PC: Greek Civil war ends in Communist victory or Partition with no Soviet assistance?

With Stalin maintaining his policy of not supporting the DSE, could the Communists have won, or at least managed to secure the north? Furthermore, if Tito continues to support them would they likely join his side in the Tito-Stalin split?
 
Partition for any meaningful amount of time is really, really unlikely. And the Communists can't win while the US are involved. So you have to prevent the Truman Doctrine or equivalent happening. Even then it's very difficult for the Communist side to win, you'd probably have to go back to the Dekemvriana (1944 Battle of Athens) for that.
 
How's this for a scenario:

Tito is emboldened to pursue his independent stance, begins supporting it even more than OTL. This further drives a wedge between Tito and Stalin. After Yugoslavia is expelled from the Cominform Albania, and maybe also Bulgaria, back them as opposed to OTL (Hoxa strikes me as a bit of an opportunist with few qualms about changing his political line so it would simply be a matter of convincing him that there is more to gain by defying Stalin), and as a result Yugoslavia continues to back the DSE after 1949. Fearing that this could be the beginning of the end for Soviet dominance over the world Communist movement Stalin relaxes his stance on Greece, telling the KKE that they should proceed according to their judgement of the situation. This is seen by the KKE as tacit support for continuing the revolution, which helps to restore morale, although the Soviet Union, and the satellites still under its control refuse to send any material support. Tensions rise to fever pitch as Yugoslavia and Albania invade, whilst the Americans are threatening to land forces in Greece. Stalin informs the US that, in the event of an allied invasion of Yugoslavia and Albania, the Soviet Union would not intervene, so long as the US forces do not advance into Serbia, hoping that the threat of an American invasion would be enough to spook Tito into returning to the Soviet fold. When that fails the Soviet Union offers to broker a ceasefire agreement between the two sides, which leads to a partition. The result is a Tito-aligned Communist state in the north, and a NATO-aligned Monarchist state in the south and in control of the islands (realistically the border would probably be drawn across the southern border of Thessaly and Epirus, but thematically I'm inclined to limit the Monarchists to the Peloponnese, with the Commies in Athens and the Royalists in Sparta to give it a Peloponnesian War feel). In the aftermath Tito integrates Albania, and maybe also North Greece, into Yugoslavia, whilst Stalin clamps down on Bulgaria to keep it in the Soviet camp.
 
Maybe a Communist Greece north of the Penios River, either an Albanian or Yugoslavian puppet. Otherwise, with intense British pressure and a Capitalist state to the South, it would not survive.
 
Top