PC: How plausible are these alliances for an alt WW1?

[jczak97]

Side 1- Germany, Russia, Italy

Side 2- Great Britain, France, Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Turkey

i have a very rough Timeline in my head and I would like to see how plausible the alliance is.

Say the POD being that the Reinsurance treaty is upheld,with Germany and Russia staying allied. Austria-Hungary seeing the writing on the wall align with France.

Thanks in advance.

(edit) actually this might need to go to before 1900, my bad

 

[AussieHawker]

Italy relies on massive imports, particularly of coal. So siding against Britian isn't a good idea, unless the transportation system between Germany and Italy is secure and heavily built up.

 

[Caesar_33]

It seems very plausible! I'm guessing Russia would want Galicia and Anatolia, Italy would want Trentino and Trieste, and Germany would want to annex the German parts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

 

[Caesar_33]

Italy relies on massive imports, particularly of coal. So siding against Britian isn't a good idea, unless the transportation system between Germany and Italy is secure and heavily built up.

I mean, Italy's main objection to joining the war was A.H refusal to hand over Italian-speaking territories of the A-H Empire. So I could see a world where Italy allies with Germany pretty plausible. And It's not like A-H would last that long against Germany, Russia, and Italy for that long

 

[jczak97]

Italy relies on massive imports, particularly of coal. So siding against Britian isn't a good idea, unless the transportation system between Germany and Italy is secure and heavily built up.

Could say a trans-Alps railway fix that problem? Germany could in theory supply the coal if they can get it to Italy. Thanks

It seems very plausible! I'm guessing Russia would want Galicia and Anatolia, Italy would want Trentino and Trieste, and Germany would want to annex the German parts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Yeah that would be my thoughts as well. Some other thoughts i had were Germany getting what would be Czechkoslovkia, and Italy getting Nice and Savoy. Thanks

 

[Caesar_33]

Could say a trans-Alps railway fix that problem? Germany could in theory supply the coal if they can get it to Italy. Thanks

Well, the only problem is that A-H is straight in the way. Shipping through neutral Switzerland might be an option.

 

[jczak97]

Well, the only problem is that A-H is straight in the way. Shipping through neutral Switzerland might be an option.

Ah shoot overlooked that. Yeah shipping through Switzerland could possibly work, would a way to convince the Swiss.

 

[Caesar_33]

Ah shoot overlooked that. Yeah shipping through Switzerland could possibly work, would a way to convince the Swiss.

I'm no expert on Swiss politics, but if their banking attitude in WWII shows anything, I don't think Switzerland had a problem profiting off of war, and say, being paid tons of money to ship vital coal to Italy.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Side 1- Germany, Russia, Italy

Side 2- Great Britain, France, Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Turkey

i have a very rough Timeline in my head and I would like to see how plausible the alliance is.

Say the POD being that the Reinsurance treaty is upheld,with Germany and Russia staying allied. Austria-Hungary seeing the writing on the wall align with France.

Thanks in advance.

(edit) actually this might need to go to before 1900, my bad

Why would France want to shackle itself to that particular corpse though? A-H isen't exactly in a position to offer France that much assistance... though I assume in this TL they're going to be spending more on their military than our own, they're still isolated from their allies. Unless this timeline includes the Ottomans avoiding their Balkan and Italo-Turkish war (Which, given the alliances as they stand, is pretty likely)

Given that, then Italy's the one who's in an incredibly vulnerable position, given how exposed she is to Hapsburg-Franco-British naval dominance and seeing her entire system of commerce fall to pieces right at the war's start. If the French can get into the Lombard plains (Which I'd wager they can), any rail connection to Germany via the Swiss would be a moot point, and Italy would quickly lose her most industrially potent region. Sure, while that's happening the Hapsburgs are getting hammered along the Carpathians and in Bohemia, but given the terrain advantage in those areas and the almost inevitable shift to a more defensive focus for her military given the strategic situation and I can see the Italians easily cracking first... at which point the Med. is an Entente lake.

This results in Russia being isolated from international commerce, since thanks to the Anglo-Japanese alliance (And the strong rivalry between Japan and Russia) Japan is also going to be fighting on the Entente side. And the German militarists being aligned with the Czarist autocracy isen't going to do so well for the alliance's reputation abroad (Say, in The United States).

 

[jczak97]

I'm no expert on Swiss politics, but if their banking attitude in WWII shows anything, I don't think Switzerland had a problem profiting off of war, and say, being paid tons of money to ship vital coal to Italy.

Yeah I'll do some digging and see what i can find. Without looking into it, I'm inclined to agree with you

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I'm no expert on Swiss politics, but if their banking attitude in WWII shows anything, I don't think Switzerland had a problem profiting off of war, and say, being paid tons of money to ship vital coal to Italy.

You assume France and G.B can't afford to out-bid the Germans. Or that they have the rail capacity to get enough coal out of Germany into Italy to make up for what they importing from Western Europe. They can do some, sure, but I imagine the Swiss would eventually see that the Entente can offer a better deal. Especially once the effects of the blockade start to set in and Germany finds now THEY have to subsidize the Czar's man-rich but cash-poor Empire.

 

[CaliGuy]

Side 1- Germany, Russia, Italy

Side 2- Great Britain, France, Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Turkey

i have a very rough Timeline in my head and I would like to see how plausible the alliance is.

Say the POD being that the Reinsurance treaty is upheld,with Germany and Russia staying allied. Austria-Hungary seeing the writing on the wall align with France.

Thanks in advance.

(edit) actually this might need to go to before 1900, my bad

It's possible if Germany is willing to throw Austria-Hungary under the bus in the late 19th century. However, Italy would only enter the war very late in the game--specifically after it already becomes clear that Austria-Hungary is about to fall.

 

[CaliGuy]

Why would France want to shackle itself to that particular corpse though? A-H isen't exactly in a position to offer France that much assistance... though I assume in this TL they're going to be spending more on their military than our own, they're still isolated from their allies. Unless this timeline includes the Ottomans avoiding their Balkan and Italo-Turkish war (Which, given the alliances as they stand, is pretty likely)

Given that, then Italy's the one who's in an incredibly vulnerable position, given how exposed she is to Hapsburg-Franco-British naval dominance and seeing her entire system of commerce fall to pieces right at the war's start. If the French can get into the Lombard plains (Which I'd wager they can), any rail connection to Germany via the Swiss would be a moot point, and Italy would quickly lose her most industrially potent region. Sure, while that's happening the Hapsburgs are getting hammered along the Carpathians and in Bohemia, but given the terrain advantage in those areas and the almost inevitable shift to a more defensive focus for her military given the strategic situation and I can see the Italians easily cracking first... at which point the Med. is an Entente lake.

This results in Russia being isolated from international commerce, since thanks to the Anglo-Japanese alliance (And the strong rivalry between Japan and Russia) Japan is also going to be fighting on the Entente side. And the German militarists being aligned with the Czarist autocracy isen't going to do so well for the alliance's reputation abroad (Say, in The United States).

Italy won't enter the war until and unless Austria-Hungary is about to fall. Indeed, Italy wouldn't want to jeopardize its coal imports from Britain (it got over 90% of its coal imports from Britain) unless it was sure that it was quickly going to get some Austro-Hungarian territory (as well as a supply route from Germany).

 

[Caesar_33]

Especially once the effects of the blockade start to set in and Germany finds now THEY have to subsidize the Czar's man-rich but cash-poor Empire.

If Russia is only fighting the unstable and defunct Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian Empire, I don't see why Russia would have such financial woes. It's not like Russia was nearly as incompetent militarily as Austria-Hungary or the Ottoman Empire.

 

[jczak97]

Why would France want to shackle itself to that particular corpse though? A-H isen't exactly in a position to offer France that much assistance... though I assume in this TL they're going to be spending more on their military than our own, they're still isolated from their allies. Unless this timeline includes the Ottomans avoiding their Balkan and Italo-Turkish war (Which, given the alliances as they stand, is pretty likely)

Given that, then Italy's the one who's in an incredibly vulnerable position, given how exposed she is to Hapsburg-Franco-British naval dominance and seeing her entire system of commerce fall to pieces right at the war's start. If the French can get into the Lombard plains (Which I'd wager they can), any rail connection to Germany via the Swiss would be a moot point, and Italy would quickly lose her most industrially potent region. Sure, while that's happening the Hapsburgs are getting hammered along the Carpathians and in Bohemia, but given the terrain advantage in those areas and the almost inevitable shift to a more defensive focus for her military given the strategic situation and I can see the Italians easily cracking first... at which point the Med. is an Entente lake.

This results in Russia being isolated from international commerce, since thanks to the Anglo-Japanese alliance (And the strong rivalry between Japan and Russia) Japan is also going to be fighting on the Entente side. And the German militarists being aligned with the Czarist autocracy isen't going to do so well for the alliance's reputation abroad (Say, in The United States).

Yeah, it while definitely leave Italy in a precarious spot if the French can pierce into Lombardy, and yeah i've been thinking along the same lines as you are for Japan and the United States. I'm not entirely sure I'll drag the Ottomans into the war at the very start, probably would be something I have to look into and see where they are politically OTL. Thanks

It's possible if Germany is willing to throw Austria-Hungary under the bus in the late 19th century. However, Italy would only enter the war very late in the game--specifically after it already becomes clear that Austria-Hungary is about to fall.

I agree, my plan would be something similar to OTL where they join after the war has already kicked off and them joining possibly a year or two into the war. Specifics are still up in the air. Thanks

 

[Aphrodite]

Side 1- Germany, Russia, Italy

Side 2- Great Britain, France, Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Turkey

i have a very rough Timeline in my head and I would like to see how plausible the alliance is.

Say the POD being that the Reinsurance treaty is upheld,with Germany and Russia staying allied. Austria-Hungary seeing the writing on the wall align with France.

Thanks in advance.

(edit) actually this might need to go to before 1900, my bad

There isn't a chance. The four powers would crumble in a matter of weeks to the Russo-German assault. The Ottomans are nothing and can barely defend themselves against a Balkan league.

Romania is joining the Russo-Germans. The only thing holding Romania to the Central Powers is King Carol's Hohenzolleren heritage. With the Germans fighting the Austrians, the Romanians are in. This is equivalent to Austria losing a fourth of its army before the fighting even starts. Not only will the Austrians need to deploy six divisions to watch the Romanians, Romanian intervention would free up six Russian divisions.

Then there's the little matter of the shellacking France and Austria took at the hands of the Russo-Germans in OTL. Things get even worse for the Quadruple Alliance as the Russians don't send their 1t and 2nd armies against the Germans in Prussia but south against the Austrians. The Germans also have their 8th Army freed up t o rampage anywhere they want. Nor are there going to be two corps sent East

I'm struggling to see how this can last more than six to eight weeks

And I think the Austrians, the French and the Ottomans know it as well. None of them are sticking their necks out in t his affair but rather they are throwing themselvesdown at the feet of Willie and Nicky begging for terms

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Italy won't enter the war until and unless Austria-Hungary is about to fall. Indeed, Italy wouldn't want to jeopardize its coal imports from Britain (it got over 90% of its coal imports from Britain) unless it was sure that it was quickly going to get some Austro-Hungarian territory (as well as a supply route from Germany).

In that case, then the alliance as proposed by the OP isn't viable since Italy is refusing to commit outside of conditions where she would have easily joined the war anyways, even without the pre-existing alliance. Germany is going to demand SOMETHING from her to demonstrate she's serious about this relationship, especially if Italy expects German support for her ambitions.

If Russia is only fighting the unstable and defunct Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian Empire, I don't see why Russia would have such financial woes. It's not like Russia was nearly as incompetent militarily as Austria-Hungary or the Ottoman Empire.

I'd take a closer look before I completely count out the Ottomans and Hapsburgs if I were you, ESPECIALLY since in a world in which they had Franco-British backing and the later was prepared for the type of war that the alliance structure seemed to be suggesting both are going to be harder nuts to crack than IRL. For example, in this timeline the Ottomans will only have to fight on a single front rather than the four they did in our timeline, and its the arguably the least troublesome of the lot (The Caucauses)... plus they'll have immediate access to material aid from abroad thanks to Entente domination of the Med. And don't forget the Pacific Front: England's ally Japan is going to be hitting the Russian Far East, alongside many other changes to the military situation. All those British forces deployed against the Ottomans IRL are going to be going SOMEWHERE, after all.

Of course, that dosen't have much of an effect at all on Russia's budgetary situation. You still have to feed and supply the same number of men with the same amount of industry, and without allies who have as much easy access to outside resources and capital as they did IRL to provide them with the needed loans. Hell, in this timeline Russia has access to LESS commerce due to the closing down of the Pacific, Arctic, and Persian routes... to say nothing of what might happen IN Persia.

 

[CaliGuy]

In that case, then the alliance as proposed by the OP isn't viable since Italy is refusing to commit outside of conditions where she would have easily joined the war anyways, even without the pre-existing alliance. Germany is going to demand SOMETHING from her to demonstrate she's serious about this relationship, especially if Italy expects German support for her ambitions.

The Italian sacrifice here might be to have Italy not claim South Tyrol.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Yeah, it while definitely leave Italy in a precarious spot if the French can pierce into Lombardy, and yeah i've been thinking along the same lines as you are for Japan and the United States. I'm not entirely sure I'll drag the Ottomans into the war at the very start, probably would be something I have to look into and see where they are politically OTL. Thanks



I agree, my plan would be something similar to OTL where they join after the war has already kicked off and them joining possibly a year or two into the war. Specifics are still up in the air. Thanks

I mean, I can see the Italian government glossing over that potential problem with the assumption that they'd have a cakewalk to Vienna and other such rosy perspectives. In our timeline they overestimated their ability to get across the frontier, and that was when the Austrians were prepping for a war with the assumption that Italy would be allied (or at least a benevolent neutral). But, realistically, they're pretty isolated from potential aid and likely to fold quickly. Maybe their folding is even what brings the Ottomans into the war; though, again, their tying to a Franco-Anglo alliance probably means they're in a better position at the war's start than in our timeline. Unless, say, the Italian demands on Tripolitania are what sparks crisis. Changes in the alliance structure don't occur in a vacume; keep that in mind, and I'm sure your timeline will turn out great. Best of luck.

 

[Caesar_33]

I'd take a closer look before I completely count out the Ottomans and Hapsburgs if I were you, ESPECIALLY since in a world in which they had Franco-British backing and the later was prepared for the type of war that the alliance structure seemed to be suggesting both are going to be harder nuts to crack than IRL. For example, in this timeline the Ottomans will only have to fight on a single front rather than the four they did in our timeline, and its the arguably the least troublesome of the lot (The Caucauses)... plus they'll have immediate access to material aid from abroad thanks to Entente domination of the Med. And don't forget the Pacific Front: England's ally Japan is going to be hitting the Russian Far East, alongside many other changes to the military situation. All those British forces deployed against the Ottomans IRL are going to be going SOMEWHERE, after all.

You make a lot of good points here, and I didn't even think about the Far East, although I'm suspicious to just how much Japan would be willing to involve itself in a protracted war in Manchuria/Transbaikal. But although the Ottomans would be significantly stronger, I really can't see Austria-Hungary lasting too long against both Germany and Russia, and I think we'll need more information in the Balkan theater (i.e the position of Bulgaria, which could jeopardize Konstaniyye)