PC: French crown in exchange of Spanish crown?

In OTL 1868-1875, Spain was in a nasty revolution that expelled the house of Bourbon, and they didn't regain the throne until 1875.

What if:
  • The rebels offered the crown to Archduke Karl Ludwig of Austria, younger brother of Franz Joseph I, instead of Amadeo of Savoy.
  • Austria accept the offer but France vetoed against it, which triggered war between Austria and France over Spanish succession.
  • France was defeated, public anger demand the resignation of Napoleon III, instead he hanged himself a few days after the signing of the peace treaty. With vast majorities of French people against Napoleon IV's inheritance, France was left in a state of chaotic interregnum.
  • Austria, still have great influence of now chaotic France, offered the currently in exiled Bourbons the French crown in exchange of the Legitimacy of Spanish crown they seem cannot hold on to.
  • Bourbons agreed, Spain is now again under Habsburg control.
 
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In OTL 1868-1875, Spain was in a nasty revolution that expelled the house of Bourbon, and they didn't regain the throne until 1875.

What if:
  • The rebels offered the crown to Archduke Karl Ludwig of Austria, younger brother of Franz Joseph I, instead of Amadeo of Savoy.
  • Austria accept the offer but France vetoed against it, which triggered war between Austria and France over Spanish succession.
  • France was defeated, public anger demand the resignation of Napoleon III, instead he hanged himself a few days after the signing of the peace treaty. With vast majorities of French people against Napoleon IV's inheritance, France was left in a state of chaotic interregnum.
  • Austria, still have great influence of now chaotic France, offered the currently in exiled Bourbons the French crown in exchange of the Legitimacy of Spanish crown they seem cannot hold on to.
  • Bourbons agreed, Spain is now again under Habsburg control.

The Spanish Borbons won't accept the offer of the French throne until the death of the Comte de Chambord, and the Comte de Chambord's heir (to the hardcore legitimists) is not Queen Isabel II or her husband or son, but rather D. Juan, Isabel's cousin. So Chambord won't accept, Isabel et al won't accept, Juan might accept but he has no powerbase in France, the Orléanists sure-as-hell won't accept, and the Bonapartes won't accept it (Plon-Plon and Eugènie despite their mutual loathing for one another, might actually decide to make common, Bonapartist cause here, though I foresee them falling out after they crown Napoléon IV).

Also, does Karl Ludwig take his ballerino body-guard with him to Madrid?
 
The Spanish Borbons won't accept the offer of the French throne until the death of the Comte de Chambord, and the Comte de Chambord's heir (to the hardcore legitimists) is not Queen Isabel II or her husband or son, but rather D. Juan, Isabel's cousin. So Chambord won't accept, Isabel et al won't accept, Juan might accept but he has no powerbase in France, the Orléanists sure-as-hell won't accept, and the Bonapartes won't accept it (Plon-Plon and Eugènie despite their mutual loathing for one another, might actually decide to make common, Bonapartist cause here, though I foresee them falling out after they crown Napoléon IV).

Also, does Karl Ludwig take his ballerino body-guard with him to Madrid?
It's hard for me to grasp that Orleanists and Bonapartes would work together to push Napoleon IV on the throne just to fend off Bourbon, won't that make the Orleanists even weaker now they have openly worked with another pretender?

BTW, I tried really hard to search about Karl Ludwig's ballerino bodyguard, but couldn't seem to find any.
 

raharris1973

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In OTL 1868-1875, Spain was in a nasty revolution that expelled the house of Bourbon, and they didn't regain the throne until 1875.

What if:
  • The rebels offered the crown to Archduke Karl Ludwig of Austria, younger brother of Franz Joseph I, instead of Amadeo of Savoy.
  • Austria accept the offer but France vetoed against it, which triggered war between Austria and France over Spanish succession.

Napoleon III may truly have no objections to a Habsburg taking the Spanish Crown in 1868 or later.

There is a world of difference between that era and the pre-1866 era. Austria-Hungary is obviously weaker, and Prussia is the power to worry about in Germany.

Amadeo only assumed the throne in November 1870, by which time the Franco-Prussian War had been going for months. The Hohenzollern candidacy was only withdrawn in July 1870. Paris would have been foolish in the extreme to object to a Habsburg candidate in 1870. In fact, the Prussians may have more heartache about it, and fear of their wrath make Franz-Josef force Karl Ludwig to decline.

If the French are so foolish as to threaten a war against Austria-Hungary over the Karl Ludwig candidacy, the Austro-Hungarians will not be alone, Bismarck would love to find an excuse to have Prussia prove its mettle over France by joining Austria's side against France.

Even is Bismarck or Wilhelm did not go so far themselves, the fear of Franco-Austrian war would be exactly the kind of contingency that could make the South German states beg to join the North German Confederation. :)

*Very* interesting PoD, even if I did not see it going in the direction the OP speculated.
 
Napoleon III may truly have no objections to a Habsburg taking the Spanish Crown in 1868 or later.

There is a world of difference between that era and the pre-1866 era. Austria-Hungary is obviously weaker, and Prussia is the power to worry about in Germany.

Amadeo only assumed the throne in November 1870, by which time the Franco-Prussian War had been going for months. The Hohenzollern candidacy was only withdrawn in July 1870. Paris would have been foolish in the extreme to object to a Habsburg candidate in 1870. In fact, the Prussians may have more heartache about it, and fear of their wrath make Franz-Josef force Karl Ludwig to decline.

If the French are so foolish as to threaten a war against Austria-Hungary over the Karl Ludwig candidacy, the Austro-Hungarians will not be alone, Bismarck would love to find an excuse to have Prussia prove its mettle over France by joining Austria's side against France.

Even is Bismarck or Wilhelm did not go so far themselves, the fear of Franco-Austrian war would be exactly the kind of contingency that could make the South German states beg to join the North German Confederation. :)

*Very* interesting PoD, even if I did not see it going in the direction the OP speculated.
Thanks for the great analysis, I'm currently working on a TL that make Austria significantly more powerful and is on it's way to reunite the HRE land, I doubt Napoleon III would appreciate the restoration of Spanish Habsburg under such circumstances.
What Napoleon III thinks in my mind:
" Those Habsburgs had exhaust themselves after defeating Prussia, they are no match to us, onward soldiers, contain the German aggression!"
Austria:
" Those Franks are coming to conquer us again! If we don't push them back we would all speak French in the future!" and basically called the entire German confederation into the war.
 
It's hard for me to grasp that Orleanists and Bonapartes would work together to push Napoleon IV on the throne just to fend off Bourbon, won't that make the Orleanists even weaker now they have openly worked with another pretender?

BTW, I tried really hard to search about Karl Ludwig's ballerino bodyguard, but couldn't seem to find any.

Who said anything about the Orléanists and the Bonapartists? I said that Eugènie (Napoléon III's wife, Napoléon IV's mother) and Plon-Plon (Prince Napoléon, Jérome Bonaparte's son) might make common cause to make sure that Napoléon IV is crowned. OTL, the two of them hated each other like fire, with Eugènie being representative of the conservative, monarchical faction, while Plon-Plon was more the embodiment of the republican, liberal side of the Bonapartism. Plon-Plon openly scorned Eugènie, and said that should something happen to the emperor [Napoléon IV], France would never accept the rule of a woman and a child, and it would be to him, the oldest legitimate imperial male-line Bonaparte. He had a point, the Bonapartes, the Bourbons and the house of Orléans when they were thrown out left regencies for a child (the king of Rome, the Comte de Chambord, and the comte de Paris) in the stead of an adult male, and all three fell like a house of cards. However, that's not to say that France wouldn't accept a regency, it's just that there had been an issue of treachery with Chambord's regency (Charles X originally appointed Louis Philippe regent for his grandson, and when LP went to the chambers he told them that Chambord had likewise abdicated), and the duchesse de Chartres was unpopular with the French because of her a) conservatism (like Eugènie), and b) religion (she was Protestant).

And as to Karl Ludwig's ballerino-bodyguard, my mistake. I forgot that there was another brother, Ludwig Viktor, that Franz Josef joked when he heard about Ludwig's attachment to a ballerino that then said male should be made the archduke's bodyguard.
 
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