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What's the plausibility of this skeletal timeline-

PoD - For whatever limited, narrow, reason the Japanese never overthrow the "Vichy" French authorities in Indochina in March 1945 or any point during the war.

Major Knock-on consequence #1 -

On VJ Day, the "Vichy" French authorities in Indochina declare themselves loyal to liberated France and request surrender of the already defeated Japanese.

French administration of Indochina is continuous, there never is a rupturing of the French administration and Japanese declaration of faux Vietnamese independence. Once metropolitan France reestablishes contact, some officials are purged for collaboration but most are retained.

Without the Japanese overthrow of the French and resultant power vacuum, the Viet Minh do not have the chance to establish themselves as a regime in Hanoi and temporarily/nominally in control of all Vietnam as they were in OTL for August-September 1945.

The Viet Minh, without these successes remains for a long time limited to the fringe areas of the Sino-Vietnamese border, with hardly any ability to suppress other political tendencies or be a dominated influence over the cities and valleys of Vietnam.

Bottom-line - The Viet Minh are not on a trajectory to be able to wear down the French resolve to retain Indochina by 1954. When independence for Vietnam comes, the Viet Minh might no longer even be the most relevant independence movement.

Major knock-on consequence #2

Without Dien Bien Phu and the humiliation of France there, the Algerian independence war does not begin in 1954, but rather it starts much later if at all. Also, not worn down by the Indochina War, cracks in the French consensus to hold on to Algeria do not appear at least until fighting has gone on for longer than the 8 years of the OTL Algerian War for independence.

Major knock-on consequence #3

Without Dien Bien Phu, the Geneva Conference granting independence to Indochina and or the FLN guerrilla uprising starting in 1954, France has enough leverage it need not concede independence to Morrocco and Algeria in 1956, and it need not grant the West and Equatorial African colonies independence in 1960.


Cumulative knock-on from these delays: At least in Algeria and Sub-Saharan Africa, French rule is holding on as late as 1975, 13 years later than OTL for Algeria, and 15 years later than OTL for Sub-Saharan Africa, matching the stubborn persistence of OTL's Portuguese African empire.


Can voiding the specific armed challenges to French rule of OTL's 1945-1962, by itself, give the French Colonial Empire more than a decade of additional life?

Why or why not?
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