PC: Iranian Civil War

kernals12

Banned
Iraq's unprovoked attack on Iran almost certainly helped the latter's Islamist government consolidate its power, which allowed them to silence all the dissent. So if Saddam has a change of heart for whatever reason, maybe he decides it's too risky, could Iran descend into a civil war during the 1980s?

It should be remembered also that Iran is a very diverse country with Persians only making up some 60% of the population, there's also Kurds, Azerbaijanis, Balochs, and Arabs, which seems like it would pose a volatile mixture.
 
There would be a less Islamic government, but a Civil War? Who could challenge the mullahs?

The Tudeh had weak social backings,
The MEK were a bunch of cultists,
The separatists were localized,
Etc, etc.
None of them could work together.
 
There would be a less Islamic government, but a Civil War? Who could challenge the mullahs?

The Tudeh had weak social backings,
The MEK were a bunch of cultists,
The separatists were localized,
Etc, etc.
None of them could work together.

Take out the biggest one of all.

Ruhollah_Khomeinii.jpg


Sure, it won't break the power of the mullahs, but a lack of a proper succession and the charisma of Khomeini is bound to fracture the clerics into infighting, enough for other factions to gain parity either with Iraqi help or with royalist in the military.
 
It's important to remember that the mullahs weren't a united front in 1979. Traditionally, the ulema had seen themselves as watchdogs over state/society, looking in from outside (or down from above) than as an actual part of the governing process, and Khomeini's formulation of the "guardianship of the jurist" was formed in opposition to that tradition-- basically saying that the Shah's incompetence and Westernizing tendencies had reached a point that the ulema had to take matters into their own hands. Though enough accepted this line of thinking to sweep Khomeini into power, many had to be beaten into submission over the course of Khomeini's war effort/statebuilding in the 80s, and even then there were problems with Montazeri (which I will get to soon).

I propose Mohammed Kazem Shariatmadari as a sort of anti-Khomeini who wants a conservative government but not an outright theocracy. If he is successful, he might get support not just from other enemies of Khomeini but also get Montazeri (who was Khomeini's heir apparent through much of the 80s until he fell out with the Supreme Leader over the lack of genuine freedoms in the Islamic Republic) to defect to his faction/camp. That'll be a nice bit of egg on Khomeini's face, at which point he probably tries to kickstart the unification of the urban street militias into a nascent Revolutionary Guard Corps while Shariatmadari/Montazeri hold talks with the regular Army...

Linked below is an article on some of the 1980 clashes between Shariatmadari's following in Azerbaijan and Khomeini's paramilitaries. Without the existential threat of Saddam, it's not hard to imagine a situation where "fortified party headquarters" become fortresses in their own right, housing the governing circles of rebel scholars and generals. Add a dash of Tudeh/MEK fuckery and you got Ethiopia writ large.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...6ea-ad6c-d74e5ef9974d/?utm_term=.03c89bc3a97c
 
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Khanzeer

Banned
What are the chances of Tudeh backing shariatmandari ?
How will the outside powers notably gulf states, ussr , usa , UK support any players in this civil war ?
 
What are the chances of Tudeh backing shariatmandari ?
How will the outside powers notably gulf states, ussr , usa , UK support any players in this civil war ?
Probably none. Shariat-madari was a conservative cleric who represented all Tudeh stood against. They briefly supported Khomeini IOTL, sort of, precisely because Khomeini was NOT, in a sense, a conservative. Indeed, his message was truly revolutionary, even if that revolution called for very conservative social values.
 
If Iraq doesn't invade Iran and the latter country has a civil war, I wonder would effect this would have on the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan?
 
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