 1917, he pissed off everyone on the political spectrum in Russia by that point.

it wasn't just the liberals and the revolutionary left which wanted to oust him, the hardline conservatives at court and even members of the royal family wanted him out. Everyone agreed that Nicky bungled the war and refuses to make any improvements. Most thought empress Alexandra was a German spy, or that the -perception- that she was one was fatal to the regime's survival.

even the lifeguard regiments which personally guarded the royal family agreed to him being removed, I kinda doubt if any troops would have followed Nicky into suppressing anything

 

[NuclearJazz]

Well, for Russia we can theoretically imagine the situation that Polivanov turned out to be more prescient than in reality and ordered the removal of reserve troops from the capital as early as 1915-1916. This would not help the Tsar avoid the February Revolution, because the food crisis in the capitals would not go anywhere, but in this case the revolutionaries would not have troops on hand. In this case, the Stavka may come up with the idea of organizing a big march on Petrograd: at the beginning of 17, the army units at the front, of course, not in the best possible condition, but the army is quite manageable, there is no collapse with desertions yet.
But it must be remembered that in a political sense the driving force behind the February Revolution was a strange alliance between the majority of the Duma and the senior generals, to which some senior executive officials were attached. Apart from the lack of troops in Petrograd, Nicholas must have some general at hand who would agree to lead and be able to organize such a campaign (that is, not Ivanov, as in reality). Maybe, for example, if Evert had commanded the Northern Front, this would have been possible.