PC: More Limited 2nd Sino-Japanese War

So, building off this thread, I wanted to run this situation by you guys:
  • Either by the general international situation (outside Asia) being different or with a late 1937 PoD...
  • Japan holds off on any offenses immediately after retaking Shanghai.
  • Chiang uses this time to build his defenses (around Nanking, at Wuhan, etc), so that when violence does break out again, Japanese forces do less well than OTL's 1938, likely meaning Wuhan is held.
  • At this point, Chiang has done well enough that he can play for more time with negotiations.
  • In January 1938 OTL, Japan (haphazardly) announced that the goal of the war was the "eradication" of Chiang's government in China. Because they still hold out some hope around this time for a negotiation TTL, this escalation of war goals does not happen, at least not yet.
  • Meanwhile, as OTL, the escalation with China precipitated a breakdown in trade relations with the US and other countries (starting 1938).
  • From there...
    • If the early stages of said escalation aren't "success" followed by a year of pyrrhic victories, but a pyrrhic victory followed by defeat, might Japan be more disposed toward negotiation or slower escalation, to counter further isolation?
    • OTOH, this de-escalation may not last, from combined factors of the Chinese expecting another attack, to the Japanese realizing the peace can't hold, to the army generals still slipping from their control.
    • Then again, the generals on the ground might be slower to act unilaterally if their initial efforts are less successful than OTL, I think.
  • All told, after failing to take Wuhan, I expect at the least that going into 1939, Japanese leaders would ditch any notions any of them might have had of exterminating the KMT state, and shift toward an embargo war of isolation.
  • Overall, I'd imagine the goal would be to force Chiang to the negotiating table, and accept some "reasonable" concessions (eg accepting the existence of Manchuko).
  • Whether this more modest war has a snowball's chance in hell of working out, now that's another matter...
So what do you guys think?
 
Chiang's gonna need more time to build sufficient defences because those Chinese soldiers aren't really thinking about the war, they're thinking about saving their necks. Note that a large part of the Rape in Nanking occurred to find the ex-soldiers who joined the horde fleeing the city, either by checking their necks(neckstraps) or shoulders(backpack).
 
First, let me say that my knowledge of the 2nd Sino-Japanese War and Asia in general is cursory and certainly not as in-depth as other members, but I'll give it a shot.

In my opinion, it is a little difficult to make the war limited because Japan knew that time was not on its side. Throughout the 1930s, the KMT had been consolidating its position and weakening its warlord rivals. It had lots of problems, no doubt, but the longer Japan waited, the stronger the KMT became, and the longer the odds grew. Think of it as sort of analogous to the situation between Germany and Russia in 1914. Germany knew that Russia was still backward, but Russia's post-1905 reforms were beginning to show results and the Germans knew their time was limited. For Japan to limit the war, it would have to consciously decide to put its ambitions to be the dominant power in Asia on hold.
 
OK, so how much time are we talking about? How long do the incursions need to be delayed for the Nationalists need to turn Nanjing into a pyrrhic victory for Japan, and Wuhan into a stalemate/defeat?

That'd be the million-dollar question, really, for both us on this thread and Chiang's generals scrambling for a defence plan. Here's what I found:
In a press release to foreign reporters, Tang Shengzhi announced the city would not surrender and would fight to the death. Tang gathered about 100,000 soldiers, largely untrained, including Chinese troops who had participated in the Battle of Shanghai. To prevent civilians from fleeing the city, he ordered troops to guard the port, as instructed by Chiang Kai-shek. The defense force blocked roads, destroyed boats, and burnt nearby villages, preventing widespread evacuation.

The Chinese government left for relocation on December 1, and the president left on December 7, leaving the fate of Nanking to an International Committee led by John Rabe.

The defense plan fell apart quickly. Those defending the city encountered Chinese troops fleeing from previous defeats such as the Battle of Shanghai, running from the advancing Japanese army. This did nothing to help the morale of the defenders, many of whom were killed during the defense of the city and subsequent Japanese occupation.
My guess? No time would really be enough for the Chinese to make a defensive line around Nanking, and to have the Japanese wait so long would be bordering on ASB.
 
That'd be the million-dollar question, really, for both us on this thread and Chiang's generals scrambling for a defence plan...

My guess? No time would really be enough for the Chinese to make a defensive line around Nanking...
Hm, it sounds like you don't think the Nationalists could plausibly achieve the kind of military success (holding Wuhan, etc) needed for my scenario in general, at least with a PoD this late.

Well, asked and answered.
 
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