PC - Ethiopia receives Eritrea earlier?

The scenario I have in mind for this is outlined below:

In 1940-41, Ethiopia is liberated from Italian occupation as she was IOTL but the issue of British visions for the Horn of Africa post-WWII cause conflict between London and Addis - the British wish to give the Ogaden to a Greater Somali state and separate Tigray from Ethiopia to establish a pan-Tigrayan state in Eritrea. However, pressure from the USA convinced the UK to abandon these idealistic dreams and allow for Ethiopia to reclaim the Ogaden in the early 1950s while receiving Eritrea in the 1960s.

What if London had decided to compromise with Ethiopia instead? In this scenario, Britain is willing to cede Eritrea in its entirety (with economic concessions and investment opportunities to London) to Ethiopian control but in return for Ethiopia ceding a chunk of the Ogaden to a future Greater Somalia that is currently under British administration. A particularly juicy part of the deal is having London abandon the special areas that came under their administration after the Liberation of Ethiopia and return them to the control of the Ethiopian government. Emperor Haile Selassie I finds this to be an irresistible deal and agrees to give up a chunk of the Ogaden to the British in return for what was promised above.

How plausible is this? What effects could there be on the Horn of Africa with earlier Ethiopian control of Eritrea and Somali control of (part of) the Ogaden?
 
I don't know. Would Ethiopia/Eritrea and Somalia/Ogaden be able to stay together into the present day, or would these regions still fall into war in the 1970s and 1980s?
 
I don't know. Would Ethiopia/Eritrea and Somalia/Ogaden be able to stay together into the present day, or would these regions still fall into war in the 1970s and 1980s?
Without the Ogaden war and instability that ensued afterwords Somalia will stay together.
 
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I don't know. Would Ethiopia/Eritrea and Somalia/Ogaden be able to stay together into the present day, or would these regions still fall into war in the 1970s and 1980s?
I think there's a fair chance that they could but there's also a good chance that they may suffer through those same events, depending on what occurs ITTL.
Would Siad Barre still take over Somalia?
I don't think so, considering he came to power on the promise of establishing a Greater Somalia which is addressed with the conceding of Ogaden to Somalia. However, this doesn't take into account what TTL's Somalia will do in regards to Kenya and Djibouti so the inability to acquire these regions might lead to his coming to power.
 
It seems likely. Eritrea and the functioning seaboard is a very good prize for Ethiopia and worth giving up the Ogaden for. I suppose the only specifications would be ensuring the Christians and Muslims on both sides are respected and treated well.
 
It seems likely. Eritrea and the functioning seaboard is a very good prize for Ethiopia and worth giving up the Ogaden for. I suppose the only specifications would be ensuring the Christians and Muslims on both sides are respected and treated well.
Now we only need to have London stop dicking around in Ethiopia and encouraging ethnic tensions :openedeyewink:
 
Assuming Britain gave Eritrea to Ethiopia in exchange for Ogaden for Somalia, what do you think would happen? I reckon that things would be better in the long run.
That's a good question and I'm tempted to say that things would be better off in the long run but I'm not completely sure - an Ethiopia that's annexed Eritrea earlier might be more robust economically, especially if Italian industries in the province haven't been withdrawn as war booty, and even more modernized.
 
That's a good question and I'm tempted to say that things would be better off in the long run but I'm not completely sure - an Ethiopia that's annexed Eritrea earlier might be more robust economically, especially if Italian industries in the province haven't been withdrawn as war booty, and even more modernized.

Yeah that's likely. Perhaps a better economy might been the monarch does not fall?
 
If Haile Selassie manages to avoid the mistakes made IOTL and implement the needed reforms, I think there's a very good chance that the Monarchy might remain in Ethiopia.

You think the presence of Eritrea would help him with that? Would mean he and Britain would be on good ters
 
You think the presence of Eritrea would help him with that? Would mean he and Britain would be on good terms?
If the Eritrean intelligentsia doesn't go and rebel, it might take the place of the Ethiopian intelligentsia and encourage him towards cracking down on the nobility and pushing through the reforms needed to modernize Ethiopia. I don't know if he'd be on good terms with the British, especially with their efforts aimed at destabilizing Ethiopia IOTL.
 
If the Eritrean intelligentsia doesn't go and rebel, it might take the place of the Ethiopian intelligentsia and encourage him towards cracking down on the nobility and pushing through the reforms needed to modernize Ethiopia. I don't know if he'd be on good terms with the British, especially with their efforts aimed at destabilizing Ethiopia IOTL.

Probably not. I doubt the intelligentsia would want to rebel and so on, especially after such a situation. I am thinking that the USA would support Ethiopia if the Etriean intelligentsia recommend it and so on. Would help push reforms and the British would not wanna mess with the USA.

Hell, if the British got caught, the USA would tell them to fuck off and then they'd really get annoyed when the British would ask them for help in Iran XD
 
Probably not. I doubt the intelligentsia would want to rebel and so on, especially after such a situation. I am thinking that the USA would support Ethiopia if the Eritrean intelligentsia recommend it and so on. Would help push reforms and the British would not wanna mess with the USA.

Hell, if the British got caught, the USA would tell them to fuck off and then they'd really get annoyed when the British would ask them for help in Iran XD
That depends - IOTL, the new generation of educated intellectuals came to despise the older generation of intellectuals because they had become soft and unwilling to push HS to implement the reforms needed for Ethiopia to modernize because they were unwilling to risk their positions. That might happen here.

I'd have to check whether or not the UK got caught IOTL but I think you bring up a good point, especially if Ethiopia cites the Atlantic Charter.
 
Based on the question by the OP, I'd say it'll be much better case for both Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia will at least have a coast and Somalia have more land with little cost. Ogaden was a site of contention between Ethiopian government and Somali rebels in OTL. Thus, it'll be good in the long run, saving headaches for the Ethiopian government. And that's assuming the Christians and Muslims on both sides are respected and treated well as equal citizens.

That and Haile Selassie should avoid the mistakes made IOTL and implement the needed reforms, that way the Monarchy might remain in Ethiopia in this scenario.
 
Based on the question by the OP, I'd say it'll be much better case for both Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia will at least have a coast and Somalia have more land with little cost. Ogaden was a site of contention between Ethiopian government and Somali rebels in OTL. Thus, it'll be good in the long run, saving headaches for the Ethiopian government. And that's assuming the Christians and Muslims on both sides are respected and treated well as equal citizens.

That and Haile Selassie should avoid the mistakes made IOTL and implement the needed reforms, that way the Monarchy might remain in Ethiopia in this scenario.
Ehhh, Somali rebels only became a major problem in the 1960s - thanks to Mogadishu's pretensions on the Ogaden - but you make many good points.
 
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