Here's a rough TL I've got; I'm hoping to get some feedback, in terms of plausibility
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June 1846 -- An American whaling vessel, the
USS Lagoda, either has no troubles, or is lost with no survivors [
either way, this does not happen]
[
Thus, Commodore Perry is never sent to Japan]
Tensions grow between Japanese and Russian settlers in places like Sakharin [
similar to OTL]
In Russo-Japanese War (1868-71), Russia conquers Hokkaido; to secure a military alliance, Japan gives the Dutch much better trading status, even, in desperation, allowing soldiers based in Indonesia onto Honshu to fight off a Russian invasion; Hokkaido goes to Russia, while the rest of Japan falls under the Dutch Sphere of Influence
Later in the 19th Century, the Shogunate leads a rebellion against the Dutch occupation, which is put down; the Shogun is replaced by an appointed governor
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Now, an obvious question here is, are the Dutch powerful enough as late as the mid 19th Century to pull this off? If not, is there a plausible other power that could fill their place, keeping the same events?
I look forward to your feedback.