PC: German "October Revolution"?

BigBlueBox

Banned
Scenario 1:
The German communists decide not to launch the Spartacus Uprising. Instead they participate in the 1919 Weimar elections and get a large enough share of the vote that the SPD has to invite them into the Weimar Coalition. Zentrum refuses to join a coalition that KPD is a member of. The Treaty of Versailles ends up being harsher due to the presence of the KPD and the Entente's anti-communist stance. The KPD walks out of the coalition and refuses to endorse the ToV, forcing the SPD to get all the blame. The Kapp putsch ends up getting significantly more support from the Reichswehr and German conservatives as a reaction against the KPD being treated as a legitimate political party and the harsher ToV. This forces the SPD to ally with the KPD, causing a full-blown civil war. The KPD usurps power from its erstwhile SPD allies during the war and comes out victorious.

Scenario 2:
The same as Scenario 1 except the Kapp Putsch manages to decapitate the SPD leadership and decisively seize control. The Kapp junta refuses to pay the ToV reparations or abide by the disarmament clauses, leading to a French invasion of Germany to restore the Weimar Republic under the leadership of a servile SPD government. The Freikorps and the German far-right ends up being almost completely destroyed by the French and discredited as well. Once the French leave, the mostly undamaged KPD ends up overthrowing the SPD, which is extremely unpopular due to collaborating with the French.

Are these two scenarios plausible? I compared them to the October Revolution because both involve a first revolution that removes the monarchy and establishes a parliamentary republic under the leadership of a social democratic/moderate socialist government and a second revolution that replaces that government with a full communist regime. Friedrich Ebert would be remembered as the German Kerensky in these scenarios.
 

Deleted member 94680

Would the French be able to invade Germany at that point of their post-war recovery?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Would the French be able to invade Germany at that point of their post-war recovery?
They were already occupying the Rhineland and occupied the Ruhr in 1923. Their enemies would be Freikorps and Reichswehr units that have given up most of their artillery and heavy weapons already. French public opinion would be in favor of the invasion because if France didn’t invade it would be as if they were giving up everything they fought for in the Great War. It could have repercussions in other parts of the world though, as the French might be too exhausted to invade the Arab Kingdom of Syria or assist the Spaniards in the Rif War.
 
Scenario two would be the ideal situation for Karl Radek's National Bolshevik dogwhistle strategy to pay off.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Scenario two would be the ideal situation for Karl Radek's National Bolshevik dogwhistle strategy to pay off.
Yeah, that’s actually what I was aiming for with that scenario, with the end goal being a Second World War in which Nazbol Germany and Nazbol Russia fight the capitalist powers.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Hmmm. who do you mean with
...The German communists ...
as i.e.
...decide not to launch the Spartacus Uprising. ...
was initiated, supported and maintained mainly by the USPD, the former left wing of the SPD becomming a party of its own in 1916.
The first german "communist" party was founded in December 1918 ... and stayed pretty "splinteral" until 1920 being absorbed by the USPD then renaming itself into "Vereinigte Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands (United communist party)".
... Instead they participate in the 1919 Weimar elections...
What the USPD actually did; for the election to the National Assembly in 1919 as well as for the first election to the Reichstag in 1920 when they scored QUITE a SHARE.

However. So much for some ... clarification of facts.

IMHO the "best" point of time for a german "october-revolution" would have been the october of 1923. The whole Reich was still in upheaval after the Ruhr-fight. There was the 'Küstrin Putsch of the so-called 'Black Reichswehr', Thuringia and Saxony were already in 'communist' hands, communist controlled goverments with some SPD participation as well as controlling communists militias. ... One of the reasons for Ebert to 'hand over' the executuive power to v.Seeckt aka the Reichswehr, that occupied both countries for "Reichsexecution" ordered by Ebert.

Also a necessity for v.Seeckt to first occupy these countries to - just in case - prevent a 'march onto Berlin' from whatever obscure putschist movement in Bavaria/Munich (Hitler had already tried such things the weeks before the 'final' beerhall-putsch) ...

Unfortunatly (?) the Hamburg Uprising of Thälmann and consorts fell rather short, not at least due to lacking support of the Komintern and Stalins ideology of 'communism in one country first'. As it seems the leadership was somewhat ... caught on wrong footing by some grassroot communists actions (aside later times communists hagiography).
 
Scenario 1:
The German communists decide not to launch the Spartacus Uprising. Instead they participate in the 1919 Weimar elections and get a large enough share of the vote that the SPD has to invite them into the Weimar Coalition.

In OTL when they participated in the 1920 elections, they got 2.1 percent of the vote and four seats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_German_federal_election

In 1919 even if the KPD had participated its strength would mostly be drawn from the OTL strength of the Independent Social Democrats (USPD) But the SPD and the Zentrum had enough seats to from a coalition without the Independent Social Democrats who got only 7.62 percent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_German_federal_election

It is very doubtful in 1919 that the KPD could have been essential to a coalition government. Most of the working class was still loyal to the SPD and even those who thought it insufficiently radical would mostly prefer the USPD to the KPD.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
@David T Are there any post-1917 PoDs that could have increased support for the USPD or KPD at the expense of the SPD without dramatically changing the final outcome of the war?
 
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