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So, building off this thread, I wanted to run this situation by you guys:
  • Either by the general international situation (outside Asia) being different or with a late 1937 PoD...
  • Japan holds off on any offenses immediately after retaking Shanghai.
  • Chiang uses this time to build his defenses (around Nanking, at Wuhan, etc), so that when violence does break out again, Japanese forces do less well than OTL's 1938, likely meaning Wuhan is held.
  • At this point, Chiang has done well enough that he can play for more time with negotiations.
  • In January 1938 OTL, Japan (haphazardly) announced that the goal of the war was the "eradication" of Chiang's government in China. Because they still hold out some hope around this time for a negotiation TTL, this escalation of war goals does not happen, at least not yet.
  • Meanwhile, as OTL, the escalation with China precipitated a breakdown in trade relations with the US and other countries (starting 1938).
  • From there...
    • If the early stages of said escalation aren't "success" followed by a year of pyrrhic victories, but a pyrrhic victory followed by defeat, might Japan be more disposed toward negotiation or slower escalation, to counter further isolation?
    • OTOH, this de-escalation may not last, from combined factors of the Chinese expecting another attack, to the Japanese realizing the peace can't hold, to the army generals still slipping from their control.
    • Then again, the generals on the ground might be slower to act unilaterally if their initial efforts are less successful than OTL, I think.
  • All told, after failing to take Wuhan, I expect at the least that going into 1939, Japanese leaders would ditch any notions any of them might have had of exterminating the KMT state, and shift toward an embargo war of isolation.
  • Overall, I'd imagine the goal would be to force Chiang to the negotiating table, and accept some "reasonable" concessions (eg accepting the existence of Manchuko).
  • Whether this more modest war has a snowball's chance in hell of working out, now that's another matter...
So what do you guys think?
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