Reagan in 1968 is considered a Golderwaterite nut by the North. He's also not winning the South against George Wallace, because Wallace actually *is* the sort of Democrat the South wants, rather than a Californian Republican. Note that Reagan did comparatively weaker in the South in 1980, because Carter (for all his baggage) was Southern.
So despite all that has happened, I think you see Hubert Humphrey win comfortably, Wallace do as well as OTL, and Reagan only winning California and a handful of Western states.
The Conservative wing of the Republican Party will have lost consecutive elections (one in a landslide, one they should have won). The moderates take over for the next quarter century.