PC: Expansionist Shogunate Japan?

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Need a plausibility check on an idea I had for a TL.
The scenario here is that the Tokugawa Shogunate of the Edo period, after experiencing the cultural challenges of the Dutch and Portuguese traders, and seeing first hand the wealth and development that overseas trade can bring to an international power, decides that the lazy Samurai class needs a purpose and fashions them into an imperial force.

1. Between 1603 - 1868 (Edo period) where could Japan realistically go to conquer?

2. Could colonization plausibly work under the Shogunate-Daimyo system?
 
The Tokugawas were more concerned with fixing their internal affairs and legitimizing their initially shaky rule over Japan. The problem with the samurai class was that it was too active for the Tokugawas after the ruthless conquest of Nobunaga and the ambitious war of Hideyoshi. Ieyasu wanted peace and isolation. The destabilization caused by guns, the Ikko-Ikki, and the Japanese Christians, combined with the invasion of Korea, taught the Tokugawa clan precisely that going out into the world as they were - until recently war-torn and ravaged by division - was a bad idea, especially for maintaining their own power.

You want an expansionist shogunate, you change the family to one more amenable to such western ideas. Have someone like Oda Nobunaga at the helm, or possibly a cabal of Christian daimyos.

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In any case, the Tokugawa shogunate has few options to actually expand. Hideyoshi's Korean adventure already shows the difficulty of taking the eastern route, let alone taking China. They could spend more on colonizing Ezo and the north before the Russians get it, but to what end?

And of course, there is Taiwan and the south, malaria-infested and full of sullen natives. A concerted effort with the Dutchmen to conquer it at the beginning of the Edo period could possibly be enough to take it, but again, to what end? Those islands were where all those exiled Japanese nobles went to escape religious persecution.

As for colonization, well, the closest OTL thing I can remember is the Kingdom of Ryukyu which was vassalized by the Shimazu. So, I guess it can work?
 
Taking and holding Taiwan is probably possible.
The Philippines, or portions thereof, are another obvious target. I would think that Japan is enough closer than Spain is that Japan could provide more forces than Spain.

Plus, as mentioned, fill up Hokkaido, then continue north (at least in terms of bases, forts and trading posts) up Sakhalin and the Kuriles.
 
Slightly OT, but why didn't Japan colonize Sakhalin/Karafuto in OTL? Many have pointed out that geographically, it resembles a 5th home island.
 
Even if he manages to do so, it's likely that the Japanese get ousted from Korea in the instability resulting from his death and subsequent succession struggle.

Which is why I think, even though it might require a mental-temperament ASB for Ieyasu, it's better to wonder what an expansionist Japan would look like under the relative stability of the Edo period - even if it is just in Hokkaido or Sakhalin.

And moreover, it seems to me given the roving bands of bored samurai warriors there was enough cannon fodder so to speak to engage in some Conquistador-esqe adventurism, courtesy of any Daimyo willing to foot the bill on behalf of the Shogun
 
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Could Japan try to conquer land in the East Indies? The spice trade was pretty lucrative during this time period, so the financial incentives would be there.
 
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