How likely was a Portuguese takeover of Japan, with a PoD before 1700?
Comparing this hypothetical scenario to OTL's British conquest of India, it doesn't seem too impossible to me. Like the Portuguese in Japan, the British were originally interested in commerce with India, before they got sucked in and ended up colonizing the place gradually, despite its advanced state systems.
Japan was also significantly influenced by Portuguese Christian missionaries IOTL, despite their persecution by the daimyos.
So, what would be necessary for the Portuguese to estabilish a stable foothold in Japan, as a base for future conquests?
Would the Iberian Union with Spain have to be prevented, for an argument?
 
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How likely was a Portuguese takeover of Japan, with a PoD before 1700?
Comparing this hypothetical scenario to OTL's British conquest of India, it doesn't seem too unlikely to me. Like the Portuguese in Japan, the British were originally interested in commerce with India, before they got sucked in and ended up colonizing the place gradually, despite its advanced state systems.
Japan was also significantly influenced by Portuguese Christian missionaries IOTL, despite their persecution by the daimyos.
So, what would be necessary for the Portuguese to estabilish a stable foothold in Japan, as a base for future conquests?
Would the Iberian Union with Spain have to be prevented, for an argument?

Knowing the subject quite a bit from the Portuguese side, it's extremely unlikely.
Portugal did not have the manpower or the organization necessary for this.
Their normal modus operandi is a quick attack, helped by local ethnies.
For example, Malacca taken with the help of Chinese merchants, or Calicut with Cochin. Japan on the other hand was not afraid to expel foreigners
 

Lusitania

Donor
We would of needed a power struggle to take place at time and Portuguese provide support to one side. They provide weapons and strike up alliance with one side.

Now if Portugal stays independent of Spain in 16th century and its Japanese ally continues to gain territory we could see a japan that is an ally or subject of Portugal while Portugal could have several ports.
 
Almost impossible, the Portuguese would have to be able to provide the manpower to defend their weak Christian daimyo allies, who were located in the Hizen province, but were no match for the Ryuzoji clan, a strong regional power within both Hizen Province and the island of Kyushu. Maybe they can subvert the Arima and Hirado clans, but advancing into Hizen would be a different story entirely.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Almost impossible, the Portuguese would have to be able to provide the manpower to defend their weak Christian daimyo allies, who were located in the Hizen province, but were no match for the Ryuzoji clan, a strong regional power within both Hizen Province and the island of Kyushu. Maybe they can subvert the Arima and Hirado clans, but advancing into Hizen would be a different story entirely.

No the only way would be to first ally with one or two clans, provide them with weapons in exchange for trade and allowing missionaries to be in the areas under their allies control.

If the Japanese allies able to expand and grow then Portuguese influence and Catholicism grows.
 
Well, in my opinion we would need:
  • A general Portuguese wank in Asia, which probably requires changing a bit the way early Portuguese India develops;
  • No Iberian Union;
  • Curbing the Dutch menace to Portuguese supremacy in the far East;
  • A longer and bloodier Sengoku period in Japan, with even more instability, as to give the Portuguese as many chances as possible to intervene in favour of certain clans in exchange for trading rights and free passage to missionaries.
I'm not sure if a full-blown annexation of the entire country à-la British Raj is possible. I wouldn't completely write it off, we need to remember that the British Raj was also very unlikely to materialize and it only happaned because things went almost ridiculously well for the British. However, it is hard, and I can't even begin to imagine what kind of circunstances could lead to that without starting to laugh my ass off. Maybe only OTL has the right to reach that level of absurdity...

Anyway, I could see a Catholic Daimyo whose family has intermarried with the Portuguese becoming Shogun. While that doesn't make for a Portuguese Japan in it's strictest sense, it can make for a heavily Portuguese influenced Japan, which would certainly be very interesting to imagine from a cultural point of view.

The Portuguese could also easily gain enclaves in the Japanese islands. IOTL Nagasaki was almost that, until the local daimyo decided to turn it into a colony of the Jesuit order instead. Which reminds me... we probably need to keep Portuguese dominance over Jesuit missions to the Far East. Originally, this was the case, but Spanish and Italian missionaries started to become more common as time went by IOTL. This contributed to the end of Portuguese primacy in terms of European dealings with Japan.

Another things that may help is a Portuguese presence in Taiwan.
 
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How likely was a Portuguese takeover of Japan, with a PoD before 1700?
Comparing this hypothetical scenario to OTL's British conquest of India, it doesn't seem too impossible to me. Like the Portuguese in Japan, the British were originally interested in commerce with India, before they got sucked in and ended up colonizing the place gradually, despite its advanced state systems.
Japan was also significantly influenced by Portuguese Christian missionaries IOTL, despite their persecution by the daimyos.
So, what would be necessary for the Portuguese to estabilish a stable foothold in Japan, as a base for future conquests?
Would the Iberian Union with Spain have to be prevented, for an argument?
Out right conquest? It's not ASB as some would argue, but it would probably require them to roll nothing but 6s while the rest of the world roles nothing but 1s and 2s for a century straight.

Temporarily having Japan as a de facto part of the Portuguese empire? Oda Nobunaga completes the unification of Japan, he was tolerant of Catholic missionaries (so too were many of his subordinates and allies), and even accepted an Afro-Portugese slave as a retainer. Had he succeeded, a strong Sino-Lusophone partnership seems to be the likely outcome, though Portugal likely wouldn't be able to count itself as the senior partner for too long.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Out right conquest? It's not ASB as some would argue, but it would probably require them to roll nothing but 6s while the rest of the world roles nothing but 1s and 2s for a century straight.

Temporarily having Japan as a de facto part of the Portuguese empire? Oda Nobunaga completes the unification of Japan, he was tolerant of Catholic missionaries (so too were many of his subordinates and allies), and even accepted an Afro-Portugese slave as a retainer. Had he succeeded, a strong Sino-Lusophone partnership seems to be the likely outcome, though Portugal likely wouldn't be able to count itself as the senior partner for too long.

Yes it would work and as for Portuguese with control of Taiwan, malacca and spice islands with control of Siri Lanka and west coast of Índia it would provide Portuguese with enough of strong base to be top dog in Far East.
 
No the only way would be to first ally with one or two clans, provide them with weapons in exchange for trade and allowing missionaries to be in the areas under their allies control.

If the Japanese allies able to expand and grow then Portuguese influence and Catholicism grows.

They Portuguese had allies both in the Matsura and Arima Clans, in fact, one of the Arima's vassals the Omura allowed for the construction of what would be Nagasaki. However, there were no Christian daimyo or ones that allowed Christianity that were either strong enough to make a difference but not too strong to be uncontrollable, or they only looked strong. the Hirado and Arima were quite weak and even rivals with one another, and the Otomo and Ouchi were plagued by internal problems like strong autonomous vassals or dissident factions respectively. The problem the Portuguese would face is that their toleration would rely on the feudal and more importantly his retainers supporting him, so there is very little they can do.

Out right conquest? It's not ASB as some would argue, but it would probably require them to roll nothing but 6s while the rest of the world roles nothing but 1s and 2s for a century straight.

Temporarily having Japan as a de facto part of the Portuguese empire? Oda Nobunaga completes the unification of Japan, he was tolerant of Catholic missionaries (so too were many of his subordinates and allies), and even accepted an Afro-Portugese slave as a retainer. Had he succeeded, a strong Sino-Lusophone partnership seems to be the likely outcome, though Portugal likely wouldn't be able to count itself as the senior partner for too long.

The thing is Nobunaga's acceptance of Christianity was political, Nobunaga was an atheist, and did not believe in spirits or gods. If the Christian missionaries tried even a quarter of what some of the established Buddhist monasteries did (ie have their own formidable armies and fortified temples and generally be a pain in Nobunaga's backside) they would be thrown out. Beside's Nobunaga might tolerate them, but Nobunaga did not care to be a figurehead or take orders from them if he was not going to accept that in his native land he was not going to accept that from foreigners. They served to help in Nobunaga's power in their own small way but that was it. Yasuke/Yaosuke is more a curiosity that fits Nobunaga's eccentric personality, Yasuke hardly lasted a year in Nobunaga's service because Nobunaga was soon killed.

Outright conquest would have to have a Portuguese person play state-backed daimyo, and somehow win out, which if we are starting from Hizen Province is a tall order. However, that means dealing with the Japanese feudal system, and a land with plenty of mountains until you reach the Kanto plains, that's why I'd argue outright conquest would require a lot of troops. The thumbnail below basically shows just were in Hizen Province the Portuguese had influence, which was not a whole lot.
Por-Japan.png
 
The thing is Nobunaga's acceptance of Christianity was political, Nobunaga was an atheist, and did not believe in spirits or gods. If the Christian missionaries tried even a quarter of what some of the established Buddhist monasteries did (ie have their own formidable armies and fortified temples and generally be a pain in Nobunaga's backside) they would be thrown out. Beside's Nobunaga might tolerate them, but Nobunaga did not care to be a figurehead or take orders from them if he was not going to accept that in his native land he was not going to accept that from foreigners. They served to help in Nobunaga's power in their own small way but that was it. Yasuke/Yaosuke is more a curiosity that fits Nobunaga's eccentric personality, Yasuke hardly lasted a year in Nobunaga's service because Nobunaga was soon killed.
Obviously he wouldn't be taking direct orders from Lisbon, but the fact would remain that the Portuguese would have some non-neglegable degree of influence in his court, where as he would have none over the King of Portugal, meeting what I'd consider to be the bare minimum requirements for "temporarily having Japan as a de facto part of the Portuguese empire".

Outright conquest would have to have a Portuguese person play state-backed daimyo, and somehow win out, which if we are starting from Hizen Province is a tall order. However, that means dealing with the Japanese feudal system, and a land with plenty of mountains until you reach the Kanto plains, that's why I'd argue outright conquest would require a lot of troops. The thumbnail below basically shows just were in Hizen Province the Portuguese had influence, which was not a whole lot.
View attachment 396770
If their attempt to establish a lasting monopoly on Indian Ocean trade succeeded they'd probably have the resources, funds, and logistics to manage it. Which is what I meant when I said rolling nothing but 6s for a century.
 
Portugal can get bits a Japan, all of Japan is less likely.
-They can get Ryukyus as a trading outpost by congolizing it (making it a vassal and converting them through Jesuits).
-They can negociate with Japan to get some city as trading place, they did OTL.
-They can help use one of the many civil wars to get one of the islands, if they are really lucky and if they have allies. Probably Shikoku or Kyushu. But this last idea is really through luck, fight and negociation.
 
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