PC: Polish War (in lieu of ARW or FR)

^^That gives me another thought -- could civil war break in the Netherlands round this time, where Prussia (w Britain as ally) backs the Staltholder, leading France and Spain to back the republicans?
Hmmm, the first part yes. It basicly already happened. There was sort of a civil war, or at least a power struggle. The stadholder was losing and Prussia attacked the Netherlands returning power to the stadholder. The problem is that I can't see France or Spain getting involved.

Also, if there is one thing that can unify a country is an invasion of a hostile power that wants to annex half of the country. France wants its "natural border", which runs right through the Netherlands. Something most Dutch would be aware of and any French help will probably cost the Dutch half their country, something I doubt most would accept (although I must admit some would).
 
I was thinking more along the lines of this happening where France and Prussia are already at war...

I think you are onto something here. As much as it would be in Great Britain's long term interests to protect its Prussian ally, I think they would still be unwilling to get involved. Even at the height of the Seven Year's War GB did no more than raise its subsidies and conduct a few amphibious operations against France when most of Prussia was occupied by foreign powers and Frederick the Great was at his most desperate. Rather than intervene they preferred to subsidize Prussia, and often urged them to accept less favorable terms rather than continue to fight.

I don't think it would be that clear to British politicians around 1790 that Prussia could not handle itself against France and Austria with the support of Russia. Prussia had fended off those two countries forces during the Seven Years' war with Russia on their side. Prussia had only grown stronger (though perhaps more than a bit complacent) while neither France nor Austria was appreciably stronger in 1791 than in 1754. Austria may have actually been relatively weaker, if their performance in the Austro-Turkish War of 1787-91 was any indication.

Russia would probably be more than a match for Austria in the East. 1791 is still the age of Suvorov. That man was the probably the greatest general ever to be born in Russia. He enjoyed the confidence of the Empress Catherine, so he would probably be given everything he needed to succeed. And at that the head of a large army (any army for that matter) he was never defeated in his lifetime. He would march through Poland, defeating everything in his wake, take Cracow, and probably invade Hapsburg Transylvania and Hungary, if not Austria itself. The Russian Army would be more likely to cross the Rhine into France than the Austrian Army would be to even make it into Ukraine.

Even if Prussia was completely defeated, they would not face elimination. At the worst, they would be forced to return Silesia to Austria, and perhaps surrender some bits of Poland that they had taken in the Partition back to Poland. That is all. The King of Prussia would still remain an Elector, the Margrivate of Brandenburg would probably not be touched. Even the scoundrel Max Emmanuel was given back his HRE domains after the War of Spanish Succession ended.

My point is that British policymakers would feel little pressure to intervene in favor of Prussia. The Netherlands would be a completely different matter. GB viewed control of the channel as a matter of national survival. Unlike a potential upset in the balance of power in Europe, this would force GB to take immediate action. However grudgingly, armies would be raised and sent to the Low Countries, as they had been in the days of Marlborough and Cumberland.

Even then, I am unsure that GB would declare war on Austria, unless they decided to declare war first for some insane reason. This would be for the simple reason that they would be nothing to be gained for GB by winning victories against them in the Austrian Netherlands.
 
Even then, I am unsure that GB would declare war on Austria, unless they decided to declare war first for some insane reason. This would be for the simple reason that they would be nothing to be gained for GB by winning victories against them in the Austrian Netherlands.

What if Austria was also on board for checking Prussia by backing the Netherlands republicans, and lent support vis a vis the Austrian lowlands? That would make escalation into war with Britain the more likely, wouldn't it?

In addition to this, I still say Spain (and France) are going to want to take this opportunity to settle scores with the UK (particularly in the Western Hemisphere), likely leading to a formal alliance with Austria (and quite possibly Poland). After all, that's more or less what they did in the ARW -- found their most powerful adversary in a war, figured they could get something while they were distracted.

To keep the ball rolling -- from the sound of it, Antipater, you think the war's likely to go well for Russia and bad for Poland, that right? I'd like to think that Poland and her self-interested defenders have a good shot at winning this war as described, though I'll admit that's just a preference right now. Overall, I'm wondering how you guys think this war would go for the respective alliances.
 
I think there's something missing here; the ARW and the FRWs were radical revolutionary republics in their time. The idea of total* equality for all of nation's citizens, hell really the idea of a 'nation-state' and nationalism didn't get off the ground until both the ARW and FRWs, and that's what scared the pants off the European monarchs of the time.

How would a Polish War after the May 3 Constitution lead to the same type of ideological conflict?

While the May 3 Constitution certainly was progressive for its time, it by no definition was revolutionary or even vaguely republican. In truth the driving force for the new constitution was less a push for democracy and more simply an administrative and bureaucratic reform of the country in order to get its feet under it once more. Prussia, Russia, and to a lesser extent Austria weren't worried about radical Polish revolutionaries, they were worried about a strong Polish state on their borders once more.

Comparing a Polish War to the French Revolutionary Wars wouldn't be the same unless the Poles became very radicalized very quickly; and I'm not sure we have the conditions for that as of right now in the scenario.

Thoughts JFP?

* Let's ignore the slavery issue for the moment.
 
Thoughts JFP?

My chief response -- this conflict by no means needs to become, let alone start out as, ideological. We all know what motivated the invasion OTL and starts the chain of events leading to war TTL alike is Russia does not like the idea that Poland is reforming itself without her permission.

Could a prolonged war radicalize the Polish state? I don't know, but it seems likely where liberalism is concerned that this war isn't near enough to make up for a failed ARW and delayed/diluted French Revolution. That said, I would like it if there was at least a plausible way the reformed Polish republic could survive long term TTL...
 
Originally posted by wolf_brother
While the May 3 Constitution certainly was progressive for its time, it by no definition was revolutionary or even vaguely republican. In truth the driving force for the new constitution was less a push for democracy and more simply an administrative and bureaucratic reform of the country in order to get its feet under it once more. Prussia, Russia, and to a lesser extent Austria weren't worried about radical Polish revolutionaries, they were worried about a strong Polish state on their borders once more.
Yes and no. The French Revolution made all European monarchs trembling, especially absolutist monarchs who honestly believed their power is sanctioned by God. So they reacted very nervously when a country passed a constitution clearly defining (so, to some degreee limiting) royal prerogatives. The fact that Polish constitution actually somewhat strengthen king's power was a detail. What counted was that the people had a saying in the way the country was to be ruled - again. Monarchs of Austria, Prussia and to some degree Russia worried their subjects might have a similar idea.
Before the constitution Poland hoped for an alliance with Prussia against Russia. However, Prussia, already troubled with the French Revolution saw Polish reforms as a beginning of another revolution.
It has to be said, though, that the fact that Poland was slowly getting her strength back was also a very important factor, especially in Russian policy.
 
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