PC: Genghis Khan's Death Wanks Jurchens

Here's the rough idea -- Temujin dies from his neck wound in 1201, leading Jamukha to (much more loosely) unite the "Mongols" under his rule; about a decade later, the Jin Dynasty is successful in making the tribes "submit" (primarily paying miniscule tribute). Meanwhile, the Song re-establish "dominance" in Vietnam.

Later in the 13th Century, the Jin conquer the Goryeo, and in the early 14th finally subdue the Song, along with the Kingdom of Dali -- only to see plague break out in the 1330's (as it did under the Yuan in OTL). Along with several bloody civil wars, this leads their entire dynasty to collapse roughly mid-century, replaced by a new dynasty founded by a Chinese peasant -- who's Empire now encompasses not only OTL East China, but also the Korean peninsula, OTL Mongolia, parts of Siberia, and Vietnam.

So, short question -- given the PoD, is this chain of events plausible?
 
Here's the rough idea -- Temujin dies from his neck wound in 1201, leading Jamukha to (much more loosely) unite the "Mongols" under his rule; about a decade later, the Jin Dynasty is successful in making the tribes "submit" (primarily paying miniscule tribute). Meanwhile, the Song re-establish "dominance" in Vietnam.

Later in the 13th Century, the Jin conquer the Goryeo, and in the early 14th finally subdue the Song, along with the Kingdom of Dali -- only to see plague break out in the 1330's (as it did under the Yuan in OTL). Along with several bloody civil wars, this leads their entire dynasty to collapse roughly mid-century, replaced by a new dynasty founded by a Chinese peasant -- who's Empire now encompasses not only OTL East China, but also the Korean peninsula, OTL Mongolia, parts of Siberia, and Vietnam.

So, short question -- given the PoD, is this chain of events plausible?

I would say it's unlikely. The Jurchen Jin didn't have the force to defeat the Southern Song, and vice versa. I mean, it's not impossible, but if you wanted to increase the power of the Jurchen Jin, you'd probably have to the fall of Northern Song and have the Jin conquer all of China. They only missed capturing Song Gaozong by a few minutes, and they sacked the temporary Chinese capital (Lin'an, soon to be permanent Chinese capital) before withdrawing.

After a while, neither side had the ability to conquer the other. The Jurchens didn't seem that interested in it. Meanwhile, the Song weren't too interested in expanding either. They went to war with Vietnam, twice, and decided to stop. (They might have taken a bit of Vietnamese territory, but I'm not sure.)

So, of course the situation isn't impossible, but I don't think it's that likely.

And I should point out historically that after the fall of the Mongol Yuan, the new Ming Dynasty didn't encompass all of the territories of the previous dynasty, so there's no reason to assume that this would be the case either.
 
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