PC: LaFayette Saves the French Revolution

(Initially tried this out on this thread, but I had thought of it awhile ago)

Let's say in 1791 the French Royal family are still caught in making an escape attempt, but the matter is handled far more quietly (let's provisionally say, by troops loyal to LaFayette); Marie Antoinette is separated from the king, and is herself allowed to quietly flee to Austria. As I see it, this would have the butterfly effects of:

a) not having demonstrations that lead to the Massacre of the Champ de Mars, so that LaFayette is still very popular, and poised to take an active role in a future government

b) delaying the Declaration by a couple of years, at least, meaning that when the National Convention convenes, the country is still at peace; this would make it more likely that they perform the task assigned them, which was to draw up a Constitution

It seems you combine (a) and (b), you'd have new elections (with the intention of making them regular); and a popular military figure (with ties to the United States and George Washington). Assume the Constitution drawn up adopts a Presidential system, LaFayette could well be the first.

EDIT ADD: Does this sound plausible? If yes, could the First French Republic survive?
 
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Well, you don't have the blood letting that you had in OTL French Revolution and you don't have the Napoleonic Wars. Sounds like a better 19th century.
 
First, wanted to apologize for not actually asking a question in the first post earlier; it has some now :eek:

Well, you don't have the blood letting that you had in OTL French Revolution and you don't have the Napoleonic Wars. Sounds like a better 19th century.

That is interesting -- though a really interesting thought I had on this was what happens to conservative thought if Burke looks like a Chicken Little instead of a Cassandra?
 
I would say that it is plausible, but it might work a bit better with a slightly earlier PoD. By the time Louis tried to make a run for it the situation in France was already quite dangerous for the royal family. By that point Louis XVI was sure he could never work with the Revolution, and most of the left-wing revolutionaries felt the same about him. It bears mentioning that the French government did try to keep word of the King's flight from getting out OTL, but the news leaked out pretty quickly.

Keep the sans-culottes from being allowed to indulge their violent bloodlust and Lafayette will have a much easier time with solidifying a constitutional monarchy. Having Marie-Antoinette die in childbirth or find some way to not be hated by almost everyone in France would help a lot too; a lot of the hostility towards the monarchy centered on her.
 
Read my TL, I think I do a plausible job of it. Lafayette returns and is much more influential on Louis. Also b/c my POD is 1782 there are no Massacres.
 
John Fredrick Parker said:
Let's say in 1791 the French Royal family are still caught in making an escape attempt, but the matter is handled far more quietly (let's provisionally say, by troops loyal to LaFayette); Marie Antoinette is separated from the king, and is herself allowed to quietly flee to Austria. As I see it, this would have the butterfly effects of:

So, basically, you want her to leave without her husband and her children?
I don't think Marie Antoinette would agree on that deal, even if Louis XVI tried to convinced her : she would be far too afraid to let her children and her husband alone in this mess.

Besides, letting her go is not a good idea for the Revolutionnaires : if Marie Antoinette escapes to Austria, she will ask her brother Francis II, Holy Roman Emperor and Archduke of Austria, to attack France so that her husband and children are liberated from the French Revolutionnaries. You'll just get the coalition against France a little earlier than OTL and maybe with more troops if Marie Antoinette is persuasive.

John Fredrick Parker said:
EDIT ADD: Does this sound plausible? If yes, could the First French Republic survive?

If Louis XVI's escape to Varennes is not made public or kept in secrecy, I'm not sure the French Republic would be proclaimed... To me, it seems more plausible that a constitutionnal monarchy is kept but that Louis XVI will lose most of his political powers... He would become like the British Kings who have practically no political power.

Chengar Qordath said:
Having Marie-Antoinette die in childbirth or find some way to not be hated by almost everyone in France would help a lot too; a lot of the hostility towards the monarchy centered on her.

Before the failed escape to Varennes, Louis XVI and his family were quite popular. The revolutionnary government made sure that popularity got down after Varennes. If Varennes is kept secret, the royal family's popularity will not go down.
 
Read my TL, I think I do a plausible job of it. Lafayette returns and is much more influential on Louis.

I do read your TL (sorry I never comment on it -- never have anything original to say :eek:), and it's certainly enthralling... a little darker (for France) than what I had in mind, though.

I would say that it is plausible, but it might work a bit better with a slightly earlier PoD. By the time Louis tried to make a run for it the situation in France was already quite dangerous for the royal family. By that point Louis XVI was sure he could never work with the Revolution, and most of the left-wing revolutionaries felt the same about him.

I'm open, so long as it comes after July 1790 (the first year of the revolution should happen AOTL) and leads to the adaptation of a legislature with universal male suffrage.

If Louis XVI's escape to Varennes is not made public or kept in secrecy, I'm not sure the French Republic would be proclaimed... To me, it seems more plausible that a constitutionnal monarchy is kept but that Louis XVI will lose most of his political powers... He would become like the British Kings who have practically no political power.

Fair enough -- since the monarchy is effectively curbed in this scenario, I would consider it the equivalent of establishing a republic.
 
Might it be better if the flight to Varennes succeeded?

The Comte de Provence (later Louis XVIII) escaped at the same time, whilst Artois (Charles X) and his sons had been abroad since 1789. So all the senior branch of the Royal Family is now in exile. In this situation, the Duc d'Orleans ("Philippe Egalite") can claim the Regency, and probably the throne as well before too long. So you have a constitutional monarchy under another King - a French equivalent of 1688. Of course, Egalite may not be as smart as William III. The senior Bourbons are destined to wander the world for the foreseeable future, like the Stuarts.
 
and a popular military figure (with ties to the United States and George Washington

I don't think anyone in Europe would give a damn about ties with that bunch of oversea colonists and that George whatever-his-name.
Sure, some sympahies in a benevolent paternalistic sense, but no more than that.
Resonance of Lafayette's adventure in america would be rather focused on the fact that he embarked on an anti-english adventure in a faraway half-savage continent
 
Might it be better if the flight to Varennes succeeded?

The Comte de Provence (later Louis XVIII) escaped at the same time, whilst Artois (Charles X) and his sons had been abroad since 1789. So all the senior branch of the Royal Family is now in exile. In this situation, the Duc d'Orleans ("Philippe Egalite") can claim the Regency, and probably the throne as well before too long. So you have a constitutional monarchy under another King - a French equivalent of 1688. Of course, Egalite may not be as smart as William III. The senior Bourbons are destined to wander the world for the foreseeable future, like the Stuarts.

I think you might be on to something. This French Rev. can't be Lafayette centered unless he wins the French Mayoral election and stays head of the National Guard. Than he is in a power vis a vis all the other players.

I think Mike is probably right. although having an Artois led Regency wouldn't be to bad. As far as Bourbon reactionaries go he wasn't like Louis XVIII. IIRC, he accepted his position after Louis XVIII's death with some reluctance and was very pro parliament.Admittedly I know nothing of Phillipe D'Orleans so I can't comment on him but a Flight to Varennes may be best.

There is the alternative, Louis listens to Necker and institutes the reforms he insists upon. Frees up internal commerce and puts the royal house on a budget. Those two things would most likely alleviate some of the short and long term agitation with the Bourbons. Therefore we have a Con. Monarchy with which the people are mostly satisfied with and provided Louis is sensible and Necker is influential and Lafayette is still one of the key moderate Aristocrats in the National Assembly than we could possibly see a Prime Minister Lafayette.
 
Let me add a question to the mix: if France becomes a Constitutional Monarchy instead of a Republic, what does that do for the chances of some of the more radical legislative initiatives, like changes to family law and such?
 
Let me add a question to the mix: if France becomes a Constitutional Monarchy instead of a Republic, what does that do for the chances of some of the more radical legislative initiatives, like changes to family law and such?

Depends on which is more powerful Constitution or Monarchy, which depends upon how the early parts of the Rev goes. I bet that the Monarchy would retain ultimate veto power so I think that most of the radicalism is pushed to the side and once a good moderate structure is in place than I think the Jacobins (or whatever) contained to some backbench seats.
 
Depends on which is more powerful Constitution or Monarchy, which depends upon how the early parts of the Rev goes.

Well, at the moment, I'm leaning toward Louis fleeing to Austria*, and Phillipe being given the position; where do you think that would likely leave the monarchy's power?

*or possibly being diverted there; AIUI, most historians today think the king was trying to hook up with a royalist army
 
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