PC : Ezo sold to a European country

On the other hand, Japan might decide that the deal was not a good idea, that they had been taken advantage of by foreign powers and that a war to recover the land might be in order. Rather than ally with the colonizing power after selling it, they might care to ally with one of its enemies. Japan itself would be 20 miles from the territory while European powers would be thousands. It's much like Tsushima.
 
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Interesting discussion but I think we're vastly overestimating the situation. Japan was in the middle of massive changes during this time. Forceful contact with the outside world after 200 years of extremely limited interaction, the decline of the Tokugawa Shogunate and the beginning of the rise of the Imperial Court and the Satsuma and Chōshū domains. The internal situation was extremely precarious and I can't see the Japanese ruling class accepting the Shogunate selling parts of the country. Legally I'm not even sure if Edo could do that. After all Ezo was in the prevue of the Matsumae domain and any selling of that territory would require the Matsumae's consent. It would be like the US government selling a state. And even IF the action is legal I can see it triggering an early Boshin war, though more of the domains will probably side with Kyoto rather then the Shogunate.

After that the Imperial army would rapidly occupy Ezo/Hokkaido and put whomever purchased it (lets say Germany to keep everything up to code with the rest of the discussion) in an awkward position: either they send an expeditionary force to retake the island or negotiate some kind of face saving agreement. Then there's the potential problems in Europe. Britain and France had tremendous influence in Japan and I can't see either nation taking Prussia/Germany muscling into "their" sphere of influence lying down. Ultimately the idea is interesting but highly unlikely to full go through.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

@Chris Triangle, Emperor Const.
You might have missed the little fact that even the Tenno´s side was willing to sell Ezo in the early years after their victory, just for a much higher price.
And that Bismarck exactly to safeguard Prussia´s/Germany´s newest "state" from a change of mind in Tokio, wanted to do a joint development of Ezo/Hokkaido, in the case he bought it.

And I truly think you overestimate the the importance of Japan in London and Paris in the 1860s/70s. I researched for my TLs really old-fashioned by going into the "stuffy" archives as well. And Japan was not high on the list of France and Britain. Their focus was elsewhere. And we can scratch France at all, since the Franco-Prussian war either already was or was soon coming, as far as this PoD is concerned.
And I want to underline the fact, that this discussion goes about the time of 1860s/70s, not 1914. The political situation Germany-Britain was different and much less tense.
 
I'm not really debating you on that, I'm saying that whoever buys it will be defending it 30 to 40 years later. Japan can sell it in the 1860's but I fail to see why it can't come back to retake it decades later when it is prepared to do so and, when the country has become more important at the international level.

That does not however mean that a decision to sell such a land would not have big consequences. On the contrary, they would be enormous.
 

Beer

Banned
I'm not really debating you on that, I'm saying that whoever buys it will be defending it 30 to 40 years later. Japan can sell it in the 1860's but I fail to see why it can't come back to retake it decades later when it is prepared to do so and, when the country has become more important at the international level.

That does not however mean that a decision to sell such a land would not have big consequences. On the contrary, they would be enormous.

Hi!

Ah, I see the way your coming from. But there are two things which might help the Europeans. One is the fact that Japan sold it without pressure fair and square instead being forced. And no matter how flexible Tokio can be, there is another level of honour involved in a real sale than being forced into it.
The other is relatively germano-centric. When I stumbled on this little forgotten "What if" gem, I researched a bit deeper into that matter. (Btw, in "Eisen, Blut..." the main PoD is a different one. Maybe you look at my humble story and comment on it)
Bismarck´s idea of a joint development in the case of Prussia/Germany buying Ezo is the gamechanger. Bismarck felt that Japan would go her way and if buying the Island, cooperation would ensure even greater German influence on Japan´s modernisation and keep Ezo savely in German hands. It would be far nicer for Tokio in having additional defenders on Hokkaido against the Russians, than breaking contracts.
And how well the German-Japanese relations back then were even OTL can be seen in the book "Ferne Gefährten" = Far away Companions(2011) in the chapter "Golden Years".

I, as a German, still want to kick Willy II. ass for letting his paranoia getting the better of him. Germany could have gotten the alliance Britain got, actually Tokio proposed an alliance to Berlin before London, and would never have counted Japan among her enemies.
That it was Will´s short sightedness can be seen how fast the relations normalised after WW1.
Considering how well the relations G-J mostly were already in OTL, I think a joint development of Ezo for such a long time would have influenced both Willi and Tokio for the better. I cannot see Japan trying to take back Ezo under these circumstances just for the heck of it.
 
You have some very interesting ideas here.

I do agree that an alliance between Germany and Japan made a great of sense. I have always thought that given Japan's national ambitions at that time, Germany was a far more logical ally than Britain. But given Japan's actions, it seems clear that they were especially intent on securing their nation's perimeter against any potential rivals and I'm still not convinced it wouldn't become a problem. Expansionism was often done for little real reason other than national pride and European possession of Hokkaido would be a bit too reminiscent of Hong Kong and Macau. Japan abandoned claims to Sakhalin in 1875 but was still eager to try to take the island when it could. Hokkaido, which already had more than a few Japanese living on it and which is very close to the home islands, would be very enticing to nationalists. Nationalists are after all, driven by passion and rhetoric and not by reasonable logic. If they did decide to move away from Germany over irredentism, Britain and even Russia would likely be willing to cooperate.

Perhaps a genuine alliance would allow for the two nations to avoid future friction while maintaining the benefits of the German presence. Japan could be allowed to buy the island back for a fair price while allowing Germany to keep assets there including ownership of land and businesses by German citizens and companies, guarantee of special development and investment rights for Germany there. Such an act would show Japan that Germany was trustworthy as an ally and not potentially threatening in its intentions. By keeping the island within its sphere of influence, Germany would have a sort of foothold in Japan that no other European nation would. This is however, merely my raw speculation. I have no idea how the two nations would actually interact over the matter.
 
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Beer

Banned
Hi!

@Chris Triangle

Yes, most irredentism is not grounded much on logic and problems like you describe could pop up. In the case of Sachalin, this is different in that there were Russians, which were definite rivals of Japan. And that Tokio would try to secure the perimeter against nations with great ambitions in East Asia, is equally clear. Still, I think Germany or another nation with her focus outside the Pacific cuold slide by that problem.

In "Eisen, Blut..." German-Japanese relations already change during the Eulenburg expedition with Japan getting an offer Tokio can be sure to not get from any other Great Power out there. So the ATL Japanese are sure of Prussia/Germany´s positive intentions early on.

If we go to an ATL closer to the OTL situation, let´s say Bismarck is very intent on rallying all support for the Kulturkampf to get a full "win", that he buys Ezo even for the higher price the early Meji government set.
Now Germany has Ezo and Bismarck follows his idea of a joint development. This is part hard calculation by the chancellor, part genuine sympathy for the Japanese due to the first impression from the Eulenburg expedition, the later developments and the Takeuchi delegation. This would be a different general treatment which should convince the Japanese of the German intentions and more with Germany´s focus still solidly on Europe, Tokio should be sure that German Ezo is no danger to them, but potential help. Russian designs on Japan would definitely endanger German Ezo, so Berlin would be interested in keeping Japan upright.

The "Ferne Gefährten" book describes the German-Japanese relations over the last 150 years and even back then there was enough basic sympathy. Not only in that book, but other sources and my experiences with the Japanese show me that Germans and Japanese share some basic outlooks the Japanese do not or only partly with other Europeans, which are the switch why a German Hokkaido should function long-term with not much friction.

With Ezo already a long time part of Germany when Willi II comes into power, this would force him to keep course there, no matter his personal paranoia. And who knows, his alter ego in that TL might not have it, due to the closer contact and hence more clear situation.
 
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