PC - First ARW fails...

I was just mulling around some ideas, and I've noticed a couple of people have made maps (and in Finley's case an entire timeline) based on the idea that the first American Revolution fails, but a second attempt is more militant and successful.

I think that is entirely plausible, but what if the second attempt fails in its ultimate goals as well? The idea I'm going for, is that sometime after 1800 (French Revolution and Napolean have been butterflied), the Americans rise up again and this time form an independent republic, but that republic falls apart soon after as well.

Perhaps a second attempt at forming a constitution results in further secessions or lack of cooperation between states. Maybe the bulwark of the territory survives, but an ACW analogue tears that apart later on.

Whatever the reasoning, I'm wondering if a series of politically independent republics could survive along the eastern seaboard of North America, and what would happen to them in the long run. Apologies if I'm not being very clear on this, I'm having a hard time wording it myself.

Also, I'm wondering what happens to Louisiana in this world. As it stands, after the first American Revolution fails, Louisiana is still in Spanish hands because France never reclaimed it and sold it to the USA (which doesn't exist).

Anyway - if you can make heads or tails of what I'm talking about, discuss!
 
In a no ARW world might there have been a North American theater to the Napoleonic Wars (and I will for the moment presume that the non-ARW factors which made France ripe for revolution and for Napoleon's rise to power still work together to produce both) as there was in the Seven Years War? If so, Louisiana might end up in British hands by 1815 (maybe along w/Hispaniola & Puerto Rico). GB could form continental regiments to do the bulk of the fighting, all for the glory of King, God and Empire - and to burn off the colonials' revolutionary energy.

At any rate, by the late 1790s in a no ARW world demographic & political pressures will build again in British North America to the point where Parliament will need to ponder "what do we do with the colonies in N.A.?" The British government will not have many years to kick that can down the road, especially if the Irish Question comes up as per OTL (which might work to Ireland's advantage, or conversely, to N.A.'s disadvantage). At any rate, perhaps by 1805/10 GB would reorganize BNA into 4 or 5 dominions. Now, regarding Louisiana, w/o the Napoleonic Wars to fight (now presuming that the non-ARW factors which made France ripe for revolution and for Napoleon's rise to power don't work together to produce either - or at least not the Imperial France that we all know and love) might GB seek to purchase Louisiana from Spain as it moves into Oregon Country - perhaps known as New Brunswick, New Albion or Vancouveria :D in such a TL?
 
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