PC:Ethiopian Expulsion of Somalis Post Ogaden war = Earlier Collapse of Somalia

Could Ethiopia Expel the Somali Population of Ogaden region following the Ogaden war

Would all those refugees lead to collapse of the Somalian government in the late 1970s or early 1980s or would the extra ogaden refugees allow Mohamed Siad Barre to suppress Opposing Clans

Would Somalia be able to stabilize by the end of cold war

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogaden_War
 
Could Ethiopia Expel the Somali Population of Ogaden region following the Ogaden war

Would all those refugees lead to collapse of the Somalian government in the late 1970s or early 1980s or would the extra ogaden refugees allow Mohamed Siad Barre to suppress Opposing Clans

Would Somalia be able to stabilize by the end of cold war

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogaden_War
Easy NATO and Arab intervention.

Ethiopia is a major nation in Africa whichever superpower holds sway there will have more or less easier time dealing with sub Saharan Africa. And that's the reason the USSR dropped the Somalis in favour for the Ethiopian government at the time (DERG) during the Ogaden war.

Despite being defeated the government of Siad Barre was connected enough with the Arab league and the western powers. That means if the DERG starts to ethnically cleanse te Somalis they'd face international blowback which would see the US intervene using human right concerns as the cases belli.

Also the the other ethnic groups would look at the Somalis situation and would think after them we're next and in no time the DERG army will fracture as members from different ethnic groups desert which would lead to a Yugoslav cluster fuck of a civil war that would make the otl civil war look tame. And expect the Somalis to jump on the Ethiopians again in order to protect their brothers across the border.

All in all the biggest winners would be the Somalis, this may even save the Barre regime.
 
It would massively inflame the situation in the Ogaden, since the region is majority (by a sizable margin) Somali, and a large enough majority to make it a near-impossible task for the Derg. The majority of those Somalis are from one clan too (also called Ogaden), so that's yet another problem.
 
Despite being defeated the government of Siad Barre was connected enough with the Arab league and the western powers. That means if the DERG starts to ethnically cleanse te Somalis they'd face international blowback which would see the US intervene using human right concerns as the cases belli.
Given this 3 years after Vietnam and the Us didn't bomb Iran over the hostage crisis or do anything similar with other Soviet client states , why would they over a bunch of Somalis and couldn't the Soviet union protect them
 
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It would massively inflame the situation in the Ogaden, since the region is majority (by a sizable margin) Somali, and a large enough majority to make it a near-impossible task for the Derg.
So were the Germans in large parts of western Poland that didn't stop them from being expel
 
So were the Germans in large parts of western Poland that didn't stop them from being expel

There's a huge difference between the capabilities of the Ethiopian Army in the late 70s and the capabilities of the Soviet Army (and associates) in the late 40s. The Derg do not have the capability to expel Somalis to the level the Soviets did to the Germans, and the world is not likely to sit back and watch them do it.
 
There won't be Western intervention, Ethiopia was a Soviet client and no one gives a damn about ethnic cleansing of or atrocities against Africans, unless it was a White settler colony, which was behind it. As for Arab intervention, the Saudi and allies are a military joke and no Western power will fight for them at this point, Egypt are too busy making a deal with Israel and Sudan are busy murdering, rape, enslave and ethnic cleanse Black South Sudanese.
 
There's a huge difference between the capabilities of the Ethiopian Army in the late 70s and the capabilities of the Soviet Army (and associates) in the late 40s. The Derg do not have the capability to expel Somalis to the level the Soviets did to the Germans
There have been multiple ethnic cleansing in different third world countries , How would this be any different . Can't they do the standard forcing them out of there homes at gunpoint and threats of violence.
 
I feel this would backfire in multiple ways, including in giving the people of Eritrea future worries, which might lead to the independence of Eritrea ending up with either more or less than just the borders of Italian Eritrea. I know there are still various minor disputes between the two countries, but if the monarchy and military of Ethiopia tried to ethnically cleanse a geographic third of the country? Not going to go over well. I suppose we should think over the official reasons to expel the Somalis. Not that there is much in the way of an acceptable excuse for clearing an area based on ethnicity, but the official reasons will have some sway on international opinion future views of the Ethiopians and Somalis.
 
but if the monarchy and military of Ethiopia tried to ethnically cleanse a geographic third of the country?
Ethiopia was lead by the dreg during the Ogaden war and somali make up 6 % of the population
but the official reasons will have some sway on international opinion future views of the Ethiopians and Somalis.
You could just claim your cleaning out insurgents or capitalists , who all happen to be Somali .
 
That 6% is concentrated almost entirely in 1/3 of the country and also would be useful to stop communism since their existance is sapping the Derg's strength and undermining their regime and by extension, the Soviets. Fighting communism, humanitarian aid, all such excuses can be used. Maybe they wouldn't get as many weapons as the Afghan mujahideen, but it shouldn't be too hard to drop lots of weapons in the Ogaden region for the Somalis to use.

The best strategy would be to divide and conquer, and focus the main atrocities against the majority Ogaden clan and try and get the other Somali clans there to do your work for you. If you try and expel all Somalis, you're wasting a lot of effort.
 
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