PC:French victory in Franco-Prussian war But Germany still unites

anyway could France win the Franco-Prussian war but Germany still forms during or immediately after the war

How would this affect European politics
 

raharris1973

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After defeat in war, Prussia especially but also some of the other states have revolutionary disturbances. There is demand within new republican states or super-reformed monarchy for German unity that is a federation of equals. France and Austria can try to fight against it and probably can hold some of the periphery, but ultimately any intervention strengthens German nationalistic revolutionary fervor and a united German state emerges out of this, quite differently arranged from OTL's 2nd Reich.
 
Bismark's goal in goading France to attacking was to create an enemy that all of the German states could unite against. Once France declared war the previously reluctant southern German states backed Prussia immediately. In my opinion the creation of Germany was assured the moment that France declared war.

I think that a French victory does two thing. First is that it makes French-German relations much more hostile and antagonistic since Napoleon will undoubtedly demand land. And secondly it may somewhat weaken Prussian leadership within Germany since their military leadership just lost the war.
 
I think that a French victory does two thing. First is that it makes French-German relations much more hostile and antagonistic since Napoleon will undoubtedly demand land. And secondly it may somewhat weaken Prussian leadership within Germany since their military leadership just lost the war.
What territory would France take
 
France is not taking the Rhineland, it's simply too much, but they can take the Saar, Luxembourg and Trier as well and maybe some Bavarian territory around that region as well, but that's about it.
 
Agreed. Luxembourg almost certainly becomes part of France. Napoleon was really dead set on acquiring it for some reason.
Something about having the biggest fortress or something.
France is not taking the Rhineland, it's simply too much, but they can take the Saar, Luxembourg and Trier as well and maybe some Bavarian territory around that region as well, but that's about it.
The Bavarian Palatinate ?
 
Something about having the biggest fortress or something.

The Bavarian Palatinate ?
Yes, although the French might want to get the South Germans on their good side as well, but it's kinda hard to do if they annex German land in any amount.
 
Yes, although the French might want to get the South Germans on their good side as well, but it's kinda hard to do if they annex German land in any amount.
They could technically pass some border adjustments back to the 1789 border in the Rhineland - France IIRC had slightly more in the Saar, like IIRC Sarrebruck - as acceptable. Large amounts though ? Way tougher to justify.
 

raharris1973

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I think that a French victory does two thing. First is that it makes French-German relations much more hostile and antagonistic since Napoleon will undoubtedly demand land. And secondly it may somewhat weaken Prussian leadership within Germany since their military leadership just lost the war.

Well that seems like a recipe for revolutionary political change in the Germans states along nationalist lines.

Then comes the question of whether that weakens Germany further by widening the scope for French intervention.

But the other potential outcome is revolutions in German states, that France could try to suppress by intervening, but the whole thing turns into a later 19th century vision of the peninsular war. Materially damaging to Germany, but something that France just cannot swallow for long.
 
Luxembourg fortress was demolished in 1867, in accordance with the Treaty of London in the same year establishing the neutrality of Luxembourg.
This also means that Luxembourg will not be annexed by France in any case: it would be a blatant violation of an international treaty, and in any case it would not even be in Prussia's remit to hand it over.
I'd like however understand how this French victory would materialize: IMHO, it would be an enormous success for the French to avoid a defeat. Louis Napoleon and all the geniuses in the top ranks of the French army had underestimated the advantages of Prussian hardware and organization, and I believe it would take an intervention of the Powers (which was a possibility before Sedan) to bring the combatants to agree a ceasefire and negotiate a peace treaty, but - at best - it would be a white peace.
Maybe if MacMahon is not sent to attempt against all odds to relieve Metz, or if the French Army of the North avoids to be trapped in Metz: both these possibilities are real, but they are also predicated on Louis Napoleon accepting he has lost the war, and must save the dynasty. Unlikely.
 
France can drive South Germany into Prussia's arms if he goes too wall. (And he will.)

At the same time, Britain will more attention to France as a potential rival.
 
*France comes into the war swinging with quick victories and defeats Prussian/NGC forces in the field.

*France occupies everything on the West bank of the Rhine and threatens to invade northern Germany farther.

*Reserve armies can not be deployed in time, Prussia yields as they estimate French forces could approach the Elbe before they could be stopped.

*France annexes the Saar, Luxembourg, Trier, Malmedy, and about half of the remaining areas west of the Rhine.

*Southern Germany, fearful of being bullied into a French puppet, begins talks to merge with the NGC.

*France triggers a revolt in Belgium separating the Flemish and Walloons, their awkward land grab for former Belgian territory pushes both southern Germany and the Netherlands into Berlin's arms

*Germany unites in 1875 and France becomes the boogeyman of the Continent
 
anyway could France win the Franco-Prussian war but Germany still forms during or immediately after the war

How would this affect European politics


Hardly. Because you are giving a contradictory injunction.

It is victory more than war that united Germany around Prussia. Because victory, and a stunning one, gave the German States and population a feeling of pride and demonstrated them that unity was worth it.

But the south German States were very reluctant to join a military (they were forced into it by Prussia) and the political federation led by Prussia.

So if the Prussia-led German coalition loses to France, all the house of cards built by Bismarck crumbles.

The reluctant German States will probably want to severe military ties with Prussia. And if ever they did not want it, they would be forced by France to severe these ties.

France can annex but small german territories otherwise it will alienate Britain. Which, since 1815, France had understood it should never do again unless becoming able to defeat Britain.

So France will translate victory by making sure of one point : that Germany remains divided.

This may imply creating a kind of south german confederation with Bavaria, Wurtemberg and Baden whose independence would be guaranteed by France and Austria-Hungary.

If the French victory is a clear one, this may mean making prussian Rhineland Westphalia inndependant from Prussia and restoring an independent kingdom of Hanover to please Britain. Which may help France secure Britain’s agreement for a few more territorial gains than just Luxemburg.


PS : this question was already asked several times on the forum, including very recently.
 
Hardly. Because you are giving a contradictory injunction.

It is victory more than war that united Germany around Prussia. Because victory, and a stunning one, gave the German States and population a feeling of pride and demonstrated them that unity was worth it.

But the south German States were very reluctant to join a military (they were forced into it by Prussia) and the political federation led by Prussia.

So if the Prussia-led German coalition loses to France, all the house of cards built by Bismarck crumbles.

The reluctant German States will probably want to severe military ties with Prussia. And if ever they did not want it, they would be forced by France to severe these ties.

France can annex but small german territories otherwise it will alienate Britain. Which, since 1815, France had understood it should never do again unless becoming able to defeat Britain.

So France will translate victory by making sure of one point : that Germany remains divided.

This may imply creating a kind of south german confederation with Bavaria, Wurtemberg and Baden whose independence would be guaranteed by France and Austria-Hungary.

If the French victory is a clear one, this may mean making prussian Rhineland Westphalia inndependant from Prussia and restoring an independent kingdom of Hanover to please Britain. Which may help France secure Britain’s agreement for a few more territorial gains than just Luxemburg.


PS : this question was already asked several times on the forum, including very recently.

That is very true about ganing to much taratory would anger Briton (alto I don't think enuff to caused them to intervene, Briton was always more wored about the chanal ports then the rhineland, that is what caused them to intervene in the revolutionary wars, not the rhinland) I think you missed the fact that one of the explicit goles for Louise Napoleon was to regain the rhinland. Hell, gust before the war Napoleon III had a meeting whith his generals before the war whare he drank some rhineland wine then told told his generals they should try this new "french" wine. Whether this really happened or not it shows that Napoleon III (who keep in mind spent like his intier rein trying to recreate his uncle's empire ) was planing to not only stop German unification , like he tried and utterly failed at in Italy , but to regain the rhineland.

For examples see:the Crimean war and the Luxemburg crisis.
 
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