PC: Prussia presses on after Königgrätz

[Hashoosh]

I'm trying to figure out some implications from a counterfactual I've been thinking about. In July 1866, the Prussian army decisively defeated the Austrians (and Saxons) at Königgrätz in Bohemia, sealing the Austro-Prussian War and making a Prussian led Germany all but a certainty.

But you already knew that, didn't you?

Anyways, it's discussed in Bismarcks journals that there were members of the Prussian Army and government who wished to pursue a far more punishing peace on the Habsburgs, and to do so would involve pushing deeper into their Empire

I'm looking for a few things here:
-what changes would have to be made in the Prussian rulership to get an expanded war
-how long could the Austrians put up an effective resistance to Prussian invasion before capitulating. The demands are likely to be onerous, Bohemia-Moravia and maybe the Tirol to Bavaria as Napoleon did (or a set up like Alsace Lorraine 5 years later)
-will there be foreign intervention, the UK, France, Russia and Italy are all in play here.

After the immediate few years, I don't know how to speculate on the geopolitical situation without sketching out a TL (which is what I'm planning). But I think the German-Austrian alliance is dead in the water.

 

[Falecius]

Italy was already in the war, on Prussia's side.
Might get Trento and Gradisca (almost certainly not Trieste) out of a longer war, but this would cause concern in Prussia as the places were regarded as historically German lands.
Bavaria is on the losing side of the conflict so unlikely to get anything out of it unless it is a compensation for losses to Prussia elsewhere - say, Prussia decides to revive its historical claim to Ansbach and Bayreuth and goes on to demand all of Bavarian Francony, Bavaria gets compensated with stuff Tyrol, Vorarlberg, Innviertel and/or Salzburg. Still unlikely, it gives Prussia other disconnected blocks of land which are seen as unwieldy.
I don't see Prussia so excited at the prospect of annexing all of Bohemia and Moravia, those Czechs are too much of headache: neither Germans or Lutherans, and already developing a national consciousness. Austrian Silesia is a definite possibility though.
OTOH, Prussia had long desired to incorporate Saxony, or more of it anyway, and might do just that. In the extreme scenario, they might decide something like taking Saxony AND promote its king as the new ruler of Bohemia-Moravia - that's quite a massive shift in Central European geopolitics. Indeed, detaching all of Bohemia/Moravia from Vienna more or less amounts to destroying Austria as a Great Power altogether - I don't see Prussia doing that with Bismarck involved in decision-making.
An outcome that is very punishing to Vienna and still realistic may be something on these lines: in addition to OTL gains, Prussia annexes Austrian Silesia and all of Saxony. The former king of Saxony is installed to rule something somewhere: let's say, the former Duchy of Wurzburg, cut off from Bavari, with Bavaria compensated with Tyrol (except Trento that goes to Italy), Vorarlberg and/or a border strip from Austria to the east (may or may not include Salzburg). Italy gets Trento and a border strip east of Venetia (NOT including Trieste or Gorizia, in all likelyhood). Perhaps Prussia decides to get some other minor border corrections from other Austrrian aligned minor states, like in Hohenzollern at the expense of Wurttemberg and in Thuringia.
Prussia might also go for taking Saxony without compensation, of course. The did that to Hanover, Hesse-Kassel and Nassau IOTL after all. But no need to antagonise even more people, if they feel like they want Austria to pay for it.

Of course, this has huge ramifications in Austria. Depending on how crippling the blow is, this might foster revenge desires - Bismarck would have to plan a two-front war from the start if he considers confronting France in this case, as a Franco-Prussian war would be the perfect opportunity for Austria to reverse the outcome. This gives you either no war, or a general European one (security for Prussia comes from alliances here, very likely with both Italy and Russia) which team Austria/France is very likely to lose, barring British involvement. Grossdeutschland is the works here.

 

[kreepysam]

Italy was already in the war, on Prussia's side.
Might get Trento and Gradisca (almost certainly not Trieste) out of a longer war, but this would cause concern in Prussia as the places were regarded as historically German lands.
Bavaria is on the losing side of the conflict so unlikely to get anything out of it unless it is a compensation for losses to Prussia elsewhere - say, Prussia decides to revive its historical claim to Ansbach and Bayreuth and goes on to demand all of Bavarian Francony, Bavaria gets compensated with stuff Tyrol, Vorarlberg, Innviertel and/or Salzburg. Still unlikely, it gives Prussia other disconnected blocks of land which are seen as unwieldy.
I don't see Prussia so excited at the prospect of annexing all of Bohemia and Moravia, those Czechs are too much of headache: neither Germans or Lutherans, and already developing a national consciousness. Austrian Silesia is a definite possibility though.
OTOH, Prussia had long desired to incorporate Saxony, or more of it anyway, and might do just that. In the extreme scenario, they might decide something like taking Saxony AND promote its king as the new ruler of Bohemia-Moravia - that's quite a massive shift in Central European geopolitics. Indeed, detaching all of Bohemia/Moravia from Vienna more or less amounts to destroying Austria as a Great Power altogether - I don't see Prussia doing that with Bismarck involved in decision-making.
An outcome that is very punishing to Vienna and still realistic may be something on these lines: in addition to OTL gains, Prussia annexes Austrian Silesia and all of Saxony. The former king of Saxony is installed to rule something somewhere: let's say, the former Duchy of Wurzburg, cut off from Bavari, with Bavaria compensated with Tyrol (except Trento that goes to Italy), Vorarlberg and/or a border strip from Austria to the east (may or may not include Salzburg). Italy gets Trento and a border strip east of Venetia (NOT including Trieste or Gorizia, in all likelyhood). Perhaps Prussia decides to get some other minor border corrections from other Austrrian aligned minor states, like in Hohenzollern at the expense of Wurttemberg and in Thuringia.
Prussia might also go for taking Saxony without compensation, of course. The did that to Hanover, Hesse-Kassel and Nassau IOTL after all. But no need to antagonise even more people, if they feel like they want Austria to pay for it.

Of course, this has huge ramifications in Austria. Depending on how crippling the blow is, this might foster revenge desires - Bismarck would have to plan a two-front war from the start if he considers confronting France in this case, as a Franco-Prussian war would be the perfect opportunity for Austria to reverse the outcome. This gives you either no war, or a general European one (security for Prussia comes from alliances here, very likely with both Italy and Russia) which team Austria/France is very likely to lose, barring British involvement. Grossdeutschland is the works here.

I believe Prussia intended to fully compensate the Hanoverians. However, they refused to accept the money on principle and maintained their rights had been illegally usurped. Supposedly, the moneys that had been secretly set aside for this purpose then became Bismarcks handy litttle slush fund for much of the rest of his career

 

[Nivek]

IIRC King Wilhelm I was the one pressing for bigger punitive actions and more rewards against austria, he wanted all of bohemia(if moravia was not clear),Bohemia make sense, Bohemia(as King of Bohemia) was the Hasburg old Prince-Elector Title from the old HRE, taking away Bohemia was the ultimate humillation, formally kicking out of HRE-Germany.

After that. i think he did not care the rest, he did critize bismarck for annexing hannover rather giving it to another noble so Saxony would be leave alone.

 

[Deckhand]

Prussia got out when the getting was good.

The Austrian army only took 31k casualties at Koenigratz, and got off the field in fairly decent order. to this day the Austrian artillery corps celebrates the day as the "day of the guns" when the reserve austrian artillery corps held the Prussian pursuit.

If Prussia keeps going they will have problems. Supplies were low, and due to the slowness of the Austrian mobilization ~100k men of the Austrian army had not come up yet. Given a few more weeks the Austrian Army facing the Prussians would actually be quite a bit stronger than the one defeated at Koenigratz. Due to Custozza and Lissa, the Italians were back on their heels, and something of a non factor, and the French were starting to make demands and noises about the Rhineland

If Prussia presses for more, there they will make the Austrians fight on, and the Prussians may well lose. Bismarck was smart and took what he knew he could reasonably get. Any more and it could all fall apart.

 

[Westphalian]

Austrian Silesia is a given. It is soo tiny, leaving it out a more crushing peace would be weird.

Prussia wanted to annex Saxony. Austria had insisted that Saxony remain independent, as a point of honor for their only ally who had actually put up a fight. Bismark was in a hurry to get peace, so he agreed.

No. Saxony was favored by Austria because it was the only ally that had put its whole army under Austrian command before the war. The others kept their separate armies, but they did fight. See Battle of Langensalza for Hanover and the (German-language) articles on the River Main campaign for the southern German states.

If we are also cutting down Bavaria, it might be a good time to press for total integration of the Royal Armies into the Imperial one. Do away with the Bavarian and Wurtemburg armies while we are at it. Revise the constitution of the German Empire a bit.

What German Empire in 1866?
You are getting the dates mixed up in a seriously distorting way. with hindsight it might seem unavaoidable, but in 1866 the complete integration of Bad, Wür, and Bav in a Prussia-led Germany was far from certain.
Without the unifying experience of a victorious war against France, we might see the South Germans treated little better than the Alsatians were in OTL.

And France crossing the Rhine and intervening to "defend South German liberty" in 1866, while most serious Prussian troops are engaged in Moravia, would be far from the situation in 1870.

Edit extra. Also if Prussia takes saxony , then Bavarian Franconia, ansbach and Bayreuth will not be disconnected.

Only in a technical sense. Either you count the Thuringian states as Prussian in all but name, then Franconia is already connected with Prussia, or you don't. In the latter case, the small strip where Plauen connects with Hof really does not amount to much, strategically and traffic-wise.

 

[lucaswillen05]

I'm trying to figure out some implications from a counterfactual I've been thinking about. In July 1866, the Prussian army decisively defeated the Austrians (and Saxons) at Königgrätz in Bohemia, sealing the Austro-Prussian War and making a Prussian led Germany all but a certainty.

But you already knew that, didn't you?

Anyways, it's discussed in Bismarcks journals that there were members of the Prussian Army and government who wished to pursue a far more punishing peace on the Habsburgs, and to do so would involve pushing deeper into their Empire

I'm looking for a few things here:
-what changes would have to be made in the Prussian rulership to get an expanded war
-how long could the Austrians put up an effective resistance to Prussian invasion before capitulating. The demands are likely to be onerous, Bohemia-Moravia and maybe the Tirol to Bavaria as Napoleon did (or a set up like Alsace Lorraine 5 years later)
-will there be foreign intervention, the UK, France, Russia and Italy are all in play here.

After the immediate few years, I don't know how to speculate on the geopolitical situation without sketching out a TL (which is what I'm planning). But I think the German-Austrian alliance is dead in the water.

The Prussians did actually advance deep into Austria nd wee approaching Vienna, The most detailed account I have seen for this is Quintin Barry;s book, The Road t Konnigratz, ArchdukeAlbrecht[s army had concluded the Italian campaign and was being transferred north. Had there not been a ceasefire there would have been a big battle nea \Vienna. Whil Albrecht was far more capable than Benedek the stosstaktik remained doctrine and would ave ensured nother Austrian defeat like Konnigratz. Bismarck would hen have dictated his own terms in Vienna

 

[lucaswillen05]

Would the French have intervened before a battle between Albrecht and the main Prussian Field Army somewhere near Vienna,perhaps near Olmutz, And would they have wanted to wade into a war in the summer of 1866 just after the Austrians and Italians have been trounced. Sounds like a really bad idea to me. Worse if Albrecht has fought and lost as he almost certainly would have lost given the circumstances

In Southern Germany the Prussians had quite a considerablle force, a couple of corps I think but I would have to check those details which I am too tired to do just now

I doubt Britain even wanted to be involved in another continentl wa. And I don't see why Russia would want to get involved on Ausria's behalf inwhat was already a losr war. By the time Russia mobilises a large enough force Bism,arck will have defeaed Albrecht and dictatyed terms in Vienna. The Austrians were I think wise to quit when they did while they still had a major field army left

 

[Westphalian]

The minor skirmishing of the Langensalza and the River Main campaign is in no way equal to the efforts put forward by Saxony. All of Austria's other allies put forward token efforts at best. Winning a minor skirmish and then surrendering gets you annexed. Fighting a major battle with your ally means your ally supports you at the peace table.

That suggests a causality that simply was not there.
You can argue against the Hanoverian decision not to side with Prussia, that is fair. But there was not more they could do before the war started. What good is giving the command of your army to Austria when there is just a tiny chance to even make contact with an austrian corps - and the march south that led to Langensalza was the attempt to unite the forces with the South German ones. And Langensalza was such a Pyrrhic victory that surrendering was the only realistic thing to do. Looking at the logistics, it is almost a miracle they won at Langensalza at all.
No, Hanover could not have done so much more that Austria would have prevented its annexation diplomatically.

I am not getting anything mixed up. A Franco-Prussian war after a German victory against Austria is a near inevitability, given the personalities involved. Napoleon III is going to want his payment for his neutrality. Bismark is going to outfox him. So yeah, Bad, Wur, and Bav becoming part of the German Empire is pretty darn certain. Given a greater Prussian victory, do you think Napoleon isn't going to make the same mistakes he did OTL? Given a greater Prussian victory over Austria, do you think there is going to be LESS pressure on the south german states to join?

Since you mentioned "imperial" and "Empire" without even hinting why Prussia would transform into an empire without the important intermediate step of the NGC, you were at least imprecise.
And I really don't think you can have a super-expansionistic Prussia with Bismarck at the helm. It was King Wilhelm I. who wanted basically to punish Austreia more and take less from the other kings. If he manages to dictate the policy, things will look different anyway.

You really seem to overlook how important the geopolitical concept of the Mainlinie was. Prussia nonchalantly ignoring this and annexing some parts of Southern Germany and subduing the rest is *huge*, politically.

And a French Empire that has been openly disrespected by this MegaPrussia, but not military defeated, is not exactly a benefit for Prussia. Paris will start to look for allies in a "Contain-Prussia-League", and I don't think it will be too hard. No Prussian diplomat will be able to explain these annexations away as not disturbing the balance of Great Powers.