Would something like not granting Russians citizenship be possibly and would that make Estonia and Latvia more fragileI suppose, but it would take something unexpected for Estonia and Latvia not to be run by competent people able to build alliances at home and abroad. IMHO.
If ethnic cleansing isn't looked as unfavorably as it did in the 1990s in our TL (for instance, if France doesn't fall during WWII and if the Nazis are overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle before they can really implement the Holocaust), I could see Estonia and/or Latvia trying to expel its ethnic Russian population after the collapse of the Soviet Union and thus triggering Russian secessionist rebellions.For this to happen, the Estonian and Latvian states would need to be substantially more fragile and the Russian state substantially more aggressive. The latter is imaginable, I suppose, but it would take something unexpected for Estonia and Latvia not to be run by competent people able to build alliances at home and abroad. IMHO.
Without all the world war 2 dead , Wouldn't it be likely for russians to make up the majority of both Estonia and Latviaif France doesn't fall during WWII and if the Nazis are overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle before they can really implement the Holocaust), I could see Estonia and/or Latvia trying to expel its ethnic Russian population
WW2 hurt the Estonians and Latvians just as badly as it hit Russians.Without all the world war 2 dead , Wouldn't it be likely for russians to make up the majority of both Estonia and Latvia
IIRC, the Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire almost has this, but there is a Russian autonomous region within TTL's Estonia.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...s-russian-empire.245924/page-163#post-8252843
This is the key thing - a Russian Baltic state would likely resemble something like what's happening in Donetsk and Luhansk right now, rather than a fully functioning nation. Tiny, unrecognized states whose primary goal is to join Russia rather than try anything independent.One point to note here is that the Baltic states are pretty small as it is. Any ethnic Russian statelets that try to break away would most likely be nonviable as independent states, and could only be maintained as de facto Russian puppets.
This is the key thing - a Russian Baltic state would likely resemble something like what's happening in Donetsk and Luhansk right now, rather than a fully functioning nation. Tiny, unrecognized states whose primary goal is to join Russia rather than try anything independent.
If ethnic cleansing isn't looked as unfavorably as it did in the 1990s in our TL (for instance, if France doesn't fall during WWII and if the Nazis are overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle before they can really implement the Holocaust), I could see Estonia and/or Latvia trying to expel its ethnic Russian population after the collapse of the Soviet Union and thus triggering Russian secessionist rebellions.
Didn't the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact give the Soviet Union a carte blanche to annex the Baltic countries, though? Indeed, since the M-R Pact was signed before anyone knew that France was going to fall (late 1939 vs. mid-1940 for each of these events), I don't see why exactly no Fall of France would change anything in regards to this. I mean, even if France doesn't fall, the war isn't going to end immediately--rather, it will probably last for at least a year and thus give the Soviet Union more than enough time to annex the Baltic countries.That sort of implies, though, that the Baltic States would not have been annexed to the Soviet Union. In that case, Estonia would have a relatively small Russian population--there were proportionally about as many Swedes. Latvia had a larger Russian population, concentrated around Riga and in the east, but there too it was a small minority.
No. there was around 8% Russians, 1% Swedes and 2% Germans before war.That sort of implies, though, that the Baltic States would not have been annexed to the Soviet Union. In that case, Estonia would have a relatively small Russian population--there were proportionally about as many Swedes. Latvia had a larger Russian population, concentrated around Riga and in the east, but there too it was a small minority.
No. there was around 8% Russians, 1% Swedes and 2% Germans before war.