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So is this plausible:
Delay the Botta Conspriacy, which weakened the Bestuzhevs, to occur a month later due to some hestitatoon from Lestoq or him taking too long to produce evidence. And therefore after the Treaty of Abo. Here because of the delayed Botta Conspriacy Elizabeth chooses to follow Bestuzhev's plan to demand Finland from Sweden. But then still have the Botta Conspriacy just later and end all hope of a Russian alliance with Britain at the time.
Finally on that last sentence is it possible that Elizabeth might stay out of the European war without the Botta Conspriacy?