PC: Eastern Fall Gelb

I'm working on an alternate WW2 scenario and I was wondering if I could get some advice on it.

The basic idea is that there is no Molotov/Ribbentrop Pact and Nazi Germany was able to get Poland to align with them against the Soviets (the Soviets agreed to stop at the Curzon line during the Polish-Soviet War ITTL which throws up a number of butterflies). As a result, when alt-Barbarossa comes around the Soviets have concentrated most of their forces and defences on the border with Poland. Instead of charging headlong into the Soviet forces the Germans decide to invade the neutral Baltic states in order to outflank the Curzon line, and make a push for Leningrad.

How effective would this be as a military strategy?

Obviously the less developed infrastructure of the Baltic States doesn't exactly make them ideal for a blitzkrieg the same way that the Low Countries were.
 
A lot of butter flies all directions indeed.

What kind of Nazi Germany is this that does not make a deal with the USSR? Would they be able to attack France like they did OTL? What about the USSR's interests in the deal that won't be doable now? What would the allies response to all this mean?

A Polish-Soviet war would not happen as Stalin wouldn't antagonize neither Germany nor the UK and France like that. A war with either of them is not what he could use at that time period. He would probably focus on Romania, possibly try to find nations to bully and put up against the Germans, including the baltic states. You are probably looking at a pre-invasion border between Poland and the USSR, with German troops strengthening it. That would be a better position to attack the baltic states then on the Curzon line border as the territory is much wider and easier to traverse. How efective this is i can't tell. The main goal is Moscow still, a lot harder to reach in that way and without knowing the situation in the east there is no telling how it would work out.
 
A lot of butter flies all directions indeed.

What kind of Nazi Germany is this that does not make a deal with the USSR? Would they be able to attack France like they did OTL? What about the USSR's interests in the deal that won't be doable now? What would the allies response to all this mean?

A Polish-Soviet war would not happen as Stalin wouldn't antagonize neither Germany nor the UK and France like that. A war with either of them is not what he could use at that time period. He would probably focus on Romania, possibly try to find nations to bully and put up against the Germans, including the baltic states. You are probably looking at a pre-invasion border between Poland and the USSR, with German troops strengthening it. That would be a better position to attack the baltic states then on the Curzon line border as the territory is much wider and easier to traverse. How efective this is i can't tell. The main goal is Moscow still, a lot harder to reach in that way and without knowing the situation in the east there is no telling how it would work out.

I meant the 1919-1921 Polish-Soviet War. OTL the Soviets were doing quite well up until 1920. Some of the Soviet leaders (including Trotsky) wanted to sue for peace and accept the border suggested by the British i.e. the Curzon line. Instead the Soviets pressed the attack and got horribly beaten in the Battle of Warsaw, and as a result the Poles were able to take a large chunk of Ukrainian and Belarusian territory.

ITTL the Soviets take up the British offer and agree to stop at the Curzon line. As a result Poland is much weaker, and thus more likely to side with Germany against the threat of the Soviet Union. Poland is also going to be much more right-wing without the large ethnic minorities in the east and strong nationalist presence in the west, as well as Pilsudski not having the prestige of beating the Soviets.

There are also some other butterflies involved with regards to European geopolitics, most notably the USSR now shares a border with Czechoslovakia which is going to have an impact on the Munich Agreement.
 
In the 20's the Soviets were very concerned that a German- Polish alliance would be formed with the intent to attack them. So with some work I think your idea is solid.
 
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