PC: Napoleon III, Emperor of China

[Cicero the Younger]

Suppose at some point during his reign, Napoleon III had decided he wanted China to become a colony of France just as India had become a colony of Britain.* China was going through a low period at the time, and France was second only to Britain as an international Great Power. Still, China is a big nation, with a lot of people, and a stronger history of unity than India had, so conquering it wouldn't be a stroll in the park for anyone. But assuming he focuses as much of his resources as he can afford on the project, is it possible for France to conquer China during the reign of Napoleon III, or at least at some point in the pre-WWI era? (The Second Empire can be extended if need be. Perhaps the Franco-Prussian War is avoided?)

*I had initially thought he might be inspired by Queen Victoria's having been named Empress of India and deciding he wanted to be Emperor of China. But a little preliminary research for the question reveals he was already dead by the time she gained that title, so that would have been too late for a POD.

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

The issues are with what you said yourself: China was always more unified than India. Unless China completely collapses, I don't think it can be totally conquered by anyone. Even then it wouldn't be, as you put it, a walk in the park.

See China get fractured into numerous states (Uguiri (or however you spell it) state in Sinkiang, Tibet, Mongolia, maybe Manchuria and the south splitting into numerous states. Maybe Nappy can conquer the state that calls itself the Empire of China.

Not really my area of expertise, but I like the idea so here's what I can think of.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

He could get a good start by pumping up France's role in the Second Opium War and Taiping Rebellion; besides Britain, France was the only foreign power really getting that heavily involved in these conflicts.

 

[Typo]

Why would Britain be ok with France conquering China?

 

[Mikestone8]

Iirc, there was a crisis between France and China when two French missionaries were murdered there.

Fortunately for China, the year happened to be 1870, and France was distracted by an enemy nearer home, before having a chance to respond. So change that - -

 

[I Blame Communism]

China was a pre-existing state, very big, more organised and coherent than is usually imagined in retrospect. The French had a bit of work when they fought China for Annam and Tonkin. Fighting China for China would inevitably trap them in a horrible quagmire ala Japan.

It was much more profitable to maintain a weak Chinese government that had to accept unlimited informal imperialism, and the French, like all the imperial powers, knew this very well.

 

[Rediv]

Iirc, there was a crisis between France and China when two French missionaries were murdered there.

Fortunately for China, the year happened to be 1870, and France was distracted by an enemy nearer home, before having a chance to respond. So change that - -

It was much more profitable to maintain a weak Chinese government that had to accept unlimited informal imperialism, and the French, like all the imperial powers, knew this very well.

So then, suppose France avoids fighting Germany and instead gets aggressive towards China (thereby allowing the French to get the satisfaction of the military adventure they were clamoring for), and retaliates against China in the name of protecting its European inhabitants. They give China an ultimatum similar to Japan's "Twenty-one Demands" and enforce it with an expeditionary force marching on Beijing. And who knows, maybe in addition to winning the right to boss around the emperor, they'll even get some land concessions out of it, and we'd have a French equivalent to Hong Kong or Macau.

 

[Typo]

Why would Britain be ok with this?

For that matter, why would the European powers who have interest in China in general be ok with the French trying something like this?

 

[Rediv]

Why would Britain be ok with this?

For that matter, why would the European powers who have interest in China in general be ok with the French trying something like this?

Good question. I guess I should have taken that into consideration.

So do you think they would have come to China's defense to stop the French intrusion, or would they have jumped on the bandwagon and tried to get more concessions from the Chinese, and even things out that way?

 

[Hendryk]

And who knows, maybe in addition to winning the right to boss around the emperor, they'll even get some land concessions out of it, and we'd have a French equivalent to Hong Kong or Macau.

France did get its own version of Hong Kong or Macau, though it was some time later, in 1898. It was the territory of Guangzhouwan, on the coast of Guangdong, but nothing much was done with it. Of course, there was also the French Concession in Shanghai, and an informal but sizeable presence in Yunnan, thanks to its being just over the border from Indochina.

 

[Cicero the Younger]

Why would Britain be ok with this?

For that matter, why would the European powers who have interest in China in general be ok with the French trying something like this?

So what would Britain do about it? Go to war with France? Rush to expand their own holdings in China and try to get a bigger piece than the French get? Hold an international conference and try to get the other great powers to agree that China is off limits?

 

[Susano]

So what would Britain do about it? Go to war with France? Rush to expand their own holdings in China and try to get a bigger piece than the French get? Hold an international conference and try to get the other great powers to agree that China is off limits?

Well, the latter is more or less what happened IOTL... Britain and also the USA were interested in Chinas existence as a (weak) state and always managed to get the other powers in line for that. France simply would not be able to act uniliterally against the wishes of the other powers.

 

[Cicero the Younger]

Well, the latter is more or less what happened IOTL... Britain and also the USA were interested in Chinas existence as a (weak) state and always managed to get the other powers in line for that. France simply would not be able to act uniliterally against the wishes of the other powers.

Yes, but I have to ask, did this agreement have any effect when Japan started grabbing pieces of China in the 1890s and afterward? Aside from leaving China weak and vulnerable, I mean? (One feels that a China occupied and administered, India-style, by an existing Great Power would have been a lot harder for Japan to penetrate, if they would even still dare to try.) Japan acted pretty unilaterally in China; did the Great Powers do anything about it then? And if they didn't do anything against Japan, which was gathering strength at this time but not yet too strong to stop, then would they have actually done anything tangible if France, one of the strongest powers, had chosen to ignore the agreement?

For that matter, when was the agreement made? Was there a time before it happened when Napoleon III could have made a move, annoying but not yet betraying the other Powers?

 

[Susano]

Yes, but I have to ask, did this agreement have any effect when Japan started grabbing pieces of China in the 1890s and afterward?

Err, Japan didnt. Not before WW1, anyways, and during that the whole order of the Great Powers broke down, anyways. What Japan did was to occupy certain parts of the country and have them be under their influence - and France, Germany and the UK did the same. It only started to really act unilaterally after WW1.

For that matter, when was the agreement made? Was there a time before it happened when Napoleon III could have made a move, annoying but not yet betraying the other Powers?

I may be wrong, but I dont think there ever was a formal agreement - just practical policy by those powers who wished to keep China "open". So France would have to convince those powers otherwise, diplomatically. The only opportunity I can see for France to influence the UK in such a major way would maybe be during the Crimean War, and even that might be doubtful...