PC: Russian breakaway states in the Baltic

Anyway you could have Russian breakaway Republics in Estonia and Latvia,any point After the Break up of the Soviet Union
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It would be rather hard to do, IMHO. Indeed, life in the Baltic states was pretty good after the dissolution of the USSR and thus there was little incentive for secession.

However, if France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Soviet Union still conquers the Baltic states, and if the Soviet Union still collapses several decades later and the Estonians and Latvians attempt to expel ethnic Russians from their country (basically, without the Fall of France, perhaps such behavior might be more tolerable; after all, the 1923 Greco-Turkish population exchanges were praised as a good means of conflict resolution), then we could see ethnic Russian secession attempts in Estonia and Latvia.

Indeed, would that work for this?
 
For this to happen, the Estonian and Latvian states would need to be substantially more fragile and the Russian state substantially more aggressive. The latter is imaginable, I suppose, but it would take something unexpected for Estonia and Latvia not to be run by competent people able to build alliances at home and abroad. IMHO.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
For this to happen, the Estonian and Latvian states would need to be substantially more fragile and the Russian state substantially more aggressive. The latter is imaginable, I suppose, but it would take something unexpected for Estonia and Latvia not to be run by competent people able to build alliances at home and abroad. IMHO.
If ethnic cleansing isn't looked as unfavorably as it did in the 1990s in our TL (for instance, if France doesn't fall during WWII and if the Nazis are overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle before they can really implement the Holocaust), I could see Estonia and/or Latvia trying to expel its ethnic Russian population after the collapse of the Soviet Union and thus triggering Russian secessionist rebellions.
 
if France doesn't fall during WWII and if the Nazis are overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle before they can really implement the Holocaust), I could see Estonia and/or Latvia trying to expel its ethnic Russian population
Without all the world war 2 dead , Wouldn't it be likely for russians to make up the majority of both Estonia and Latvia
 
One point to note here is that the Baltic states are pretty small as it is. Any ethnic Russian statelets that try to break away would most likely be nonviable as independent states, and could only be maintained as de facto Russian puppets.

And, to look at the issue from a demographic POV, the Russians have concentrated in the biggest Baltic towns for pretty much obvious reasons (industry, economics), in Estonia and Latvia for example the biggest Russian populations were in and around the capital cities. It is hard to see the capital of a nation just gaining independence break away as the ethnic Estonians and Latvians would surely try to hold on to Tallinn and Riga more than anything.
 
Last edited:
IIRC, the Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire almost has this, but there is a Russian autonomous region within TTL's Estonia.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...s-russian-empire.245924/page-163#post-8252843

I remember that, and I also remember thinking that Balkanizing the Baltic statets would have been a pretty horrible prospect. Not only would it include a possibility for disturbances and inter-ethnic violence, it would probably also mean that the entire area is doomed to extreme political and (especially) economic instability for decades to come. Considering how well the Baltic states have done IOTL, compared to the position they started from in 1990 and the general developments in formerly Soviet states, things would have necessarily been worse all around in such a world. Also, de facto, for the ethnic Russians in the area, even taking into account the political disenfranchisement many of them have faced IOTL.
 
One point to note here is that the Baltic states are pretty small as it is. Any ethnic Russian statelets that try to break away would most likely be nonviable as independent states, and could only be maintained as de facto Russian puppets.
This is the key thing - a Russian Baltic state would likely resemble something like what's happening in Donetsk and Luhansk right now, rather than a fully functioning nation. Tiny, unrecognized states whose primary goal is to join Russia rather than try anything independent.
 
This is the key thing - a Russian Baltic state would likely resemble something like what's happening in Donetsk and Luhansk right now, rather than a fully functioning nation. Tiny, unrecognized states whose primary goal is to join Russia rather than try anything independent.

The only place in the Baltic States where I could see a statelet operating would be in Estonia's extreme northeast, around Narva. Although two-thirds Estonian by population before the Second World War, the Stalinist relocation of survivors and post-Second World War immigration ended up giving Narva a 95% Russian/Russophone majority. Directly adjoining Russia--the city of Ivangorod used to be the eastern suburb of Narva--if there was any place where there could have been a border change, it would have been there.

Latgale, in eastern Latvia, is a distant second. Strong Russian and Russophone population, but the area is also ethnically quite diverse.
 
If ethnic cleansing isn't looked as unfavorably as it did in the 1990s in our TL (for instance, if France doesn't fall during WWII and if the Nazis are overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle before they can really implement the Holocaust), I could see Estonia and/or Latvia trying to expel its ethnic Russian population after the collapse of the Soviet Union and thus triggering Russian secessionist rebellions.

That sort of implies, though, that the Baltic States would not have been annexed to the Soviet Union. In that case, Estonia would have a relatively small Russian population--there were proportionally about as many Swedes. Latvia had a larger Russian population, concentrated around Riga and in the east, but there too it was a small minority.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That sort of implies, though, that the Baltic States would not have been annexed to the Soviet Union. In that case, Estonia would have a relatively small Russian population--there were proportionally about as many Swedes. Latvia had a larger Russian population, concentrated around Riga and in the east, but there too it was a small minority.
Didn't the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact give the Soviet Union a carte blanche to annex the Baltic countries, though? Indeed, since the M-R Pact was signed before anyone knew that France was going to fall (late 1939 vs. mid-1940 for each of these events), I don't see why exactly no Fall of France would change anything in regards to this. I mean, even if France doesn't fall, the war isn't going to end immediately--rather, it will probably last for at least a year and thus give the Soviet Union more than enough time to annex the Baltic countries.
 
That sort of implies, though, that the Baltic States would not have been annexed to the Soviet Union. In that case, Estonia would have a relatively small Russian population--there were proportionally about as many Swedes. Latvia had a larger Russian population, concentrated around Riga and in the east, but there too it was a small minority.
No. there was around 8% Russians, 1% Swedes and 2% Germans before war.
 
Top