You would need an earlier POD. Say the Mexican independence insurgency begins in December of 1799 with a successful Conspiracy of the Machetes, and gains it by 1808. This would be a huge blow for Spain, and would likely trigger earlier insurgencies in South America as well. By the time Spain gets entangled in the whole Napoleonic affair, it might not be in any position to keep a hold on to Cuba.
The US would probably snatch Florida in the process, and if Mexico acts smartly work with the US to divide Louisiana Territory, in the best interest of both nations, which by this point would technically be Mexican. Plus if Mexico and the US establish their borders this early on, (with Mexico granting the US Louisiana) Mexico would have a legitimate claim on Texas and Cuba recognized by the other local power.