PC: Independent Rhineland state?

[SavoyTruffle]

In OTL Prussia was granted the Rhineland and Westphalia at the Congress of Vienna in part to serve as a bulwark against France and in part to compensate it for its loss of most of its formerly Polish territory. It did have possessions in western Germany even before Napoleon's radical rearrangement of the map; the areas of Kleves, Mark and Ravensburg (as well as East Frisia) were all Hohenzollern possessions since the 17th century, which gave their acquisition of the Rhineland legitimacy.

So what events TTL could cause the Rhineland to be held as an independent state by another dynasty instead of being handed over to Prussia?

 

[EnvarKadri]

The Prussians exchanging their catholic posessions in the Rhineland for the Wettin protestan Saxony, so you get a complete prussian Saxony and a Wettin catholic Rhineland Kingdom.

 

[Tito Andronicus]

Perhaps the Hanoverians being granted the Rhineland in order to tie Britain more closely into the system of containment? After 1837, succession laws could result in the state going its own way, as Hanover did OTL?

 

[Pralaya]

In OTL Prussia was granted the Rhineland and Westphalia at the Congress of Vienna in part to serve as a bulwark against France and in part to compensate it for its loss of most of its formerly Polish territory. It did have possessions in western Germany even before Napoleon's radical rearrangement of the map; the areas of Kleves, Mark and Ravensburg (as well as East Frisia) were all Hohenzollern possessions since the 17th century, which gave their acquisition of the Rhineland legitimacy.

So what events TTL could cause the Rhineland to be held as an independent state by another dynasty instead of being handed over to Prussia?

The Duchy of Jülich-Cleves-Berg, belonging to the house of Palatinate-Neuburg, was the dominant force in the Rhineland after the secularization of episcopal territories. I could see the Bavarians or Austrians having a particular interest in the resurrection of a Catholic Rhineland, but the giving away Prussian holdings really doesn't sound like Prussia, something must be given in return. Saxony would be the closest bet, but it would be hard to believably pull it off, since Frederick Augustus I was a very popular king in both Saxony and Poland and he was unconditional loyal to Saxon interests, it is impossible for him to give up not only Poland but Saxony after the Congress of Vienna as well.

I am not too familiar with the proceedings of Mr. von Metternich's rebalancing act, but as much as I would have loved to see an independent Rhineland in a timeline, a PoD in 1815 certainly wouldn't be the best bet.

 

[AnonymousSauce]

The Duchy of Jülich-Cleves-Berg, belonging to the house of Palatinate-Neuburg, was the dominant force in the Rhineland after the secularization of episcopal territories. I could see the Bavarians or Austrians having a particular interest in the resurrection of a Catholic Rhineland, but the giving away Prussian holdings really doesn't sound like Prussia, something must be given in return. Saxony would be the closest bet, but it would be hard to believably pull it off, since Frederick Augustus I was a very popular king in both Saxony and Poland and he was unconditional loyal to Saxon interests, it is impossible for him to give up not only Poland but Saxony after the Congress of Vienna as well.

I am not too familiar with the proceedings of Mr. von Metternich's rebalancing act, but as much as I would have loved to see an independent Rhineland in a timeline, a PoD in 1815 certainly wouldn't be the best bet.

Is there some way that he could be seen as even more tied up with Napoleon than IOTL so the Powers felt justified in depriving him of his kingdom altogether?

 

[Pralaya]

Is there some way that he could be seen as even more tied up with Napoleon than IOTL so the Powers felt justified in depriving him of his kingdom altogether?

I mean, he lost an entire Polish kingdom and more than three-fifths of his ancestral duchy, I don't think he could be more humiliated. Annexing Saxony outright would also conflict Austrian interests, as Saxony was Catholic and a nice buffer state between Bohemia and Prussia. Also, Prussia has huge interests in this wealthy region, you have to look somewhere much more wealthy to convince Prussia to let go of the young heart of the beginning German industry.

 

[Nivek]

In OTL Prussia was granted the Rhineland and Westphalia at the Congress of Vienna in part to serve as a bulwark against France and in part to compensate it for its loss of most of its formerly Polish territory. It did have possessions in western Germany even before Napoleon's radical rearrangement of the map; the areas of Kleves, Mark and Ravensburg (as well as East Frisia) were all Hohenzollern possessions since the 17th century, which gave their acquisition of the Rhineland legitimacy.

So what events TTL could cause the Rhineland to be held as an independent state by another dynasty instead of being handed over to Prussia?

The prussians decided to reward the Sigmarinen after they failed to get the spanish throne, and voila, a Independent Rhineland even if was in Prussia orbit and family compact. OTL Prussia was the only one was able to defend it.

The other way would be the Bavaria-Belgium/Burgundy exchange happens and they Wittelbasch tank napoleon as best they can and when defeated they got it as a reward when the Prussian Got Saxony Instead.

Other would be the Idea of Swaping Rhineland for What would become Belgium, as Prussia have it and them partition Rhineland with Netherlands, Luxemburg and Wutterburg.

 

[Jürgen]

The Bavarians doesn’t change side in time and Austria annex Bavaria, the Wittelsbach get palatinate, Jülich-Berg and everything between, which becomes the kingdom of the Rhineland.. Prussia get Saxony, while the Wettins set up shop in Westphalia. UK out of fear of future French expansion set up a alliance system between Rhineland, Westphalia, Hanover and the Netherlands.

 

[Maniakes]

At the time, France still aspired to its "natural border" on the Rhine. One of the big effects of giving the Rhineland to Prussia was that the territory was directly in the hands of another Great Power, making a major war almost automatic if France tried to seize the Rhineland by force. Even so, France provoked a diplomatic crisis over the Rhineland in 1840 IOTL. It didn't go anywhere, since Prussia successfully played it up as an issue of German nationalism (rallying the whole German Confederation to their support), and since the French minister who was pushing the claims lost his domestic political support over other issues.

ITTL, it's an open question whether the independent Rhineland state would be able to successfully resist French ambitions. Maybe Prussia and the other German states would back them up, or maybe other powers (most likely Britain) would intervene, but France would have a much better opportunity than IOTL to annex the Rhineland.

 

[JanWellem]

... as Saxony was Catholic ...

Most definately not, Saxony was almost exclusively protestant, only the Wettins had converted to Catholicism to be eligible to the Polish throne.

 

[Nivek]

At the time, France still aspired to its "natural border" on the Rhine. One of the big effects of giving the Rhineland to Prussia was that the territory was directly in the hands of another Great Power, making a major war almost automatic if France tried to seize the Rhineland by force. Even so, France provoked a diplomatic crisis over the Rhineland in 1840 IOTL. It didn't go anywhere, since Prussia successfully played it up as an issue of German nationalism (rallying the whole German Confederation to their support), and since the French minister who was pushing the claims lost his domestic political support over other issues.

ITTL, it's an open question whether the independent Rhineland state would be able to successfully resist French ambitions. Maybe Prussia and the other German states would back them up, or maybe other powers (most likely Britain) would intervene, but France would have a much better opportunity than IOTL to annex the Rhineland.

Prussia was still the Vanguard of the West..meaning nope, France will fails as bad as OTL. Maybe here Eltass Lothringen become a duchy early on as Wilhelm II wanted

 

[snerfuplz]

I think the best bet would be a Rhineland that was a French Protectorate. Though as Maniakes mentioned there was more of a desire in France to annex the Rhineland and create the "natural border" that a simple protectorate

 

[Pralaya]

Most definately not, Saxony was almost exclusively protestant, only the Wettins had converted to Catholicism to be eligible to the Polish throne.

My mistake, you're absolutely right. Nonetheless, the point still stands, the Wettins and especially the Habsburgs behind them giving up Saxony would be a bit ASB.

The Bavarians doesn’t change side in time and Austria annex Bavaria, the Wittelsbach get palatinate, Jülich-Berg and everything between, which becomes the kingdom of the Rhineland.. Prussia get Saxony, while the Wettins set up shop in Westphalia. UK out of fear of future French expansion set up a alliance system between Rhineland, Westphalia, Hanover and the Netherlands.

It's unlikely that the House of Wittelsbach will be kicked out of Bavaria instead of just making concessions like releasing Franconia as an independent duchy or making minor border readjustments in favour of neighboring nations. And, again, the outright annexation of Saxony isn't as favourable as the Rhineland where Prussia as dukes of Brandenburg ruled minor and major territories for some centuries by this point.
One should butterfly away Prussian possessions there and the Prussian interest in the region in general. And this is only possible with an way earlier PoD. Probably going as far back as the extinction of the house of la Marck in 1609 which, in turn, would probably butterfly the whole discussion away.

 

[Monter]

Putting a former French ally on the Rhineland (at the expense of its ancestral territories) would make a hell of an unreliable buffer, problem is I don't know any minor prince that was anti-Napoleon enough to warrant a claim on the region.

 

[isabella]

Putting a former French ally on the Rhineland (at the expense of its ancestral territories) would make a hell of an unreliable buffer, problem is I don't know any minor prince that was anti-Napoleon enough to warrant a claim on the region.

Maybe get Austria doing more than Prussia in causing the definitive fall of Napoleon and give the Rhineland to Teschen?