PC Irish population of 30 million in 2000

WILDGEESE

Gone Fishin'
In 1800, the population of the Isle of Ireland itself was 5.2 million and the rest of the UK was 10.8 million rising to just under 38 million in 1900 and 56 million in 1980.

What if there was no Irish famine, Irish emigration to North America was at UK levels and Irish population growth was also at UK levels?

Could the population of Ireland increase to around 30 million by 1980?

Could the landmass of Ireland support this population?

Cheers filers.
 
In 1800, the population of the Isle of Ireland itself was 5.2 million and the rest of the UK was 10.8 million rising to just under 38 million in 1900 and 56 million in 1980.

What if there was no Irish famine, Irish emigration to North America was at UK levels and Irish population growth was also at UK levels?

Could the population of Ireland increase to around 30 million by 1980?

Could the landmass of Ireland support this population?

Cheers filers.
I doubt it, 15-20 million at best.
 
Can't be done without much, much bigger changes. Firstly, the UK has far more agricultural potential than Ireland does, due to the fertile ground in the south of England. Secondly, the UK also had substantial trade and industry, which allowed them to pay for food imports. Ireland, on the other hand, has had stunted industrial development until after the 1970s. Even with more industry, they are unlikely to do much better than Scotland in population growth terms.
 
Can't be done without much, much bigger changes. Firstly, the UK has far more agricultural potential than Ireland does, due to the fertile ground in the south of England. Secondly, the UK also had substantial trade and industry, which allowed them to pay for food imports. Ireland, on the other hand, has had stunted industrial development until after the 1970s. Even with more industry, they are unlikely to do much better than Scotland in population growth terms.

While I think 30 million is a high simply for the size of Ireland I think 15-20 million would be reasonably attainable. In 1840 the population was 8 million while still exporting enough grain to feed the entire population. Better policies regarding Ireland from London would easily allow for a doubling of population in 150 years.
 
You would need a POD long before 1800.

You'd need Ireland to be prosperous enough to be able to import food from outside it's own island as the UK did during this time period. There are a couple ways this could happen, but the all require a renaissance POD or earlier.

Option 1: Irish empire. Somehow medieval Ireland gets its act together and becomes the premier power in the birth isles. Some port city (cork?) becomes the capital of an empire and thus forms the centre of a trade network stretching throughout the british isles and onto the mainland. The wealth generated by this trade (and maybe also though military means??) allows Ireland to import food from England and the continent and eventually leads to Ireland as an industrial power which can sustain large urban populations.

Option 2: Irish America. Ireland somehow discovers the newfoundland fishery in the 1300s and 1400s. This fishery on its own greatly increases the Irish food supply, allowing for a greater population, but also perhaps leads to a set or Irish colonies in northeastern north America which act as a breadbasket for Ireland the way that the thirteen colonies and then canada did for the UK. Again, you'd need to somehow keep Ireland independent and militarily powerful to have them hold on to these colonies but they wouldn'T have to conquer the rest of the British isle.

Either of these are pretty big irish-wanks, but this sort of irish-wank could lead eventually to a more populous Ireland. ...
 
I'm gonna go with success at the battle of the Boyne.

If the Irish can put a pro-Irish king at the head of England, there would be more pro-Irish policies and more importantly less anti-Irish ones.

There is highly fertile ground all over Ireland, it has access to good seas, if it's big enough it could become a coloniser in its own right or split from the UK earlier if it catches the wave.

They do have coal in the north, could make do with the resources available.

30M does seem like a high figure given the size of the island. I agree with a 15/30M estimate is entirely within the realm of possibilities
 
I think you'd need to switch the roles of Ireland and England. IOTL England was an economic magnet that drew migrants from Ireland, Scotland and Wales. You can't have England be that important and still have Ireland's population boom. Somehow Ireland has to become the center of the empire.
 

Art

Monthly Donor
You'd have to have a POD

As far back as Niall of the Nine Hostages, or at least the Norman lord Strongbow to pull something like that off. No Norman Conquest, so England does not conquer first Wales, then invade Ireland piecemeal, then take over Scotland on and off. You would have a very different British Isles in that case.
 
Top